The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – November 10
Wolf followers were swimming in it last week when The Wolf’s $13.50 3-leg multi saluted. Find out what he has in store for us this weekend.
A-League: Double Chance @ $1.95 (v Melbourne Vic) – Sat 7:50pm
A ten man Victory deserve credit for salvaging point but The Wolf says they will be hindered this week by both a short turn around and the absence of key players. Milligan and Troisi will be on Socceroos duty while Mitch Austin will serve a suspension following his red card. Berisha returns which will push Leroy George out wide but central midfield is not an area where you can afford to be short in. The Roar have their own injuries to contend with and will be without Ingham, Brown and Kristensen among others but with the duo of McKay, Holman, Khalfallah and Maccarone lining up they should be able to take control. Goals have been hard to come by for both sides with both of them averaging just a single goal per game through 5 rounds. Steer clear of the Victory in this one and back the Unders along the way with the Roar every chance of claiming their first win of the season.
Rugby League: Tonga +8 @ $1.90 (v New Zealand) – Sat 3:00pm
The Wolf tipped Tonga to win Pool B at $3 and isn’t ruling out an upset here after their unbeaten start to the World Cup. They thumped Scotland 50-4 in their opening game and followed it up with an impressive 32-18 win over bitter rivals, Samoa. The Kiwis were also too good for Samoa, winning 38-8 and also hammered Scotland by 74-6 last week. The additions of Jason Taumalolo and Andrew Fifita to the Tongan side for this World Cup can’t be understated and The Wolf is all over Tonga with +9.5 start.
NFL: Under 46.5 points @ $1.91 (New Orleans @ Buffalo) – Mon 5:00am
The Bills will need a better performance from star running back LeSean McCoy if they’re to challenge the Saints, who are on a current six-game winning streak. McCoy could only manage 25 rushing yards from 12 carries in last week’s 34-21 loss to the Jets. New recruit from the Panthers, Kelvin Benjamin will make his Bills debut but will see plenty of coverage from potential defensive rookie of the year, Marshon Lattimore. The Saints offence has been firing on all cylinders of late, funneling through their running back tandem of Mark Ingram and impressive rookie Alvin Kamara. Prior to last week’s poor effort against the Jets, the Bills had only one 100-yard rushing performance against them this season. The Bills defence should be able to limit the damage of the Saints running backs and also keep Drew Brees relatively quietly, while the Saints defence has improved out of sight won’t allow the late flurry of points that the Bills scored against the Jets last week. The unders is the Wolf’s best play here. The Saints are 4-1 unders in their last 5 games, while unders has landed in three of the four games where the Bills were underdogs this year.
World Cup Qualifiers: Both Teams To Score – YES @ $2.05 (Aus v Honduras) – Sat 9:00am
The Wolf cannot see the Socceroos maintaining a clean sheet in either of the two matches and that means they will have to rely on goals to get through. As a result we will see a far more open encounter than anticipated. Both teams have found the back of the net in the last 5 World Cup qualifiers for Honduras at home and 4 of the last 5 for the Socceroos away. It is no secret that Ange wants at least one away goal and they will need it with his side having maintained just the one clean sheet in it’s last 14 competitive matches. The Wolf can see the Socceroos falling behind in the first half and that will real pressure on them to respond. Honduras to claim a 2-1 victory at home.
A-League: Teams To Score – Newcastle Only @ $5.50 (v Adelaide) – Sat 5:35pm
The Jets delivered as The Wolf’s best bet in Round 5 and they deservedly sit 3rd on the ladder just 2 points behind league leaders Sydney. Wolfy doesn’t like to repeat himself but finds it hard to do so when it comes to the Jets front three – namely O’Donovan, Petratos and Nabbout. They have combined for 10 goals and 5 assists with opposing sides finding out the hard when when it come to shutting them down. The Jets attack is firing on all cylinders but the same cannot be said about Adelaide. In the two games in which Absalonsen has not played they have failed to score and Matmour is the latest to join a growing injury list. With more than half of their regular starting XI absent The Wolf is shocked to see the price on offer for the undefeated Jets. This is a very different Jets side to the one we have seen in recent season but the fact that they have lost just 2 of the last 6 against Adelaide is another positive. The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings with no more than a single goal in 5 of the last 7 meetings. The Wolf is sticking with the Jets!
Rugby Union: Wales v Australia – Sun 4:15am
Australia have had the wood on their Welsh counterparts in recent times defeating them on each of the last 12 occasions, dating right back to 2008. Traditionally close affairs, 11 of those 12 clashes have been decided by 9 points or fewer, the only exception was the corresponding clash last year in which Bernard Foley and Adam Coleman put on absolute clinic to ensure a thumping 32-8 Wallabies victory. Make no mistake this is a very difficult first assignment for Michael Cheika’s men. Wales under Warren Gatland are a different beast to the side that was trounced 12 months ago, particularly with big names Leigh Halfpenny and Johnathan Davies returning. The Wolf is predicting a see-sawing encounter but with both Justin Tipuric and Sam Warburton ruled out through injury, Michael Hooper and Sean McMahon will be able to run riot and will ultimately prove the difference for the Wallabies in an entertaining affair on the banks of the River Taff.
Best bet: Australia WIN ($1.62)
Value bet: First scoring play – Australia TRY ($5.00)
New England @ Denver – (Mon 12:30pm)
There is two keep factors heading into this clash and both of them favour the Patriots. One of them is Broncos QB Brock Osweiler and the other is that the Patriots are coming off the bye and have had plenty of time to prepare for the out-of-sorts Broncos. The Broncos defence can limit the run, but look for Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots receiving backs to give the Broncos linebackers headaches all night. It will on Osweiler’s arm to move the chains, with the Patriots reasonably strong against the run. The Patriots don’t have the best record in Denver (2-6 ATS in their last 8 games), but it’s impossible to trust Brock! Despite the poor record in Denver, the Pats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Best: New England -7.5 ($1.95)
Value: Wire to Wire – New England ($2.45)