The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – May 11
It’s another busy weekend in the sporting world! The Wolf has previews & recommended bets for NRL, AFL, EPL, NBA, Tennis and MLB.
NRL: South Sydney v St George Illawarra – (Sun 2pm)
The Wolf can smell an upset on the cards! Souths have won 9 of the last 12 against St George Illawarra with the three losses all coming by four points or fewer. The Dragons have had to lift for two big matches in the ANZAC Day clash against the Roosters and last’s week’s match at Kogarah against the Storm. Meanwhile, the Rabbitohs arguably could have won the match between these sides back in Round 5 and could catch the Dragons at a good time. The return of Sam Burgess, if he stays on the field, only boosts their chances of an upset. Glory, glory!
Best: South Sydney +5.5 @ $1.91
AFL: GWS v West Coast – (Sat 1:45pm)
The Wolf is expecting a big response from GWS in this game, and is expecting them to come out firing against an Eagles side that may start a little slow before working into the game. The battle between Phil Davis and Kennedy/Darling will be absorbing in itself, but he needs his midfield to compete harder to give him a better chance of co-ordinating the defence against a dangerous Eagles forward line. Callan Ward, in his 200th game, will lead by example and get his troops over the line in what is a critical game for the psyche of the Giants.
Best: GWS 1st Quarter -2.5 @ $1.87
NRL: Melbourne v Gold Coast – (Sat 5:30pm)
It all looks like one way traffic here! The Storm have won 9 of the last 12 against the Titans, and usually bounce back after a big loss. They have covered 9 of their last 13 after conceding 24 or more points. This could be over by halftime if the Titans are slow out of the blocks. Storm should have no problem covering the 14.5 line.
Best: Melbourne -14.5 @ $1.91
EPL: Liverpool v Brighton – (Mon 12am)
The next fortnight will determine if Liverpool’s season has been a success or failure. On one side of the spectrum, they could win the Champions League with Klopp and co to go down in Reds folklore. On the other hand… they could go down in a shocking loss at home to Brighton, allowing Chelsea to leap-frog them, and lose to Real Madrid in the UCL final. It would mean no trophy, and no Champions League next season – DISASTER. The Wolf says that step one of the process will be completed this weekend. They need only a point to secure a top 4 finish and it will come easily. Brighton are already celebrating. They have confirmed their place in the top flight next season, as have fellow promoted sides Huddersfield and Newcastle. This one will be all about the Liverpool fairy tale. Salah will break the goal scoring record and the Reds will celebrate in style!
Best: Liverpool WIN Both Halves @ $1.91
EPL: Newcastle v Chelsea – (Mon 12am)
With a top 4 finish on the line, Chelsea laid an egg at home to Huddersfield. A 1-1 draw was a disgraceful result with Conte electing to start Hazard on the bench. It now means that Chelsea would need Liverpool to lose at home if they are to stand any chance of Champions League qualification. The Wolf says that will not be happening, and the harsh reality is that they do not deserve it. Newcastle are undefeated in their last 4 EPL clashes at home to Chelsea (3 wins and a draw). The Magpies have scored multiple goals in each of those four matches and The Wolf is shocked to see the price on offer for them.
Value: Newcastle WIN @ $6
Combined Odds: $11.80
NRL: South Sydney +5.5 | AFL: GWS 1-39 | EPL: Liverpool Over 3.5 goals
NBA: Cavs @ Celtics – Game 1 (Sun 5:30am)
It is no secret that Brad Stevens is a basketball savant. The Celtics found a way to keep a lid on the Greek Freak after he went off in the opening two games of the series and turned Ben Simmons, the Rookie Of The Year in waiting, into a liability. LeBron averaged 24 points, 11 rebounds and under 8 assists in the 3 regular season meetings with the Celtics. The Celtics are a perfect 7-0 at home in the playoffs and a very impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 at the TD Garden. The Cavs on the other hand are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when on 3 or more days rest. No matter what, we know that LeBron will get his but can a deep Celtics roster contain the Cavs role players…. We will be going the distance and The Wolf cannot see anyone rolling into the TD Garden and winning Game 7 – not even ‘The King’.
Best: Boston WIN ($1.97)
Value: Boston & Under 199.5 points ($4.50)
Prop: LeBron James 35+ points ($1.90)
Series Score: Boston 4-3 ($6.00)
AFL: Collingwood v Geelong (Sun 3:20pm)
The Wolf is absolutely PUMPED for this match. Both sides come into this clash in good form, and this has all the hallmarks of an absolute nail-biter. The loss of Hawkins to another ill-disciplined suspension is a blow for the Cats, and leaves question marks over their forward structure again- but they certainly seem well equipped enough to cope with it. At the other end of the field is where the Wolf thinks the Pies can capitalise, however, with the gallant young Cats defence likely to be stretched on the big dimensions of the ‘G as they try to deal with a potent Pies forward line that is well supplied by the Rolls Royce Collingwood midfield. Pies in a tight one!
Best: Collingwood WIN ($2.35)
Player Prop: Brodie Grundy 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)