The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – September 24
Get The Wolf’s best bets across all codes this weekend including the NRL, American Football, EPL and other sporting action this weekend..
|NRL||Under 37.5 points @ $1.90 (Storm v Raiders)|
|AFL||Bulldogs +20.5 @ $1.93 (v Giants)|
|NFL||Oakland +2 @ $1.90 (v Tennessee)|
|College Football||Stanford -3 @ $1.90 (v UCLA)|
|Tennis||St Petersburg Open Tips|
NRL: Under 37.5 points @ $1.90 (Storm v Raiders) – Sat 7:45pm
Melbourne Storm are back where they belong, playing in their 8th preliminary in 11 seasons, and they will meet the only team not to play in one during the NRL era, the Canberra Raiders. This is David and Goliath with a Grand Final berth on the line. Melbourne are 15-10 ATS with a 17-8 under record and despite the Raiders being perceived as an Overs team it is their defence which has seen them win 11 of their last 12. Canberra may have won the last meeting in the nations capital but you can be sure that the Storm will be prepared for everything they will throw at them. They held the Sharks to 6 points in the final round of the regular season and the Cowboys to just 10. The Storm hit under at a ridiculously high rate at home on the back of a strong defensive performance and they know it is defence that wins premierships. Finals unders are always a play.
AFL: Bulldogs +20.5 @ $1.93 (v Giants) – Sat 5:15pm
GWS have won their last three matches, and seven of their last eight, so their form is extremely solid at the right time of year, and their only loss in that time was by one point to a hot West Coast on the last kick of the day. The Bulldogs though just keep on keeping on, winning twice as significant underdog in their finals matches so far, and doing it easily too. They demolished West Coast in their elimination final, hunting in packs from the outset and never allowing them back in the match. Against Hawthorn last week, they had to back up that effort and intensity, and did so, never wavering in their commitment even when the Hawks pushed their lead out to four goals. They have started $2.60 or more 14 times in the last two years, winning eight at +100% POT and 64% ATS. Those numbers are hard to ignore and with the Giants coming off a week off we could see them catch the Sydney side off guard. The line is far too big.
EPL: Man City -1.5 @ $2.10 (v Swansea) – Sat Midnight
They will lock horns for the second time in just 3 days with Man City deciding to set up camp in Wales for the double header. City were 2-1 victors in the Cup clash and The Wolf says the league game will result in an even more dominating win thanks to the return of Aguero and a preferred line up. De Bruyne, Silva, Sterling and Gundogan will slot straight back into the run on squad. It will be a very different game with Sigurdsson and Llorente in the Swansea line up but they will be unable to change the outcome. City are a perfect 5 from 5 in the league and have won 9 straight across all competitions. They were more than capable of finding the back of the net under Pellegrini but under Pep they are a scoring machine! They have scored multiple goals in all 5 of their EPL matches this season and The Wolf cannot see the Swans keeping this one close. City to find the back of the net at least three times in a crushing win!
NFL: Oakland +2 @ $1.90 (v Tennessee) – Mon 3am
There is a great angle here playing small road outsiders early in the season with road underdogs up to 2.5 44-31-1 ATS since 2005 in Weeks 1-4 including 14-7 ATS in Week 3. The Titans are an awful 13-27-1 ATS since 2011 at home including just 5 covers in their last 23 home games. The Raiders are 4-2 ATS as a small road underdog since 2006. Latavius Murray is averaging over 5 yards per carry and Derek Carr has gone for 319 and 299 yards in the first two weeks of the season. With a wide receiver core that includes Cooper and Grabtree they should be able to outscore the Titans.
EPL: Teams To Score – Arsenal Only @ $4.25 (v Chelsea) – Sun 2:30am
The match of the round sees two very familiar foes face off but it is unlikely to live up to the hype and almost never does. In the last 8 meetings there have been more than two goals on just one occasion and remarkably it has been 9 games since we have seen both teams score in the same game. The Gunners have won their last 3 league games to climb into the top 4 while Chelsea look to turn things around after a disappointing loss at home to Liverpool. The Wolf has had huge concerns over the Chelsea defence since day dot and we saw just why in their League Cup clash against Leicester. To describe their defence in that game as scrappy is a complement as Okazaki capitalised on two terrible errors at the back. They got out of jail in extra time but have now conceded multiple goals in three consecutive matches. If Cahill and David Luiz start at the back for Chelsea The Wolf says to load up on Arsenal. At Emirates Stadium stick with home side. Sanchez and Ozil have a special combination and if Walcott can stay on the field they will be potent moving forward.
Feature Match Previews
College Football: Stanford @ UCLA – Sun 10:00am
Stanford have opened the season with a 2-0 record on the back of some very stern defence. They have won 8 in a row against UCLA and are 7-1 ATS in that stretch making Stanford -3 a red hot best bet! UCLA are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 and tend to rely very heavily on their passing game. Stanford on the other hand have one of the best NFL prospects in Christian McCaffrey and he will absolutely run them into the ground. On the back of his running game they will starve UCLA of the ball which will be a telling factor. Stanford by double figures.
Best Bet: Stanford -3 ($1.90)
EPL: Man United v Leicester – Sat 9:30pm
It may be early in the season but these two sides are heading in very different directions. After a slow start Leicester have won t 2 of their last 3 and managed a impressive away win in the Champions League. The League Cup loss to Chelsea midweek was expected after they rested key players but the reality is that they were every chance after taking a two goal lead. For United what started as a promising season is turning into one of uncertainty. They have lost 3 of their last 4 across all competitions and the cup win over Northampton Town was less than impressive. Rooney seems to have fallen out of favour and the rumours of Mourinho already losing the dressing room have started. United are unbeaten in their last 7 at home to The Foxes (5 wins and 2 draws) and have lost just 1 of their last 16 against them overall. The Red Devils have conceded in their last 4 matches across all competitions. Both teams have found the back of the net in the last 5 meetings and The Wolf expects that trend to continue. Don’t be surprised if Vardy gets on the score sheet as he has netted in 3 of his last 4 against Man U.
Best: Both Teams To Score ($1.72)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.00)