US Open Day 5
We start getting into the business end of the tournament as the seeds start to face one another. Several of The Wolf’s value picks to win their respective quarters are still alive with Tsonga, Monfils and Bautista-Agut all making their way through.
Monfils in particular has been in great touch and should have little trouble getting past Almagro. On Day 5 The Wolf thinks that both Djokovic and Nadal will have a much tougher time than expected. Youzhny has defeated Novak on multiple occasions while Kuznetsov pushed Nadal to a deciding set in their only meeting on a hard court earlier this year in Doha.
Here are The Wolf’s winners for Day 5.
Novak Djokovic v Mikhail Youzhny
Djokovic had a walkover in the 2nd round but after struggling in his opening match you probably would have preferred to get another match under his belt. Fitness is not an issue for the world number 1 and getting early momentum at the slams is always important. The experienced Youzhny has posed Djoka some troubles in the past. The Russian has taken a set off him in each of their last three encounters and has also managed to win 3 of their 9 meetings. Variety has been the key for Youzhny in those matches and The Wolf expects him to employ the slice backhand on a regular basis. Once Novak gets the upper hand he will run away with it but don’t be shocked if the Russian wins a set.
Tip: Over 29.5 games ($1.83)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Kevin Anderson
It’s the 3rd round encounter we predicted would eventuate in this quarter of the draw and it certainly won’t disappoint. The pair have met on two previous occasions and both went down to the wire. Tgonsa needed two breakers to win on clay and they went the distance in Shanghai last year with the Frenchman again grabbing the cash. Both men made then quarters here last year with Anderson famously knocking out Andy Murray in the 4th round. The South African has been in almost identical form thus far and has been completely dominant in his opening two matches. The pair have thundered down 33 aces a piece and are winning over 80% of their first serve points. The Wolf isn’t expecting many breaks of serve in this one and with 3 of the 5 sets they have contested being settled by a tiebreak the Overs is a special. Can’t see either man winning this in straight sets. Overs!
Tip: Over 42.5 games ($1.83)
Gael Monfils v Nicolas Almagro
The Wolf marked Monfils as one of his bolters for the tournament and he is right on track. He has blasted his way into the 3rd round and it is crucial that he does the same against Almagro. The Spaniard may lead the H2H 3-2 but all of those wins came on clay. Monfils has won both of their hard court encounters and since they last met in 2013, it is Monfils who has taken his game to the next level. The key has been consistency. His last three losses have all come against players ranked higher than him, namely, Djokovic, Nishikori and Thiem. He has been in devastating form on the American hard courts and The Wolf cannot get enough on him to win this one.
Tip: Monfils -6.5 ($1.83)
Jack Sock v Marin Cilic
People must really be buying into the hype of Jack Sock as there is no way that Cilic should be $1.40 to win this match outright. The Wolf says he should be closer to $1.20 and has him rated as a genuine chance to win a second US Open title. He has been in scintillating form and is on a 8 match win streak. He played flawless tennis last week in Cincinnati taking down Troicki, Verdasco, Berdych, Coric, Dimitrov and Murray en route to the title. Sock crushed Zverev in his last match but will not be afforded the same opportunity against Cilic. He was able to dominate from the back of the court – something that will not be as easy to accomplish against Cilic. In addition, Cilic will look to expose the Sock backhand which is a distinct weakness. Cilic will fend off the early onslaught before Sock becomes increasingly frustrated, resulting in an array of unforced errors off his racquet. Cilic in straight is huge value here.
Tip: Sets Cilic 3-0 ($3.00)
US Open – Day 5 Tips
|Djokovic v Youzhny||Over 29.5 games ($1.83)|
|Tsonga v Anderson||Over 42.5 games ($1.83)|
|Monfils v Almagro||Monfils -6.5 ($1.83)|
|Baghdatis v Harrison||Sets Total – 5 Sets ($2.75)|
|Sock v Cilic||Sets Cilic 3-0 ($3.00)|
|Nadal v Kuznetsov||Over 32.5 games ($1.83)|
|Pouille v Bautista-Agut||Bautista-Agut -5.5 ($1.83)|
|Isner v Edmund||Edmund +3.5 ($1.91)|
Day 4: 9-7
Day 4 ROI: 134.50%
Feature Previews: 7-6
Overall ROI: 105.90%