The Wolf’s Sporting Guide

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The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – September 15

Get The Wolf’s best bets across all codes this weekend including the NRL, American Football, Soccer Internationals and other sporting action this weekend..

Wolf’s Best

NRL: North Queensland v Brisbane: Under 37.5 ($1.90) – Fri 7.50pm
The most compelling matches over the last two seasons have featured North Queensland and Brisbane including last year’s epic decider that is arguably the greatest Grand Final ever played. The Cowboys and the Broncos meet again with it all on the line again in what shapes as another classic. The under has plenty of angles here, primarily finals teams off double digit wins but also finals teams off big attacking performances.  Finals teams off a double digit win have a 50-27 under record. Road teams in finals who scored 40 last start have a 5-1 under record while outsiders who scored 40 are 5-2 ATS with a 6-1 under record. Finals teams who conceded 25-plus the week prior are 7-13 ATS with a 13-7 under number.

Code Bets

AFL: Sydney v Adelaide: Adelaide +11.5 ($1.90) – Sat 7.25pm
This final feels like it has come a week too early given that these two sides were in the top four for long periods on the season, and both spend significant time sitting in the top two. Sydney have lost four finals in a row now with their last win coming in the 2014 preliminary final, which may be starting to have a mental impact on an outfit known for their resilience. Adelaide come in with a win confidence after recording a win over the Swans this season.Adelaide has won 17 matches this season, and in 14 of those Eddie Betts has kicked three goals or more, including their last eight wins. Against Sydney earlier this year he kicked four goals, when the Crows were victorious. If you like Adelaide to win, you can add some value by taking the Scorecast involving him.

NFL: Atlanta v Oakland: Over 49.5 ($1.90) – Mon 6.05am
The over is 97-82-8 Weeks 1-4 with a home favourite between a field goal and a touchdown and is an incredible 13-4-1 over when the home fave scored 28 or more the week prior. The under has saluted in just 4 of the last 16 Raiders home games.

CFL: Ottawa v Calgary:Calgary -9.5 ($1.90) – Sun 7am
It is impossible to bet against the Stampeders at the moment having covered 9 of their last 10. Ottawa, by contrast, have covered just 1 of their last 6. Calgary have covered 4 of 5 all-time against the Redblacks.

Wolf’s Bolter 

NFL: Kansas City v Houston: Kansas City ($2.20) – Mon 3am
The small road underdog angle is again at play here with road dogs of 2.5 or smaller 40-26-1 ATS in Weeks 1-4 since 2006 with Week 2 bringing a 15-9-2 ATS number. Since ’13 the Chiefs are 18-8-1 ATS on the road. The Texans are 11-15-1 ATS at home over the same time. These two met in the playoffs last year with the Chiefs winning 30-0.

Wolf’s Multi 

Combined Odds: $13.03
Brisbane +6.5| Western Bulldogs +11.5| Canberra| Adelaide +11.5

Feature Match Previews

NRL: Canberra v Penrith – Sat 7.30pm
Canberra appeared to be cruising towards a preliminary final berth before Josh Hodgson went down hurt. Cronulla turned the match into a grind and it choked the Raiders out of the match. Penrith won’t be able to do that – it just isn’t their style – and a more open game plays into the Raiders’ hands. The likely loss of Josh Hodgson is a blow but the betting here has gone too far towards Penrith. Small home favourites in finals cover at over 70% and home teams are typically the team to side with in the second week of the finals.
Best Bet:  Canberra -1.5 ($1.90)
Other:  Under 38.5 ($1.90)

AFL: Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs – Fri 7.50pm
The Bulldogs attacked last weeks elimination final in a frenzy of pressure and desperation, but importantly backed it up with sure ball handling and high skill under pressure. They appear to have regrouped in the break and set themselves for a long campaign, not just one or two weeks. It’s never that easy, of course, and here they run into a three time defending champions Hawthorn. Hawthorn has played much more football than the Dogs at the MCG, particularly in finals, so this will be an advantage. The Hawks also have more obvious pathways to goal, so the Dogs are once again going to have to be at their defensive best, as they were against West Coast’s multi-faceted forward-line last week. The game should be a terrific one, to continue the run of great finals started last week, but it might just be time for the mighty to fall.

Best Bet:Western Bulldogs Line +11.5 ($1.93)
Value: Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.00)

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