We’re down to 8 in Shanghai and guess who’s left… Federer and Nadal. They were both in devastating form overnight and have dominant winning records against their respective quarter final opponents. After a 6-2 performance in the 3rd Round The Wolf cannot wait for today’s matches!
Marin Cilic v Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Ramos-Vinolas has posed some problems for Cilic in the past winning 2 of their 5 encounters including their most recent in Monte Carlo earlier this year. The fact that he is left handed is the main reason. It was the case last week when Cilic went down to another lefty in the form of Mannarino and also in the final of Queen’s when he lost to Lopez – all matches in which he was a firm favourite. The Spaniard is being given little chance in this one but with at least one tiebreaker in each of their last 4 encounters the Overs shapes as a great play!
Best Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.80)
Rafael Nadal v Grigor Dimitrov
Nadal is in rare form but The Wolf says those who have been following him will be fully aware of his matchups with Dimitrov. The pair met last week in the semi’s of Beijing and on that occasion we were on the Overs. Dimitrov forced a deciding set as he has done on every occasion in best of 3 set matches not on clay. Just 2 of Nadal’s 9 wins have come in straight sets and in the last 13 sets contested Dimitrov has in fact won 6! It is a fast surface which will really suit Dimitrov. This one will be closer than expected.
Best Bet: Over 22.5 games ($2.00)
Viktor Troicki v Juan Martin Del Potro
We have backed Troicki in all 3 of his matches this week and he has delivered as an outsider in all of them! He is a very dangerous player on a fast indoor surface and with the roof closed this week he has taken full advantage. Last year he beat Nadal here and also produced wins over Thiem and Anderson in Vienna – another fast indoor surface. Del Potro may be a perfect 6-0 in the H2H but they have not met since 2012. The Argentine was impressive in his win over Zverev and shocked everyone including The Wolf by hitting his backhand down the line with a lot more regularity. He has been backed off the map as a result but The Wolf said it would be a clear case of negligence if we went against Troicki.
Best Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.73)
Richard Gasquet v Roger Federer
Both men were kind to us yesterday with Federer putting on a clinic and Gasquet getting over the line against fellow Frenchman Gilles Simon. This is a whole new proposition for Gasquet who has won just 2 of 17 matches against Federer. What is even more concerning for him is that those two wins have come on clay – a much slower surface. Federer has won the last 7 clashes and all of them have been in straight sets. In their 9 meetings on a hard court Gasquet has managed just a single set. The Wolf says he would have been competitive had it not been for a 3 hour contest against Simon. Backing up will be far too tough a task.
Best Bet: Federer -4.5 ($1.67)
|Cilic v Ramos-Vinolas||Best: Over 21.5 games ($1.80)
Value: 1st Set Correct Score 7-6 ($3.60)
|Nadal v Dimitrov||Best: Over 22.5 games ($2.00)
Value: Sets Total – 3 sets ($2.60)
|Troicki v Del Potro||Best: Over 21.5 games ($1.73)
Value: Troicki +3.5 ($2.05)
|Gasquet v Federer||Best: Federer -4.5 ($1.67)
Value: 1st Set Score After 2 games Federer 2-0 ($3.00)