The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – July 14
The Wolf returns with his best bets across all sporting codes for this weekend. He says the points will dry up for the Sharkies this week and is rubbing his palms in excitement for both the men’s and women’s finals at Wimbledon…
AFL: Under 184.5 points @ $1.88 (Geelong v Hawthorn) – Sat 1:45pm
Traditionally one of the most-anticipated matches of the season, the high-flying Cats will be hoping to bury a resurgent Hawthorn in a massive Saturday afternoon clash. Could not be more keen on the under here with every angle pointing to a low-scoring affair. The Hawks have been a big under team all year (11-4) not to mention a 14-5 under record as an outsider since 2012. The Cats are defending like beasts at present and are a big under team at the MCG – 13-5 in their last 18 and 10-3 in day games since 2012. The under hits big-time when a team is coming off posting 150. Five trucks the under.
NRL: Under 40 points @ $1.90 (Gold Coast v Cronulla) – Sat 7:30pm
The Wolf is super keen on the Unders here and says the absence of Fifita will only help. 6 of the last 9 meetings have tallied fewer than 36 points and the Under is 9-1 in the Sharks last 10 when coming off a win of 18 or more. With the Sharks coming off the bye and having several stars backing up from Origin, The Wolf is expecting them to be very slow out of the blocks. The Titans upset the Sharks 16-12 back in round 8 despite the Sharks dominating through the middle of the ruck. The Titans have tightened the screws in recent weeks conceding a combined 24 points in their last two games. With the Sharks failing to reach 20 points in 5 of their last 7 The Wolf is happy to load up on the Unders.
Wimbledon Women’s Final: Venus Williams +1.5 @ $1.80 (v Muguruza)
What a year it has been for the old brigade in the world of tennis. At the Australian Open we had the William’s sisters meet in the women’s final with Federer and Nadal reigniting their rivalry in the men’s. Venus came up short against her sister but on Saturday night will attempt to claim a 6th Wimbledon title and her first major since her last win here in 2008. The Wolf tipped Venus pre-tournament and will be sticking with her in the final. She is 7-1 in Slam finals when you don’t count the matches played against her sister and has a tonne of experience. We have been riding Muguruza all tournament long but The Wolf says getting into the net against Venus will be a lot more difficult. This was evident in her semi against Konta. The Brit has 32 net approaches in her quarter final match against Halep but managed to get to the forecourt just 7 times against Venus. The Williams serve has been broken only once in her last three matches which makes Venus with the start an excellent bet!
AFL: Carlton +12.5 @ $1.91 (v Bulldogs) – Sun 3:20pm
The Western Bulldogs have won just two of their last eight and enter this off bad losses to West Coast and Adelaide. It is hard to go past Carlton here getting a double digit start. The Blues are always a quality bet at the MCG and having covered 6 of their last 7 at the ground and they have also covered 4 of their last 5 against the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have covered just four times this year (4-11) and have covered just two of their last 14 as a favourite in Melbourne. Carlton can be backed with confidence.
NRL: Total Match Score Bands 51-60 points @ $4.50 (v Wests Tigers) – Sun 2pm
This match may not pop off the page but The Wolf has found a special! The Sea Eagles have won 5 of their last 7 against the Tigers and 7 straight against them at Brookie. Manly were given no hope by officiating last week and will be out for blood. The Tigers have Woods and Tedesco backing up from Origin and with both men departing the club The Wolf says there will to win will be tested. The last five matches between the teams have topped 48 points and with the Tigers covering 7 of their last 8 road games as a double digit outsider we should see both teams pour on the points.
Super Rugby: Hurricanes v Crusaders – Sat 5:35pm
The match of the round sees the undefeated Crusaders travel to Wellington for a mouth watering clash against the reigning champions. Both coaches have named strong line ups for the match up. Hurricanes coach Chris Boyd has rushed all 6 players who appeared for the All Blacks in the third Lions test into the side. Both sides have been clinical in what has been an outstanding season for New Zealand franchises. The Crusaders are looking to complete an undefeated season on Saturday with a win in Wellington. It will be an important win too. A loss could see them give up their spot on top of the ladder, as the Lions sit just 2 points below them in 2nd. The Hurricanes have lost just 3 games this season but a 4th loss could see the Chiefs move ahead of them in 5th place and they will be determined to secure a home play off. The Hurricanes have won 6 of their last 7 games at home and will start the match as slight favourites. The stage is set for a cracking game on Saturday and the Wolf has a feeling it might not be the last time these sides meet in 2017. The Hurricanes have the home advantage and that might just get them over the line.
Best: Hurricanes WIN ($1.64)
Value: Hurricanes 1-5 ($5.00)
AFL: GWS v Sydney – Sat 7:45pm
The Battle of the Bridge should be a fascinating and all-important affair despite having the worst name of any derby in all of Australian sport. Greater Western Sydney have remarkably drawn their last two games, finishing level with Geelong and Hawthorn in consecutive weeks. More incredibly, six of the last 10 Giants games have been decided by three points or fewer. Sydney are incredibly into the Top 8 with an 8-7 record following eight wins in their last nine matches. They have won five straight with three of those wins by 35 or more. The Swans have conceded 51 points or fewer in three of their last five. GWS have felt like an incredibly lucky team this year. They have got away with so many close games and it feels like the wheel will turn soon. Sydney are excellent as an outsider and really hold their form after a big defensive effort. The Giants have struggled as a betting proposition at Spotless of late. Ride the Swans wave.
Best: Sydney +1.5 ($1.91)
Prop: Josh Kennedy 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.97)