Wimbledon: Men’s Semi Finals
Serena Williams will take on Angelique Kerber in a repeat of the Australian Open Final tomorrow night but tonight it is all about the men, and two men in particular – Roger and Andy. Both are coming off tough 5 set victories in the quarters and will have to overcome a avalanche of aces against two of the tour’s biggest servers in Raonic and Berdych. We could be in for a long night…
Milos Raonic v Roger Federer
It’s the apprentice against the master in a classic clash of styles. Milos Raonic has promised so much since bursting onto the scene and he gets another chance at making a maiden grand slam final. He has made the quarter finals or better on 4 occasions and is 0-2 in semi finals at slam level. In comparison his opponent, the one and only Roger Federer, has 47 quarter final appearances at the slams and at one points was 22-3 in slam semi finals. There is hope though for Raonic ans Federer’s record in big matches has tailed off since the 2010 US Open. He is 5-9 since then but at Wimbledon his record is almost flawless. Federer is 10-0 in semi’s here and 7-3 in Finals. He also leads the H2H between the two men 9-2 including wins in both of their matches on grass. The Canadian will draw on his victory over Federer earlier in the year in Brisbane but the reality is that he had won just 1 of the previous 19 sets the pair had contested. In the past Federer has used chip returns with great success against Milos and has also exposed the big Canadian’s backhand and poor court coverage. Raonic likes to run around his backhand and it will leave him exposed yet again. The first serve of Raonic will be key but it is what he does with the first ball that will determine if he has a chance. Raonic MUST go for it early otherwise he will be exposed. the Wolf says Federer will draw on all of his experience and with Raonic only a chance in breakers Federer at the line is the best bet in this one.
Tip: Federer -2.5 ($1.83)
Tomas Berdych v Andy Murray
This matchup has been a tale of two tapes. Early on it was all Berdych who won 3 of their first 4 encounters. Through 2012/13 they had three wins a piece but since it has been all Murray. The Brit has won the last 4 encounters and is on a 9 set win streak against the Birdman. the twists and turns don’t stop there either. At this year’s Championships they have also taken different paths. Murray was in devastating form in the opening week but had to pull out all the stops against Tsonga in the quarters. Berdych on the other hand had lost complete control of his serve last week – dropping sets to Dodig and Zverev before a 5 set win over Vesely. He swept that to the side in the quarters where he completely frustrated Pouille, winning in straight sets. Murray’s court coverage and defensive abilities will be on full display in this one. Berdych though will get his fare share of free points – both from his serve and from the weight of his ground strokes which he will get full reward from on the grass. Andy will eventually wear him down but this will have a very similar pattern to his match against Tsonga. The total is set far too low in this one and The wolf will be heavy on the Overs.
Tip: Over 35.5 games ($1.83)
Day 11 Tips
|Raonic v Federer||Best: Federer -2.5 ($1.83)
Value: Sets Federer 3-1 ($4.00)
|Berdych v Murray||Best: Over 35.5 games ($1.83)
Value: 1st Set Correct Score 7-6 ($3.00)
Thursday ROI: 43.25%
Feature Previews: 17-11
Overall ROI: 102.81%