The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – September 29
It’s Grand Final weekend and The Wolf cannot wait! Here are his best across all codes.
AFL: Richmond +6.5 @ $1.91 (v Adelaide) – Sat 2:30pm
It is impossible to go past the Tigers here. Their momentum seems irresistible. They have been a brilliant defensive side all year but have made their attacking bones over the back end of the season. They get a huge advantage playing at the MCG, their home ground, with every neutral cheering on the Tigers. Richmond have covered 12 of their last 14 at the MCG and 11 of their last 15 at the venue as an underdog. The Under has hit in the Tigers last 11 at the ‘G’ when starting as an outsider and a low scoring encounter with further play into their hands. Adelaide have looked a little shaky on the road lately and the Tigers continue to cover at the MCG. It’s the year of the Tiger.
NRL: Melbourne 1-12 @ $2.80 (v Nth Queensland) – Sun 7:30pm
The Wolf is sticking with the fine-tuned machine that is the Melbourne Storm. They’ve been the benchmark all season and won’t let the opportunity slip to make amends for last year’s grand final loss. In terms of betting angles, the Cowboys have been very gutsy throughout the final series and shouldn’t let this one get out of hand. The Cowboys have covered in 10 of their last 13 finals, making the Storm 1-12, The Wolf’s best bet. The unders is also a strong play, with the unders hitting in eight of the last nine Grand Finals. Players like Cameron Smith ($3) and Cooper Cronk ($5.50) are the obvious choices to win the Clive Churchill Medal, but The Wolf is keen on a few players at value. Cameron Munster ($9), Felise Kaufusi ($26) and Dale Finucane ($41) are all in with a strong shot at man of the match honours and at a good price.
EPL: Over 2.5 goals @ $1.65 (Chelsea v Man City) – Sun 3:30am
The match of the round takes us to Stamford Bridge for a fixture that could have a significant bearing on the title chase. We have seen everything from goals to red cards in recent clashes between these two and this one will be no exception. Both sides have started the season on fire! City have won 7 straight across all competitions with Chelsea posting 6 wins and a draw in the same stretch. There really has been no stopping the men from Manchester. They have scored 16 goals in their last 3 EPL matches alone with Aguero claiming 5 of them. There have been at least 3 goals in each of the last 5 clashes between the two sides and with both of them in red hot form Over 2.5 goals looks the bet of the weekend.
NFL: Denver -3 @ $2.00 (v Oakland) – Mon 7:25am
The Raiders were completely inept in their 27-10 loss to the Redskins in Monday Night Football and face a tough road trip to Denver this week. The Raiders could only manage 128 total yards against the Redskins and won’t get many tougher match-up than the Broncos defence. The Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games in Denver and 2-8-1 in their last 11 against the Broncos.
EPL: Burnley Over 1.5 goals ($4.20) – Mon 12:15am
The pressure is building a Goodison Park. The Toffees sit 14th on the ladder, are coming off a draw at home to lowly Apollon in the Europa League and cannot generate anything in the final third of the field. They needed a late double from Niasse to beat Bournemouth with Koeman reaching into the deepest corners of his squad. Niassie, who has now scored 3 goals in his last two matches for the club is ineligible for the Europa league as he wasn’t listed as part of the 25 man squad. It means he will play a more prominent role in the league and if his recent form is anything to go by we could see Rooney part way at some point. He’s been in the trenches… needed stiches after being elbowed to the eye against Bournemouth before his hand was trot on in the Europa League. Now it’s Burnely’s turn and The Wolf has them giving it a real crack. We saw them take points off Liverpool at Anfield a fortnight ago and have found found the back of the net in 13 of their last 15 away league fixtures. With Everton maintaining just the 1 clean sheet in the Premier League so far this season we will continue to back Burnley to score on the road.
Rugby Championship: South Africa v Australia – Sun 1:00am
Much has been made of the Springboks abysmal performance in Auckland 2 weekends ago, but the fact of the matter is they will be desperate to prove the doubters wrong particularly at home on the Highveld in Bloemfontein. The Wolf thinks this is the best Wallabies side Cheika has named this year with Jack Dempsey and Izsak Rodda bringing some much need aggression and go forward to the forward pack and Marika Korobeite adding some raw pace out wide. The Wolf sees a close game playing out in the Free state but is predicting the Wallabies to upset the hosts on a fast deck in Bloemfontein.
Best Bet: Wallabies +7.5 ($1.90)
Value Bet: Wallabies 1-12 ($4.00)
NFL: Carolina @ New England – Mon 4am
The Panthers have made a 2-1 start to their season, but it’s hardly been convincing. Quarterback Cam Newton has struggled through the first three weeks and was awful in the 34-13 loss to the Saints in Week 3, throwing three interceptions and was sacked four times. He simply can’t be trusted in this match-up against the great Tom Brady. Brady and Brandin Cooks combined for a clutch TD moment to give the Patriots a come-from-behind 36-33 victory, capping off a strong performance including 5 TD passes. The Panthers defence was shredded for 34 points by Drew Brees last week and can expect a similar fate by future hall of fame quarterback Brady. The Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win and will fancy their chances against a Panthers side that has scored a combined 22 points in their past two games this season.
Best: New England -9 ($1.91)