Wimbledon ATP Betting Preview

Welcome to Wimbledon, the most prestigious tennis tournament in the world. But you can forget the strawberries and cream, the next two weeks are all about backing a winner.

The lead up tournaments are over, the draws are done and the players are ready.

This is looming as one of the hardest tournaments to predict for the year. However, it does look likely the winner will come from Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Andy Murray, aka the big four.

It’s not just the outright winner market where you can invest some money over the next two weeks. William Hill are offering a number of other markets including each individual quarter winner, predict the finalist, winner double and of course head to head markets.

Outright Winner

This basically comes down to four players, the big four. These guys have dominated the tour for a long time now and it’s hard to see it changing here. Each player has some pros and cons as to why they will win Wimbledon and why they wont.

Rafael Nadal $3.25

Why He Will:

  • He is a two time champion who fights like no one else on the tour
  • The speed of the Wimbledon courts has slowed down enormously in recent times, playing into the Spaniard’s hands.
  • He has a soft draw and can play himself into form

Why He Won’t:

  • Despite some impressive tournament wins, he has never looked at 100% all year, hampered by injury and illness.
  • He continues to over schedule. Why he played Queens the day after the French Open is a mystery.  The smart move would have been to rest up.
  • This week brings with it the added pressure of defending the number one ranking. Even if he wins the tournament he may still lose his spot at the top of men’s tennis.

Novak Djokovic $4.50

Why He Will:

  • After six months he is 41-1 and most of those 41 wins have been utterly dominant. He could easily be 48-1 in two weeks.
  • A good performance will see him reach his dream of being world number one, giving him an added incentive.
  • After a busy clay season he took the option to rest after the French Open. This should leave him fresh and ready to go from round one, a very smart decision.

Why He Won’t:

  • There may be a mental let down after finally losing a match. It was also a match he would have expected to win after already beating Federer three times for the year.
  • In six attempts he has never been past the semi final stage of Wimbledon.
  • From 27 matches, he has only ever defeated one top 10 player at Wimbledon, Tommy Robredo, a clay court specialist.

Roger Federer $3.20

Why He Will:

  • He was back to his best at the French Open, only dropping one set on his way to the final.
  • Despite not winning a grand slam, in the past twelve months he has been a picture of consistency. He has only missed the quarterfinals of one tournament that he has played in.
  • After missing the final last year for the first time in seven years, he will be out for revenge.

Why He Wont.

  • The Swiss hasn’t won a grand slam since the Australian Open 2010. The question needs to be raised, does he still have what it takes to win at the top level?

Andy Murray $6.50

Why He Will:

  • The Scot always performs well at Wimbledon. He has made the semi final the last two years and has a 19-5 overall record.
  • For the past two months he has been playing on his worst surface and performing brilliantly. This should give him huge confidence coming into a more favourable surface.
  • In his Queens Club semi final he put on a clinic against Andy Roddick, it was perhaps a preview for the next two weeks.

Why He Won’t:

  • For most players, playing in front of your home crowd is a positive. Murray seems to enjoy the crowd support but struggles with the expectations of the English press.
  • The mental demons from three grand slam final losses might just come out in the latter stages of the tournament.

What Does It Mean?

There are three ways to go here. Firstly, back Federer and hope that his form carries over from the clay season and he makes this Wimbledon title number seven. Secondly, take Murray and enjoy the slightly longer odds and hope the Scot realizes his true potential. Thirdly, back Djokovic to win his first Wimbledon title.

I am ruling a line through Nadal.

My Prediction

Murray to beat Federer

Predict the Quarter Winners

If outright market isn’t your thing then have a look at Sportingbet’s Quarter Winner option. All you have to do is pick who will win a particular quarter (make it to the semi final). There is some good value here when looking for an upset and it’s important to back a player with the weapons to cause an upset.

The best outsiders here are:

First Quarter:

Milos Raonic at $26.

An up and comer on the men’s tour, this guy can serve bombs off both the first and section serves. He has a great attitude and never lets his emotions get the better of him.

Second Quarter:

Richard Gasquet at $10

The Frenchman has a new coach and a new attitude but the same amazing level of ability. A big result is just around the corner and it might be here.

Third Quarter:

Jo Wilfred Tsonga at $6.50

John Isner at $23

Both these guys have big games and are in form. Tsonga just made the final of Queens and is due for a good run at a tournament.

A lot of people might have forgotten that Isner took Nadal to five sets in the first round of the French Open, an effort that was highly underrated. He is playing on a surface which suits his game and he has every chance of performing well.

Fourth Quarter:

Robin Soderling at $4.50

The Swede has all the weapons to cause an upset, it’s just a matter of where his head is. If he believes he can do it then he has every chance.

Winners Double

Punters will know the worst thing about Wimbledon is in the second week when they have men’s matches on one day and women’s on the other. So to make sure you’ve got something to barrack for look at matching your tip for the men’s with something on the women’s.

The best value looks to be the Andy Murray/ Maria Sharapova double at $41. Sharapova has been in good form in the women’s game and looks to be getting back to her best after some time out of the game with injury.

First Round Multi Options

On days one and two of Wimbledon there will be 64 men’s matches. That means multiple bets are a great way to get some good dividends with some small stakes. Here are the best anchor legs to put into your multiples and build the price.

Kevin Anderson to beat Illya Marchenko at $1.20

Milos Raonic to beat Fabio Fognini at $1.15

John Isner to beat Nicholas Mahut at $1.42

Mardy Fish to beat Marcel Granollers at $1.13

Richard Gasquet to beat Santiago Giraldo at $1.15

Best First Round Upsets

If backing underdogs is more your style, then look to these guys to give you a good run for your money at a nice price.

 

Tommy Haas to beat Gilles Muller at $2.05

Ivan Ljubicic to beat Marin Cilic at $2.05

Alejandro Falla to beat Jurgan Melzer at $3.80

Ivo Karlovic to beat Janko Tipsarevic at $1.88

Rainer Shuettler to beat Thomas Bellucci at $2.05

Lleyton Hewitt to beat Kei Nishikori at $2.15

 

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