The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – May 25
The Wolf’s bolter has now saluted for the last 3 weeks with winners at $5.00, $3.75 and $6.00!!!! Find out which team he is backing at odds this weekend!
NRL: Parramatta v Newcaastle – (Sat 7:35pm)
Some strong under angles at play here as well. The Eels are a major under team at ANZ and as a favourite of four or more while the under is well ahead when a road team conceded 40-plus in their previous game. Parramatta are 21-10 under at ANZ since 2015, including a 15-6 under record at night and road teams who concede 40 or more are 25-14 under record over the last four seasons. Attack is far from a strength for the Eels and with yet another change at fullback the points look hard to come by.
Best: Under 39.5 points ($1.90)
AFL: Essendon v Richmond – (Sat 7:25pm)
The Wolf is pumped for Dreamtime at the ‘G, and is expecting an exciting game. Essendon may have finally remembered how to win again but playing the Tigers at the MCG is a different kettle of fish and while they should be up and about for this encounter and remain competitive, the Wolf is expecting the Tigers to run away with it in the last quarter. Richmond have won the past 6 meetings and are averaging 101 points a game this season. That will be more than enough to get them home here.
Best Bet: Richmond 1-39 ($2.10)
Super Rugby: Brumbies v Sunwolves – (Sun 4:05pm)
After freefalling down the ladder with five straight losses, the Brumbies improved to a 4-8 record courtesy of an unlikely 38-28 comeback win over the Bulls – achieved despite the second-half send-off of hooker Folau Fainga’a. The 2-10 Sunwolves remain in last place, going down 40-13 to the Rebels in Melbourne last week after beating the Reds and Stormers back-to-back at home. The Tokyo-based outfit are chasing their maiden Super Rugby road victory in 21 attempts. The sides met at the start of the season, with the Brumbies squeaking in 32-25. The Sunwolves were caned 66-5 during their only Canberra assignment back in 2016. While last week’s result was encouraging, the fact the Brumbies are averaging just 22 points per game makes it impossible to back them against a huge line with any confidence. The Sunwolves are 6-3 against the start in their last nine games and that shapes as the only viable option in this one.
Sunwolves +29.5 ($1.90)
Soccer: Czech Rep v Australia – (Fri 9:00pm)
The Wolf is worried for the Socceroos – very worried. He has no doubt that the focus in the two friendlies will be to sure things up defensively and get a grasp of the game in the middle of the park. The Wolf has no idea where the goals will come from and will be surprised if the Socceroos get more than 5 attempts on target. Under 2.5 goals is 7-1 in the Socceroos last 8 away games and a draw in this one would be a positive. Wolfy doesn’t want to break the hearts of Socceroos fans but says those with even sense will be backing the Czech Republic.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.65)
Super Rugby: Chiefs v Crusaders (Sat 5:35pm)
We’re not getting the price over the last few weeks but The Wolf is chips in on the Crusaders. They are riding high after winning the battle of the heavyweights against the Hurricanes, a convincing 24-13 result despite missing suspended All Blacks props Joe Moody (who is available again this week) and Owen Franks. They are in the box seat to claim the all-important top finals seed, but a loss here would throw it wide open again. The Crusaders are on a three-game winning streak in the rivalry, including a fast-finishing 45-23 success in Christchurch earlier this season. The Chiefs are an unpredictable opponent with the likes of Damian McKenzie and Charlie Ngatai in the backline, but the Crusaders have made an art form of grinding good teams into submission and they should be a safe option against the start here and for a crushing win.
Value Bet: Crusaders 13+ ($2.95)
State Of Origin: NSW v QLD – (Wed 8:00pm)
The 2018 series is where the tide finally turns for New South Wales after a generation of punishment. History means precious little in this series with Brad Fittler handing debuts to 11 New South Wales players. The move was deliberate. He wanted none of the scars – or the selfishness – of series gone by. He has not put a foot wrong with selection, notably prizing speed and current form over reputation, body type and experience. He has chosen a team that can punish the Maroons and that is exactly how the opener shapes. The Blues pack is dominant and playing great football and seem destined to win the arm wrestle, as they have in previous series. The difference this time around is that a hooker and a backline have been named that can take full advantage. The Blues win the opener and win comfortably.
Best: New South Wales -4.5 ($1.90)
Value: New South Wales 13+ ($3.50)
Man of the Match: Damien Cook ($9.00)
French Open: Nadal v Gasquet (Sat 11:00pm)
The King of Clay really found his groove in the second round. He saved four break points in the opening game before storming past Pella and dropping just 4 games! Next up… Richard Gasquet. The locals will be cheering the Frenchman on but cheers will not be enough. Nadal holds a 15-1 advantage in their H2H series and has won the last 25 sets contested between the pair. 14 of the 34 sets won by Nadal have been by a double break margin or more (6-2 or better). The Wolf is expecting Rafa to roll past Gasquet.
Best: Under 27.5 games
Value: 1st Set Score After 6 Games Nadal 5-1 ($3.80)