The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – September 22
It’s Preliminary Final weekend in both the AFL and NRL while around the globe the action heats up in the NFL and EPL. The Wolf gives us his best bets.
NRL: North Queensland +8 @ $1.91 (v Sydney Roosters)
The Cowboys have been the giant-killers of the finals series, defeating both the Sharks and Eels when they were rank outsiders in both matches. They’re in the same boat this week and The Wolf says to be wary when writing off the Cowboys. The Roosters last 5 wins have all been by 6 points or less and they have had to come from behind to beat the Broncos, Titans and Tigers. They have looked vulnerable and the Cowboys will be given every chance. The Roosters have covered just 4 of their last 11 at Allianz and only 1 of their last 5 at the venue when favoured by more than a converted try. Their respective finals records also make for interesting reading. The Roosters are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 while the Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12. The money will continue to come for the home side and that is great news for us. The Cowboys with the start is as good as it gets this week!
AFL: Under 155.5 points @ $1.88 (Richmond v GWS)
Richmond play in their first preliminary final in 16 years when they host a GWS outfit looking to bury the demons of last year’s loss to the Western Bulldogs when they were heavily favoured at home. Richmond have won 6 of 8 all-time against GWS but this one is all about the total. The Under has hit in the last 5 meetings and in 9 of the Tigers last 11 at the MCG. Add in the fact that GWS have gone under in 7 straight interstate after scoring 110 or more and you have a recipe for a low scoring affair. With winds predicted to get up to 30km/h on Saturday afternoon they will not be combining for more than 150 points in this one.
NFL: Green Bay -8.5 @ $1.91 (v Cincinnati)
The Packers will be looking to bounce back after their road loss to the Falcons last week and The Wolf is expecting a fired up performance from future hall of fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers against the toothless Bengals. Rodger’s No.1 target Jordy Nelson was an early casualty against the Falcons, but by all reports he’s looking a good chance of taking his spot against the Bengals. The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and should have no problem covering the 8.5 line at Lambeau. Cincy have shown very little through the opening fortnight and Andy Dalton averaging below 200 yard per game and yet to throe a touchdown it is had to see them keeping this one close.
EPL: Stoke Over 1.5 goals @ $4.20 (v Chelsea)
Everyone knows that Stoke are a completely different proposition at home. Shaqiri and Choupo-Moting have looked great in recent weeks which should see the hosts get their fair share of opportunities. Chelsea may be one of the most difficult sides to break down but Stoke have found the back of the net in 12 of their last 13 EPL fixtures at home! The Over is 5-2 in their last 7 league games at home and Chelsea have maintained just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 away from the Bridge. The suspension of David Luiz will force a change at the back and that is music to the ear of Potters fans. Stoke have already taken points from Arsenal and Man Utd at home this season and The Wolf says Chelsea, who have only won 3 of their last 8 away to Stoke (all competitions), will be the next to drop points in Staffordshire. Stoke have found the back of the net in their last 6 against the Blues and after seeing them net twice at home to Man U The Wolf can sniff a similar outcome.
NFL: Oakland @ Washington – Mon 10:30am
The Raiders have looked good over the opening two weeks and should be too strong for a banged up Redskins side, who could be missing RB1 Rob Kelley and tight end Jordan Reed for this clash. Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree had an afternoon out against the Jets last week, cashing in three touchdowns and 60 yards from six receptions. He could be in for another big match, if Josh Norman shadows Amari Cooper here. The Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 1 tHE3 road games and the road team in the past five Redskins and Raiders clashes is 5-0 ATS. The Raiders look the better team at the moment and have scored a combined 71 points in their first two matches this season, while Redskins QB Kirk Cousins looks rusty and needs to rediscover his 2016 form for Washington to match up here.
Best: Oakland -3 ($1.87)
Leicester v Liverpool – Sun 2:30am
King Power Stadium has not been a happy hunting ground for Liverpool. A 2-0 defeat just days ago in the League Cup means they have now lost their last 3 games away to Leicester. This will be a very different match the the on we saw midweek, mainly to due to the fact that both managers rested all of their key players. Vardy, Mahrez and Ihenacho were all given a rest while for Salah, Firmino and Sturridge all failed to suit up for the Reds. Liverpool are now winless in their last 4 matches across all competitions and despite Klopp’s insistence that they have the quality and depth to contend in all competitions his side continues to come up short. The Wolf insists that Liverpool should not be odds on for this one. He warned us to steer clear of the Reds against Burnley and says this is a far more difficult task. Leicester have scored in 9 straight games at home – finding the net on multiple occasions in 6 of those matches. If Liverpool are to take anything out of this one they may very well have to score 3 goals!
Best: Double Chance – Leicester or Draw ($1.83)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.00)