Wimbledon Day 6: 3rd Round Tips

Wimbledon previews and tips

Wimbledon: 3rd Round

The rain simply will not go away at The Championships as we saw a little over a handful of matches completed overnight. Nick Kyrgios won the battle of the big serves against Dustin Brown while Del Potro continued his resurgence with a four set victory over Stan Wawrinka. The Argentine was helped by a inconsistent Wawrinka who basically capitulated. Del Potro had just 5 ground stroke winners in his victory – hardly enough to get past guys ranked outside the top 100. Nevertheless, it will help with his confidence and opens up the draw.

One man that didn’t struggle was Roger Federer. When the roof is closed on centre court there is no one better. If the roof were to remain closed for the entire tournament he would steam roll everyone, and that includes Novak! On the topic of Novak he may not be around much longer. The world number one is down two sets to love for the second consecutive year here. Querrey, who The Wolf predicted would trouble Djokoivic, won the opening two sets 7-6 6-1 before rain halted play. He is in a huge hole when play resumes tonight.

For the first time since 2004 we will have play on the middle Sunday, a traditional rest day, due to the backlog of matches. There will be plenty of Aussie interest tonight with Tomic, Kyrgios and Millman all in action. There is also the prospect of another 5 set epic when Isner takes on Tsonga on court 2. As always The Wolf gives us his feature previews and best bets.

Feature Previews

Roberto Bautista-Agut v Bernard Tomic
It’s been a battle but Bernie has made his way into the 3rd round. A 5 set epic over multiple days against Verdasco was followed by a grinding win over little known Radu Albot. The Wolf successfully tipped us into the Overs in the match against Verdasco before almost declaring Albot +7 which was another easy winner. Unlike Tomic, Bautista-Agut has spent very little time on court. He rolled past Jordan Thompson before a walkover in the 2nd round. In just two rounds Tomic has already logged 3 additional hours on court and although fatigue shouldn’t be a factor the constant rain delays and matches played over several days are of little help. One thing we know about the Spaniard is you have to beat him. He makes very few errors and has no weakness from the baseline. In recent seasons he has won the matches he is supposed to. It has shown even here at Wimbledon where the last two men to beat him are Federer and Murray. He is not your typical Spanish player and has even won a title on grass. Bautista-Agut has two titles to his name this season and if Tomic isn’t at the top of his game. Rain is expected again and the slower conditions will definitely suit Bautista-Agut who has a superior ability in terms of generating his own power from the back of the court. There have been cracks in the Tomic game and The Wolf says you want to have your money on the Spaniard in this one.
Tip: Bautista-Agut WIN ($1.80)
4-5-Chips

John Millman v Andy Murray
Andy Murray has been in scintillating form this season and his opening two matches have been no exception. John Millman will have his work cut out for him but the pair have met once before and the Aussie more than held his own. It was a fast hard court in Brisbane a few years back and Millman was able to take a set of Murray before the Brit prevailed in 3 tight sets. Millman did several things well on that occasion and there is no doubt he will look to employ similar tactics. To start with there is less than a handful of players that can trade blows from the baseline with success against Murray and Millman isn’t one of them. To counter that he will look to get into the net as often as possible an provide only narrow targets for Murray to pass. Millman did this with success in their only other meeting and the reason it worked well was because he used variety. He approached using the slice but also hit through his backhand both up the line and cross court. This aggressive brand of tennis is the only way he will be able to get into the match and although The Wolf thinks Murray will prevail, Millman will win more than enough games to send the total over.
Tip: Over 28.5 games ($1.83)
4-Chips

John Isner v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
With rain predicted the organisers should have done everything possible to get this match on centre court where there is a roof. We could see a repeat of the Isner/Mahut clash which ended 70-68 a few years back and with the rain set to come and go over the next few days this one could still be going come Monday. Isner matches are renowned for the tiebreakers and the American has continued that trend this week. 5 of the 6 sets contested by Isner have been tiebreakers and there has now been at least one breaker in 19 of his last 20 matches. At Wimbledon, 36 of the 54 sets he has played have gone the distance (tiebreaker) and he has now won 28 of the last 29 tiebreakers he has contested this season. The pair have met on 4 occasions (Isner leads 3-1) with a breaker in each match and a total of 6 across the four meetings. This match screams Overs and the only way it doesn’t go over is if Isner wins 3 consecutive breakers. The Wolf says to have a big go on the Overs with a small save on Isner in straight sets.
Tip: Over 46.5 games ($1.83)
4-5-Chips

Nick Kyrgios v Feliciano Lopez
In what shapes as another serving duel both men venture into uncharted waters. They find themselves backing up the very next day after posting tough 5 set victories which will make winning the opening set all the more crucial. Lopez leads the H2H 2-0 with 3 of the 4 sets contested being settle via a tiebreaker. This is the most successful slam for both players – Kyrgios is 7-2 lifetime with a 4th round and quarter finals showing in his two appearances while Lopez is a 3 time quarter finalist. Lopez is a very tricky opponent for Kyrgios and similar to Dustin Brown in many ways. He has a towering serve and looks to approach the net as often as possible. He is more accomplished at the net than Brown, and Kyrgios for that matter, and is a much smarter player in terms of point construction. Lopez will look to change the tempo of the rallies with his slice and force Kyrgios to hit through him. Breaks of serve will be hard to come by and the value lies in a first set tiebreaker. Those wanting to back a player outright should go with the experience of Lopez. He has won both prior meetings and his ability to finish points at the net will make it very tough for Kyrgios.
Tip: 1st Set Correct Score 7-6 ($2.70)
3-5-Chips

Day 6 Tips
Match Tips
Goffin v Istomin Istomin WIN ($4.50)
Kuznetsov v Nishikori Under 36.5 games ($1.83)
Sock v Raonic Sets Raonic 3-1 ($3.50)
Bautista-Agut v Tomic Bautista-Agut WIN ($1.80)
Millman v Murray Over 28.5 games ($1.83)
Gasquet v Ramos-Vinolas Gasquet -6.5 ($2.00)
Vesely v Sousa 1st Set Scorecast – Vesely 7-6 ($4.50)
Pouille v Del Potro Over 35.5 games ($1.83)
Isner v Tsonga Over 46.5 games ($1.83)
Kyrgios v Lopez 1st Set Correct Score 7-6 ($2.70)

Best: Isner v Tsonga – Over 46.5 games ($1.83)
Best Value: Kyrgios v Lopez – 1st Set Correct Score 7-6 ($2.70)

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