Australian Open Day 10: Preview and Tips

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Aus Open 2018: Day 10

Hyeon Chung played the match of his life to beat Novak Djokovic but how will he fare as a heavy favourite…

Day 10 – Men’s Quarter Finals Preview

Tennys Sandgren v Hyeon Chung
The Wolf tipped us into Chung as a big underdog against Djokovic and he delivered a performance that will not be forgotten any time soon. To beat the 6 time Australian Open champion in straight sets is a testament to the level of tennis he is playing. It also shows that his win over Zverev was no one off. Now he heads into this match as a huge favourite against an opponent who is also in his maiden Grand Slam quarter final. Sandgrens game is very simple – he will look to serve big and utilise his forehand to attack. The American is set to encounter a major problem… the defence of Chung! The Korean has been a brick wall all tournament long and nothing will change when they take the court for this one. Chung won 44% of return points when they met a fortnight ago in Auckland in a match that went the distance. Chung is significantly over-valued after beating Djokovic. The Wolf thinks Chung will walk away as the winner but just a single breaker will see the Overs salute.
Best Bet: Over 34.5 games ($1.62)
Value Bet: 1st Set Correct Score 7-6 ($3.70)

Tomas Berdych v Roger Federer
At one stage this H2H stood at 11-6 in Federer’s favour but 8 straight wins to the Swiss maestro now means it reads 19-6. The reigning champion has completely dominated this matchup over the last 5 years – winning 19 of the last 21 sets contested including three straight set wins at Grand Slam level. Their 3rd round match a year ago officially stamped the return of Roger in what was a absolute masterclass. He slapped 40 winners and won 95% of 1st serve points! There is no surprise element with Roger this time around and The Wolf feels that will help Berdych. Despite not dropping a set Federer has looked below his best and he will have to elevate his level to get past Tomas. It is something he has consistently done in the past and Berdych will have to change his tactics. One of the heaviest hitters on tour, Berdych has gone down the line with his backhand more regularly in this tournament and The Wolf says he will have to do it even more often if he is to end his losing streak against Roger. This match should go much longer than 12 months ago. Federer has been a bit sloppy in his return games and we have seen the likes of Struff and Fucsovics force him into tiebreakers. Grand Slam titles don’t come easily and this will be no exception for Federer this time around.
Best Bet: Berdych +5.5 ($1.85)
Value Bet: Sets Federer 3-1 ($3.70)

All Men’s Tips

Day 10 – Women’s Quarter Finals Preview

Angelique Kerber v Madison Keys 
Kerber was on the ropes in her 4th round match against Su Wei-Hsieh. She had no answers early on for the awkward play of Hsieh but was able to solve the puzzle in the latter stages of the second set. The two time Australian Open champion decided to go against her normal defensive style of play and get on the front foot. It allowed her to take the game away from Hsieh and push her around the court. Against Keys though, we will see her revert to defence as it is the American who holds an advantage in terms of sheer weight of shot. Keys has steam rolled all of her opponents to date and is yet to drop a set but she has a bad record against Kerber. The German holds a 6-1 advantage in their prior encounters including straight sets victories in the last 3 clashes. She will attack the Keys 2nd serve as she has in the past and it is hard to look past her at this price.
Best Bet: Kerber WIN ($1.60)

Simona Halep v Karolina Pliskova
A four hour marathon was supposed to play it’s part in Halep’s match against Osaka but it sure wan’t the case. There was no fatigue to speak of and she was on and off the court in no time. There will be no lack of confidence for her match against Pliskova either with the world number 1 having won 5 of their 7 meetings. The Pliskova serve has been outstanding all tournament long but she has lacked aggression at times in her return games. It has allowed her opponents to get her on the run where she is least effective. Halep will hit down the lines with regularity in a match where the winner will be determined by a handful of key points. They have gone the distance in 3 of their last 4 meetings and this one will be no exception. Overs!
Best Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.80)

All Women’s Tips

Match Tips
Kerber v Keys Kerber WIN ($1.60)
Halep v Pliskova Over 21.5 games ($1.80)

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