The Wolf’s Sporting Guide

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The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – September 2

Get The Wolf’s best bets across all codes this weekend including the NRL, American Football, Soccer Internationals and other sporting action this weekend..

Wolf’s Best

NRL: Over 45.5 points @ $1.90 (Tigers v Raiders) – Sun 2:00pm
There could be plenty on the line with this one or nothing at all depending on previous results with the Tigers hoping for a Titans loss to be able to push into eighth spot while the Raiders will be hoping for a Melbourne win that could see them drive into second. Regardless, this should be a highly entertaining team. The total has gone over in 11 of the last 13 Raiders matches making it a red hot bet. Canberra are 33-15 over in day matches since 2013 including seven straight overs. In road day matches they are 15-8 over. The Overs in day matches are a huge play at this time of the year and this one is no exception. The Wolf’s best is 5-0 in the last 5 weeks and this will make it 6!

Code Bets

Soccer: Draw @ $3.10 (Slovakia v England) – Mon 2:00am
Sam Allardyce gets his first test as England manager and it will be a tough one. They take on a Slovakia side that held them to a 0-0 draw in the group stage of the European Championships earlier this year and will do so at a hostile Stadión Antona Malatinského. England are undefeated in their last 11 World Cup qualifiers but Slovakia showed us just how difficult they can be to break down. Allardyce has made few changes in his first squad selection with Barkley and Wilshere the only notable omissions. Walcott returns while Michail Antonio is rewarded for his great form with the Hammers. Tactics and style of play will be the two biggest differences but despite the thoughts of Allardyce The Wolf is adamant that Slovakia will play the same negative football that they presented at the Euro’s. In a group that includes Scotland, Slovenia, Lithuania and Malta they will be more than happy with a point. It won’t be worth staying up for but the draw will grab us the cash.

College Football: Toledo +3.5 @ $1.95 (v Arkansas) – Sat 11:00amThe College Football season kicks off this week and The Wolf has made Toledo his best. In a clash of styles he says the Rockets have a superior running game and it will be a telling factor. The Toledo offensive line will be one of the best in the Mid-American Conference with Hunt and Swanson to ensure they big up every last yard. The Toledo secondary isn’t great but if they can keep the ball out of the hand out of Arkansas QB Chad Voytik they should be able to keep this one close and are even a chance for the outright win.

US Open: Sets Marin Cilic 3-0 @ $3.00 (v Jack Sock) – Sat 11:00am
People must really be buying into the hype of Jack Sock as there is no way that Cilic should be $1.40 to win this match outright. The Wolf says he should be closer to $1.20 and has him rated as a genuine chance to win a second US Open title. He has been in scintillating form and is on a 8 match win streak. He played flawless tennis last week in Cincinnati taking down Troicki, Verdasco, Berdych, Coric, Dimitrov and Murray en route to the title. Sock crushed Zverev in his last match but will not be afforded the same opportunity against Cilic. He was able to dominate from the back of the court – something that will not be as easy to accomplish against Cilic. In addition, Cilic will look to expose the Sock backhand which is a distinct weakness. Cilic will fend off the early onslaught before Sock becomes increasingly frustrated, resulting in an array of unforced errors off his racquet. Cilic in straight is huge value here.

Wolf’s Bolter 

NRL: Parramatta WIN @ $2.65 – Sun 12:00pm
Disappointing seasons for New Zealand and Parramatta come to an end on Sunday afternoon at Mt Smart with the Warriors going in marked favourites. How they are such heavy favourites is beyond all belief. They were embarrassing in a must win game last week while the Eels showed just how resilient a side they are under Brad Arthur. The Warriors have failed to cover three straight while the Eels have gone over in three straight. Parra have been playing with plenty of freedom over the last few weeks highlighted by Bevan French’s move to fullback last week. He managed a hat-trick against the Dragons and with the Warriors 1-7 ATS record in their last 8 at Mt Smart we will take the Eels for the outright win.

Wolf’s Multi 

Combined Odds $6.00
NRL: Over 43.5 points (Penrith v Manly) | Soccer: Under 2.5 goals (Slovakia v England)  | College Football: Alabama -11.5 (v USC)

Feature Match Previews

Soccer: Australia v UAE – Wed 1:30am
The Socceroos got their final round of World Cup qualification off to a winning start against Iraq but things will get tougher in the UAE with temperatures forecast in the 40’s. The UAE are also coming off a huge upset win in Japan. They conceded early but a brace from Ahmed Khalil was enough to hand them an all important 3 points. Coach Ange Postecoglou can draw plenty of positives from the win over Iraq. The midfield trio of Mooy, Rogic and Luongo were dominant and with Jedinak anchoring in the holding role the Socceroos have the strongest midfield in all of Asia. It provides a great building block to work with and Leckie also impressed The Wolf. Wolfy would like to see Juric hold down a central role with Leckie working off him. Cahill will replace one of them, most likely Juric, for this one and after the success of Milligan at the back we may see him play there again. The last meeting here ended in a 0-0 draw and in scorching hot conditions don’t expect to see expansive football. There won’t be more than two goals and the best value bet has to be the draw.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.60)
Value: Draw ($3.10)

NRL: Melbourne v Cronulla – Sat 7:30pm
Regular season matches don’t get any bigger than this with first placed Melbourne hosting second placed Cronulla in a match that will determine the minor premiership and top seed in the finals. A win or a draw would secure the minor title for the Storm while the Sharks need a victory to secure their first bit of silverware since their minor premiership in 1999. The Storm have a perfect 6-0 record at AAMI against Cronulla with an average winning margin of 20 with four wins of 18-plus. The last three matches played in Melbourne have all topped 44 points. This will be a smashing match between the two top teams in the premiership. Line betting seems about right here but there is some value on betting Melbourne 1-12 in margin betting. With the minor premiership on the line, it is hard to see the Storm losing this one, particularly with their dominant record at home over the Sharks.
Best Bet: Melbourne 1-12 ($3.05)
Other: Over 37.5 ($1.90)