The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – September 30
The Wolf’s Sporting Guide is coming of an all-time record performance. His Sporting Guide tips went a perfect 9-0 which included wins for all of his best bets, feature previews, bolter at $4.25 and Multi at $6.25!
Melbourne WIN @ $1.86 (Storm v Cronulla) – Sun 7:15pm
Melbourne return to a stage that is most familiar, playing in their sixth decider in 11 years while the Sharks look to claim the premiership that has eluded them for 50 years. Melbourne and Cronulla have met 31 times and the Storm have won 21 of the 31 matches played. Included in that dominance is 11 wins in the last 13 matches including the minor-premiership playoff in Round 26 won 26-6 by the Storm. The Storm have gone under in 8 of their last 10. The Sharks have covered just 3 of their last 8. Just 1 of the last 5 Grand Finals have topped 36 points while just 2 of the last 10 have topped 40. Favourites have won and covered 7 of the last 8 Grand Finals with 7 of the last 8 Grand Finals going under. Melbourne are an outstanding bet in this one and along with the under can be bet with total confidence. The Storm should be significantly shorter – around the $1.40 mark – and the fact the book is offering $1.84 is a gift with Wolfy rating this as perhaps the best Grand Final bet in history. Chips in Storm!
Sydney -11.5 @ $1.90 (Western Bulldogs) – Sat 2:30pmThe classic David vs Goliath battle. Have the Dogs got one more upset in them after taking out three more fancied opponents to get here? The Western Bulldogs have been great for the Wolf Pack this finals series, with our suggested bet in their games saluting every time, but the fairy tale might be over now. They are yet to play a team of Sydney’s calibre, with strength in every area of the ground. Sydney has a 7-3 lead in the two teams last 10 meetings and are the more experienced side in finals by a long, long way. Sydney will have a dozen players who have played on the biggest stage before, with several of them having done so multiple times, while the Dogs will only have Matthew Suckling if he comes up. The Swans have been fast starters in recent weeks and if they get off to a flyer this one could get ugly for the Bulldogs. Swans to post a comfortable win.
Both Teams To Score – YES @ $1.90 (Hull v Chelsea) – Sat Midnight
The Wolf was chips in on Arsenal last week and they delivered against what can only be described as a Chelsea side that continues to search for answers – especially at the back! Gary Cahill made a comic error to send Arsenal on their way and the manner in which they carved through the Chelsea defence throughout the match was simply unacceptable. Manager Antonio Conte was not shy to express his displeasure. He said that his side had the wrong attitude from the opening minute and described his team as only great on paper and not on the field. They have now conceded in 5 of their 6 EPL games this season and their 9 goals against is the most of any team in the top half. They shifted to a 3-5-2 in the second half and we could see more of that moving forward. Meanwhile Hull have scored in 4 consecutive matches across all competitions and at home The Wolf cannot see a fragile Chelsea holding anyone out.
NFL: Pittsburgh -4.5 @ $1.91 (v Kansas City) – Mon 11:30am
The Steelers are highly reliable as a home favourite, covering at a rate of 57.9% when a home elect of 3 or more points. They have covered 7 of their last 9 as a home favourite of 3.5 or more. They have covered both games at home since 2010 after being held to single digits the week prior. The Chiefs have covered just 1 of their last 6 getting 3 or more on the road. This may sound crazy to some but the hiding they copped last week at the Eagles is the main reason they are this weeks best. In normal circumstances this line would have been a touchdown. get around the Steelers!
EPL: Watford -1.5 @ $4.25 (v Bournemouth) – Sat Midnight
Watford were poor away to Burnley last week but The Wolf says they will bounce back in a big way against a Bournemouth side that simply cannot get it together away from home. They have collected just a single point from their last 5 away matches in the league and have scored just once in their last 3 on the road. Walter Mazzari called out his Watford squad for their lack of intensity and The Wolf is expecting to see a similar performance to those that saw them beat West and and Man Utd by multiple goals. The Hornets have not won often but when they have turned up they have put sides to the sword. The match against Burnely was the first time in 8 games that they have failed to score. they have a superior line up on paper with Deeney, Ighalo, Pereyra and Capoue. If they win it will be by multiple goals.
Feature Match Previews
Rugby Championship: South Africa v Australia – Sun 1:05am
South Africa are looking to break a three-Test losing streak, while Australia are chasing their third straight win in this intriguing clash between the rebuilding heavyweights. In 82 Tests, South Africa holds a 45-36-1 lead over Australia. But on home soil, the Springboks have won an imposing 33 of 43 matches. The Springboks followed up their scratchy first-up home win over Argentina with narrow away losses to the Pumas and Wallabies, before going down 41-13 to the rampant New Zealand team. After a pair of thrashings at the hands of the All Blacks, the Wallabies have recovered with a come-from-behind win over the Springboks in Brisbane and 36-20 defeat of the Pumas in Perth. The Springboks have won their last three (all by 18 points or more) – and six of their last eight – at home against the Wallabies. Australia are winless in six previous visits to Loftus Versfeld. The Boks in a tight one.
Best: South Africa 1-12 ($2.65)
Value: South Africa 6-10 ($5.00)
Tottenham v Man City – (Sun 12:15am)
The top of the table clash and match of the round shapes as a genuine clash of styles. Man City are a perfect 6 from 6 in the league on the back of goals, goals and more goals. Their 18 goals is the best in the league but scoring will be a much bigger challenge against a Spurs side that have allowed just 3 goals. Tottenham have built their recent success around defence and the foursome of Walker, Alderwiereld, Vertonghen and Rose are hand down the most settled back four in the comp. Rose is likely to return this week and they will need him if they are to slow down Aguero, Silva, Sterling and Gundogan. The injury to De Bruyne opens the door for Spurs and as we saw in City’s midweek clash against Celtic, any team can get rattled when you take it to them. Pochettino will have taken note of this and The Wolf expect the Tottenham midfield to come out and press with a purpose in an attempt to put City under pressure. They looked far from convincing at the back against Celtic giving up three goals but what will concern Pep was some of the rash clearances they made. It is no secret that Pep likes his sides to play the ball out from the back and will a genuine lack of height on the pitch, long clearances make no sense. City have conceded in 8 of their last 9 EPL matches and there have been no shortage of goals in their previous battles. Both teams have scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings, 8 of the last 9 have had produced at least 3 goals and there have been 44 goals in the last 10 meetings at an incredible average of 4.4 per game. This has the makings of an epic!
Best: Over 2.5 goals ($1.66)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.00)