Aus Open Day 8 Preview (Men’s)

Day 8: Men’s 4th Round Previews

Dominic Thiem v David Goffin (1:00pm)
David Goffin made light work of Karlovic but faces a very different opponent today. He is coming off back to back matches against serve-volley players in Stepanek and Karlovic. Today he will have to get his running shoes back on against one of the most pure hitters on the tour – Domicis Thiem. Goffin leads the H2H 5-2 but it is Thiem who has won 3 of the last 4. Goffin won a very tight match between the pair here last year but The Wolf says Thiem’s game has developed significantly over the last 12 months. Neither player possesses a big serve so we should see a stack of breaks in the match. That bodes well for the Unders especially when you consider that of the 23 combined sets played by them this week only one has been decided via a breaker. The Unders is the best bet with Thiem value for the win.
Best Bet: Under 40.5 games ($1.83)
Value Bet: Thiem WIN ($2.10)

Grigor Dimitrov v Denis Istomin (5:00pm)
Denis Istomin shocked the world against Novak but his performance against Carreno-Busta was just as impressive. After a grueling 5 hour marathon against Djokovic he was able to prevail in another 5 set thriller. Surely he is out of legs! Meanwhile Dimitrov was in a rush against Gasquet smashing 48 winners in a crushing straight sets win. Their only relevant meeting came back in 2014 with Dimitrov winning in straight sets. With Djokovic out, this is a great chance for Dimitrov to really take advantage of the draw. He can’t ask for more that to be facing Isotmin – especially with the Uzbecki having played almost 11 hours of tennis and 14 sets through just three matches.
Best Bet: Sets Dimitrov 3-0 ($1.67)
Value Bet: Dimitrov -8.5 ($3.75)

Roberto Bautista-Agut v Milos Raonic (6:00pm)
Raonic has made his way through the draw very quietly and goes into this one a huge favourite.  He has won all four encounters against Bautista-Agut but virtually half of the sets contested have been decided by breakers. The Spaniard’s game has been dialed in all week and he has continued on from his title winning run in Chennai. He will need to be at his best in this one – especially with Raonic serving lights out with 60 aces already this tournament. That being said The Wolf disagrees with the general public and says the ever reliable Bautista-Agut will trouble the Canadian. Raonic has lost 5 of the last 7 breakers he has contested and the Spaniard rarely gives away any free points. Unlike his match against Ferrer he will not need to be the aggressor which will suit him just fine. This one will go at least 4 sets.
Best Bet: Over 38.5 games ($1.80)
Value Bet: Bautista-Agut +3.5 ($2.75)

Gael Monfils v Rafael Nadal (9:00pm)
Nadal holds a dominant 12-2 record over Monfils but The Wolf has warned to consider more that just the numbers in this one. Nadal is coming off a very tough 5 set win over Zverev where he relied almost exclusively on his defence to get him over the line. He had just 12 forehand winners from the baseline through 5 sets and just one off the backhand wing. There is also the fact that Monfils is a very different player to the man that Nadal used to towel up in the past. The Frenchman has completely transformed his game style over the last 12-18 months and the results are there to be seen. Monfils used to camp himself up to 5 metres behind the baseline in the past, defending his heart out and running himself into the ground. He no longer does this. Monfils now stands up on the baseline and uses his heavy ground strokes to dominate opponents. This will be one tough match for Rafa and after seeing Zverev dominate him from the baseline The Wold likes Monfils for the upset.
Best Bet: Over 38.5 games ($1.91)
Value Bet: Sets Monfils 3-1 ($7.50)

Day 8 Tips

aus open 2017 betting odds