The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – May 18
The Wolf tipped Newcastle to beat Chelsea last week at $6! Find out who he has made his bolter in this week’s Sporting Guide.
NRL: Melbourne v Manly – (Sat 7:35pm)
Last week it was Souths that delivered as the outsider and a week on it will be Manly who get the job done for us. The Storm look very vulnerable this week with captain Cameron Smith ruled out due to suspension. The Eagles ended a five match losing streak in Brisbane last week and their attacking flair is set to trouble the Melbournians. Six of the last seven clashes have topped 41 points and there was much to like about the Eagles last week when they put 38 on the Broncos. Getting a start of 6 or more, the Sea Eagles are 13-8 ATS and the +6 looks very generous here. The Wolf sees the Storm lacking direction with no Smith and Cronk now in a different coloured jersey. We are yet to see Munster and Jacks take control and orchestrate the attack. DCE will be the difference maker.
Best: Manly +6 ($1.91)
AFL: Gold Coast v Port Adelaide – (Sat 1:45pm)
This one has got the markings of a second half blowout written all over it. Port have won the last 8 meetings between the two clubs and won the two meetings last year by a combined total of 187 points! The suns have been poor late in games – winning the final quarter just once this season with a shocking 50% percentage. Port on the other hand have been clinical when returning from the main break going 7-1 in the 3rd quarter in 2018 with a remarkable percentage of 197%. It will be a long trip home for the Suns from China after what will happen to them in this one.
Best: Port Adelaide 2nd Half -20.5 ($1.87)
Super Rugby: Sharks v Chiefs – (Sat 11:05pm)
Smarting from a shock loss at home to the Jaguares, the Chiefs began their South African tour with a grinding 15-9 win over the Stormers to improve to a 7-3 record. The 4-1-6 Sharks have struggled all season for consistency, bookending consecutive wins over the Stormers and Highlanders (a stunning 38-12 upset) with losses at home and away to the Bulls. The Sharks boast a 6-4 home record against the Chiefs, including a 12-11 win when the teams last met in Durban in 2016. But the Chiefs have won six of the last seven between the teams overall. The 2012 Super Rugby final combatants have a habit of producing tight games – six of the last seven have featured 1-12 margins. The Wolf can’t ignore a Kiwi heavyweight as a big outsider against overseas opposition; all the value lies with the Chiefs in this one.
Best: Chiefs +7 ($1.90)
NRL: Nth Queensland v South Sydney – (Sat 5:30pm)
The Cowboys sit 14th on the ladder despite having named the same 17 for most of the season. They are 3-7 ATS this season while the Bunnies a a NRL bets 8-2 ATS through 10 rounds. The Rabbitohs have now covered their last 5 away from ANZ Stadium and are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 when favoured by less than a converted try. The Cowboys strength is the middle and based on form they will be run over by a rampaging Souths pack. The twins are running and handling the ball better than ever while Sutton and Crichton have been fantastic on the edges. Johnston has made the fullback position his own while the left edge of Walker and Inglis have been scoring at will. A convincing win by the visitors will force Paul Green into some much needed changes.
Best: South Sydney -2 ($1.91)
Super Rugby: Sunwolves vs Stormers (Sat 3:15pm)
EPL side Newcastle saluted at $6 as last weeks bolter and the baton has been passed on to the lowly Sunwolves. They are understandably fizzing after just their fourth win in 40 Super Rugby matches and their first of 2018 – a 63-28 demolition of the Reds in Tokyo. The signs of a breakout performance were there after some spirited recent displays in New Zealand, but last week’s stunning result will have the 5-7 Stormers on high alert. The Stormers’ two-game winning streak came to a halt in Round 13 via a 15-9 home loss to the Chiefs. The Stormers have played the Sunwolves twice in Asia and were pushed both times, held to a draw in 2016 and overcoming a double-digit deficit in the second half to win last year. The Sunwolves are 4-0 against the line in their last four games, while the Stormers are a dismal 0-6 head-to-head in away games in 2018. The Sunwolves can spring another upset!
Value Bet: Sunwolves WIN ($3.75)
Combined Odds: $7.00
NRL: Manly +6 | AFL: Sydney -27.5 | Super Rugby: Chiefs +7
NBA: Celtics @ Cavs – Game 3 (Sun 10:30am)
The Cavs have been pounded from pillar to post in the opening two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, yet somehow with start heavy favourites in Game 3. The Wolf says it is a complete sign of disrespect to the Celtics. They are +37 through two games and have held the Cavs to an average of 88.5ppg in the series. They won Game 2 by 13 points despite a 40 point triple/double from LeBron! There is not much else that LeBron can do and the reality is that he does not have the support required to beat a well balanced Celtics roster. The Cavs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when on 3 or more days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a ATS win. The Cavs on the other hand are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when on a break of 3 or more days and are 13-27 ATS when favoured by 5 or more this season. LeBron could get 40 and they will still fail to cover!
Best: Boston +6.5 ($1.92)
Value: Boston WIN & Over 199.5 ($4.60)
Prop: LeBron James 35+ points ($1.90)
AFL: St Kilda v Collingwood (Sat 7:25pm)
The final Saturday game of Round 9 is another all-Victorian affair at Etihad with the Saints taking on the Magpies. St. Kilda have been very poor throughout 2018, punctuated by the worst goal-kicking efficiency of all-time; and the fact they have only once kicked more than 10 goals in a game in 9 rounds is, quite frankly, deplorable. The Under is 7-1 in Saints matches as a result and they are 1-5 straight up at Etihad in 2018. If Nathan Buckley’s boys can bring the tenacity they’ve shown for most of the season, they should be good enough to get the job done. Their midfield is light years ahead of the Saints and will prove to be the difference.
Best Bet: Collingwood 1-39 ($2.05)
Value Bet: Sidebottom 30+ Disposals/
Treloar 30+ Disposals/DeGoey 2+ Goals ($3.96)
Player Prop: Brodie Grundy 130+ Fantasy Points ($2.75)