The Wolf’s Sporting Guide

The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – October 20

If there is one thing you do this weekend The Wolf says to tune in for the Sydney Derby as Sydney FC host the Wanderers. It is one of the most bitter rivalries in Australian sport and has set the standard in terms of atmosphere and entertainment. You do not want to miss this one!

Wolf’s Best

EPL: Both Teams To Score – YES @ $1.90 (Chelsea v Watford) – Sat 10:30pm
This shapes as a real danger game for Chelsea. In Kante’s absence they went down away to Palace in the league last week and let a 2-0 lead slip in the UCL midweek. Continuity was the key to Chelsea’s success last season and we have already seen the effect that injuries can have. Watford are no slouches either. They sit 4th on the ladder, 2 points ahead of the Blues and deserve more credit than they are getting. Their only loss came at the hands of a rampant Man City and last weeks come from behind win over Arsenal further highlights that they are a genuine top 8 side this season. Chelsea may be undefeated in their last 12 across all comps against Watford but The Hornets have more than made it interesting. They took the lead at Vicarage Road last season and scored 3 times in a loss at The Bridge. Watford are undefeated away from home in the EPL this season (3 wins and a draw) and have scored multiple goals in all four of those game. The Wolf has them finding the back of the net more than once and that will be good enough for at least a point.

Code Bets

A-League: HT/FT – Perth/Perth @ $2.35 (v Central Coast) – Sun 5:00pm
In case you missed it, go back and watch De Silva’s goals against the Wanderers last week. His movement off the ball followed by his run into space and the finish were absolutely sublime. There is no doubt that he is a star and one of the hot prospects in the A-League but we could see see him exist in the next transfer window. He has gone to the Mariners for game time and the chance to shine so expect more from him in the coming months. The suspension to Hoole will hurt them in midfield while the defence will have their work cut out for them trying to stop Keogh and Taggart who could be the highest scoring attacking duo in the competition this season. The Mariners have lost 7 of their last 10 away A-League matches and have claimed just a single point from their last 5 trips to the west. The Glory have found the net on 16 occasions in those matches and The Wolf has them running riot on the Mariners.

NFL: Atlanta +3.5 @ $1.83 (v New England) – Mon 11:30am
It would be impossible for the Falcons not to have scars after their capitulation in Super Bowl 51. The Falcons raced out to a 28-3 lead before the Patriots led by Tom Brady produced the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history to record an unlikely 34-28 victory. The Wolf is expecting another high-scoring affair in this one. The Patriots defence has allowed 300+ passing yards to every QB they’ve faced this year, while the Falcons will be determined to get their offence flowing after disappointing home losses to the Bills and Falcons. There’s no doubt they’ll have a chip on their shoulder and will want to expose the Patriots struggling secondary like every other team has this season. Overs is 5-2 in the last 7 meeting between these sides, while the Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Wolf is keen on theFalcons with the start and the overs in a shootout.

Rugby Union: Australia +12 @ $1.90 (v New Zealand) – Sat 8:00pm
The last home test of the year sees the men in gold handed one last chance this year to knock off their arch rivals from across the ditch. The Wolf firmly believes this is as good a time as any for the Wallabies to break their Trans-Tasman drought. The All Blacks are coming off another successful year and with the Bledisloe locked up safely in NZRU HQ for another 12 months you have to question the motivation of Saturday night’s game for the men in Black. The Wallabies have been building very nicely in 2017 and with their most settled side in some time, playing in front of a passionate QLD crowd  this will be as good a time as any to knock off their arch rivals. Both backlines look relatively even on paper and with Retallick out their forward is more vulnerable than usual. If Adam Coleman, Sean McMahon and Michael Hooper can get consistent go forward, holes will begin to appear out wide of which the Wallabies backs are good enough to exploit. The Wolf is putting his neck on the line for the last home test match of the year and predicting the Wallabies to upset the All Blacks at Suncorp Stadium.

Wolf’s Bolter 

EPL: Man City Over 4.5 goals @ $3.50 (v Burnley) – Sun 1:00am
We could be hearing cries of ‘pray for Burnley’ by half time in Man City turn up and are in the mood. They have scored 24 goals in their last 5 league games including a 7 goal clinic at home to Stoke a week ago. They looked just as good in the opening 20 minutes against Napoli before switching off. As if they needed any more help they will be boosted by the return of Aguero – the best striker in the Premier League according to Wolfy. Guardiola will not be taking Burnley lightly. They are undefeated in their last 6 league games and have taken points away to Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool already this season. They have done so on the back of their defence and the Under is 7-0 in their last 7 EPL fixtures as a result. All of these facts are reason why we will see City at their very best! The midfield of De Bruyne, Silva, Sane and Sterling have been in some mood which will provide the Aguero/Jesus combination with an unlimited amount of goal scoring opportunities.

Wolf’s Multi 

A-League: Over 3.5 goals (Melbourne Derby) | EPL: Under 2.5 goals (Liverpool v Man Utd) | College Football: Auburn -7 (v LSU)
Combined Odds: $9.25

Feature Previews

A-League: Sydney FC v Western Sydney – (Sat 7:50pm)
The Wanderers ended Sydney FC’s unbeaten run last season on the back of some controversy with the win ending a 9 game winless run against their cross town rivals. There has been a common theme in the Sydney Derby since Graham Arnold took the helm at the Sky Blues. Their encounters have become more of a tactical battle rather than a game played at break neck speed from end to end. The Under is 4-2 as a result with a total of just 11 goals in the last 6 meetings. Sydney FC have started this season exactly how they finished last – winning. Mierzejewski and Ninkovic have been brilliant and the supply to Bobo and Brosque is endless. As good as they have been it is O’Neill and Brilliante who will play a more important role in this one. The quartet of Bonevacia, Jumpei, Cejudo and Riera have looked very dangerous in attack and containing them will be priority number one. Neither side will want to give an inch early and after seeing the scores ties at the break in 3 of the last 4 meetings look for that trend to continue.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.05)
Value Bet: 1st Half Result – Draw ($2.15)

NFL: Denver @ LA Chargers – Mon 7:30am
The Broncos (3-2) suffered a shock 23-10 loss to the Giants in Monday Night Football and now travel to LA to take on the Chargers, hoping for a win over their AFC West rival to keep the pressure on the 5-1 Chiefs. The Broncos will be without wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders for the clash, while Demaryius Thomas was banged up against the Giants and is unlikely to be at 100% here. The Chargers are always a difficult side to trust, especially in close games. However, they were on the right side of the scoreboard last week, with a 17-16 win over the Raiders. The Broncos defence has been one of the strongest units in the league against the run, but Orleans Darkwa blew that theory out the window last week, rushing for 117 yards. The Wolf is expecting a better effort from the Broncos D, but Melvin Gordon is double the player and then some, when compared to Darkwa. It will be a very intriguing battle that will go a long way to deciding this contest. The other issue is the lack of home advantage that the Chargers get in LA, with Broncos fans sure to outnumber Chargers fans. The Broncos are clearly the better side, but the Wolf is conscious of backing them with concerns around their wide receivers. The unders is the way that The Wolf is leaning. Unders is 7-1 in the Broncos last 8 games following a loss, while the unders is 11-3-1 in the Chargers last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record.
Best: Under 41 ($1.91)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($5.25)