The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – September 15
This weekend is jam packed with sport from across the globe. We have the qualifying finals in the AFL and NRL while the EPL and NFL are now in full swing.
AFL: West Coast +16.5 @ $1.91 (v GWS) – Sat 7:25pm
Get ready to unload because both the West Coast plus and under in this game are five-chip plays. The Eagles are 13-5 ATS as an interstate underdog of more than two goals and 9-2 ATS after conceding 80 or fewer. They are riding a nice fortnight of momentum while GWS have been all over the shop. The Giants have been unbackable as a favourite at Spotless this season and have failed to cover their last 6 at the venue when favourite. To top it off the Eagles have covered 5 of their last 6 against the Giants and won both meetings this year by 8 and 21 points. There are also some huge under angles here with West Coast 13-3 Under interstate at night and the Giants 4-1 in their last 5 under lights at Spotless. Unload on West Coast plus and under.
NRL: Under 37.5 points @ $1.90 (Parramatta v Nth Qld) – Sat 7:40pm
The Wolf has to admit he thought that the Cowboys were done once Thurston went down but they’ve proven him wrong and they continue to respond to adversity. Three of the last four matches have tallied 38 or fewer and the Eels have a 20-6 Under record at ANZ dating back to 2014. The Eels also have a 7-1 Under record in their last 8 at the venue when favourite by more than a converted try. Then there is the fact that the Cowboys have gone under in 10 of their last 13 after conceding 14 or fewer. This will be a genuine finals battle with both sides to put on a defensive clinic.
EPL: Under 2.5 goals @ $2.05 (v Everton) – Mon 1:00am
The Red Devils dropped their first points of the season away to Stoke last week while Everton look to get something out of a horror month of football. They shared the points in both encounters last year and Everton have lost only 3 of their last 8 EPL clashes against their more fancied opponents. Wayne Rooney would love to find the back of the net against his former club and will be aided by Sigurdsson who has now had some time to form combinations with his new team-mates. The Wolf is expecting a real tactical battle in this one. Koeman will play Schneiderlin and Gueye as double holders with Rooney and Gilfy behind Sandro. Pogba is out for the hosts after coming off with a hamstring complaint in the win over Basel and we could see a change in style as a result. Matic and Lukaku have been logging big minutes for both club and country which could take it’s toll late on. Under 2.5 goals has saluted in 5 of Everton’s last 6 away league games and with both sides in the middle of very busy schedules The Wolf is expecting a more controlled pace and tactical battle – especially in the first half. Unders!
NFL: New England -6.5 @ $1.91 (v New Orleans) – Mon 3:00am
The Saints couldn’t be meeting the Tom Brady-led Patriots at a worse time. The Patriots suffered a shock home loss 42-27 loss to the Chiefs in Week 1 and will travel to New Orleans determined to make amends against one of the the worst defences in the league. The Saints gave up 470 total yards to the Vikings in Week 1, with Vikings QB Sam Bradford (27/32, 346 yards and 3 TDs) along with wide receivers Adam Thielen (9/157) and Stefon Diggs (7/93 – 2 TDs) having a night to remember. If Bradford can do that damage, imagine what Brady will do! The Patriots have won four of their last five games against the Saints and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The Patriots are 5-0 over in their last five games, while the Saints are 4-0 over in their last four games. The Wolf is expecting a shootout and the Patriots to cover.
EPL: Burnley Over 1.5 goals @ $5.50 (v Liverpool) – Sun 12:00am
Mane should not have been sent from the field but he will still serve a three match ban following the club’s appeal being upheld. His suspension combined with the fact that Liverpool are on limited rest following UCL commitments leaves them exposed. Burnley deserve credit for their start to the season. They beat Chelsea and took a point off Spurs and have already accumulated 4 points from their two away games. The Reds have won 5 of the 6 meetings between the clubs in the Premier League era and have maintained a clean sheet in 4 of those wins. That being said… Burnley have found the back of the net in 12 of their last 14 away EPL matches. The Wolf cannot ignore that and says to always proceed with caution when Liverpool are in these spots. He says to make sure you DO NOT put Liverpool in any of your multi’s. Sevilla put two past them in a 2-2 draw in the Champions League and The Wolf can see Burnley doing the same at a huge price.
Boxing: Canelo v GGG – Sun 1:00pm
MayMac was the biggest boxing event in history, but this one could go down as one of the best with two men in the prime of their career competing for 6 world titles. Both men possess lights out punching power and iron chins. Golovkin is the slight favourite but this bout could truly go either way. For Triple G to win he must be willing to take Alvarez into deep waters, use his superior boxing technique and size to frustrate and exhaust his younger opponent. For Canelo he must capitalise on the openings that Gennady presents and stay in the fight. The old saying in combat sports is that styles make fights. This bout possesses the mouth watering battle of a high level boxing chess match combined with brutal force and power. With a rematch clause set in the contract we could be witness to several great fights. This one should go down to the wire, a back and forth bout that will be remembered for the ages. Canelo is tough and will never quit but the Wolf sees Golovkin being too technical and effective for his younger opponent. Triple G by Unanimous Decision or late stoppage.
Best: Golovkin WIN ($1.62)
Other: Golovkin By Points Decision ($4.25)
Rugby Union: Australia v Argentina – Sat 8:00pm
Argentina proved last week that you can never write them off. The Wallabies will need to be far more clinical at the breakdown and at the set piece if they want to notch their first win of the Rugby Championship before heading off on tour. Some of Cheika’s selections have left the Wolf dumbfounded but he is more than happy to be proved wrong by the Wallabies head coach on, Simmons, Hanigan and McMahon who certainly have a lot to prove in the nation’s capital. For the record the Wolf is expecting a tight game at GIO stadium but thinks the Wallabies will have too much class out wide for the South Americans and will get home in a nail-biter.
Best Bet: Australia score first & win ($1.68)
Value Bet: Australia 1 -12 ($2.90)