Australian Open Day 5: Preview and Tips

aus open betting

Aus Open 2018: Day 5

We are in for a real treat on Day 5 with Nick Kyrgios taking on former finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in what is sure to be a classic!

Day 5 – Men’s 3rd Round Feature Match Previews

Andreas Seppi v Ivo Karlovic
Chase the Ace punters were rolling in thanks to 48 aces from Ivo Karlovic and they would be crazy not to be on him again in what could be another long 5 setter. He holds a 2-1 edge in the H2H against Seppi with two of those encounters going the distance. In their last two matches, both won by Karlovic, Seppi has generated a total of only 4 break point opportunities – converting only once. The big serving Croat is winning over 85% of points behind his 1st serve and his opponents rarely get a look in. The points in his matches rarely last more than 3 shots so fatigue is rarely a issue in his matches. The Overs looks like it’s set high but it isn’t! There will be multiple tiebreaks in the match and we only need to go 4 sets for the Overs to salute.
Best Bet: Over 44.5 games ($1.91)
Value Bet: Number of Sets – 5 Sets ($3.10)

Ryan Harrison v Marin Cilic
Cilic has quietly making his way through the draw and we won’t hear his name until he meets Rafa in the quarters. Afetr a slow start in his opening match we saw the best of him against Sousa. His serve was dialed in! He won over 90% of points on serve and didn’t face a single break point. It was reminiscent of his serving performance against Federer in the semi’s of the 2014 US Open – a tournament he would go on to win. He is 5-1 lifetime against Harrison and crushed the American in their two meetings last year winning both matches in straight sets and dropping a total of only 7 games. Cilic will not be dropping a set.
Best Bet: Cilic -6.5 ($2.00)
Value Bet: Sets Cilic 3-0 ($2.10)

Rafael Nadal v Damir Dzumhur
Dmunhur is getting no respect whatsoever in this one and The Wolf is surprised. He couldn’t understand how the Bosnian was outsider against Millman in his previous match and with Rafa employing some unusual tactics this one should go longer than expected. We’re used to seeing Rafa stand deep behind the baseline to return but camping behind the Melbourne sign to return will take the pressure off the weakest part in Dzumhur’s game. The underdog will be allowed to get into rallies and that is exactly what he wants to do. He is solid off both wings and look to more forward where possible which will prevent Rafa from completely dominating. Dzumhur won titles in St Petersburg and Vienna last year for a reason –  he can play ball! The Wolf is shocked to see the total set this low and gives Dzumhur every chance of winning a set.
Best Bet: Over 28.5 games ($1.83)
Value Bet: To Win A Set – Dzumhur ($3.40)

Nick Kyrgios v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
What a 3rd round matchup!!! Cancel your Friday night plans because this one could go into the early hours of the morning. This will be their first meeting and we could not have picked a better stage for the show. Kyrgios has breezed into the 3rd round without dropping a set and his serve continues to be virtually unbreakable. Tsonga on the other hand is coming off the match of the tournament. He was down and out against Shapovalov but managed to recover from a 5-2 deficit in the deciding set – reeling off 5 straight games to close out a emphatic win. It was his big game experience which got him over the line and The Wolf believes that it will be a key factor in this match as well. He will not get intimidated by the crowd, or the Kyrgios serve. He has a much stronger return game than the Aussie and will look to attack his opponents backhand with heavy inside-out forehands. The Frenchman also has a significant edge in net play and says the first set is more important for Kyrgios than himself. If Kyrgios falls behind we could see his mental frailties come to to fore. We will witness 4 or 5 long sets of enthralling tennis and The wolf cannot wait. The Overs is the best bet of the tournament to date with Tsonga to win the value.
Best Bet: Over 40.5 games ($1.83)
Value Bet: Tsonga WIN ($3.40)

Grigor Dimitrov v Andrey Rublev
Dimitrov fans will be very nervous following his performance against McDonald but The Wolf is sitting in the background saying ‘I told you so’. He said to stay away from Grigor in the futures markets and is shocked to see Dimitrov this short in the market against a player that has huge upside. Rublev was spectacular against Baghdatis and literally blew him off the court. The Russian generated 9 breaks of serve and hit winners from all angles of the court. His forehand is like something we have not seen before and his opponents do not know how to deal with his aggressive game style. He wins close to 40% of return games and will attack what was a glaring weakness in the Dimitrov game the other night – his backhand. McDonald was consistently rewarded when he attacked the wing and Rublev will be able to do it with one major difference – RAW POWER! Let’s also not forget that Rublev beat Dimitrov in straight sets at the US Open last year.
Best Bet: Rublev +4.5 ($1.83)
Value Bet: Rublev WIN ($3.20)

Day 5 – All Men’s Tips

Day 5 – Women’s 3rd Round Feature Match Previews

Kaia Kanepi v Carla Suarez Navarro
There is no shortage of history between these two ladies. They have met on 8 occasions winning 4 matches each. Close matches have been a rarity with 6 of the matches ending in straight sets. It is quite amazing that in the last 5 matches one of the two players has won no more than 5 games. Both women are streaky players which explains the scorelines and in terms of form it is Kanepi who is hitting the cleaner ball at the moment. She has wins over Watson, Kasatkina, Cibulkova and Puig already this season. As long as she can deal with Navarro’s high looping ball flight she will win this match.
Best Bet: Under 20.5 games ($1.91)

Jelena Ostapenko v Anett Kontaveit
The Ostapenko roller coaster continued in her last match as she and Ying-ying Duan traded 13 breaks of serve! The French Open champion will have to tighten her game up if she is to remain in the tournament but as mentioned on several prior occasions The Wolf simply cannot ignore her ability to hit winners. She has 63 winners through two matches which is quite incredible. Similarly, Kontaveit is not shy to go for her shots and it makes for a unpredictable affair. they will go the distance and it will be Ostapenko in three sets.
Best Bet: Sets Ostapenko 2-1 ($4.00)

Elise Mertens v Alize Cornet 
Gavrilova was labelled as a false favourite by The Wolf and Mertens showed why in a straight sets win over the Aussie. She remains undefeated for the year following her win in Hobart and there really is no weakness in her game. Her serve is very solid serve and she has remarkable depth with her groundstrokes. The absence of unforced errors in her game frustrates her opponents and The Wolf cannot see Cornet replicating the performance she had against Goerges.
Best Bet: Mertens WIN ($1.57)

Day 5 – All Women’s Tips

Match Tips
Bondarneko v Rybarikova Rybarikova WIN ($1.62)
 Allertova v Linette Allertova -1.5 ($1.83)
 Kanepi v Suarez Navarro Under 20.5 games ($1.91)
Kostyuk v Svitolina Svitolina -7.5 ($2.10)
Bertens v Wozniacki Bertens +5.5 ($1.80)
 Ostapenko v Kontaveit Sets Ostapenko 2-1 ($4.00)
Mertens v Cornet Mertens WIN ($1.57)

Don’t forget to check out all of our Australian Open promotions.