The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – October 14
The NRL and AFL season may have come to an end but the action continues with the start of the A-League and the NBL. The Wallabies take on Argentina in the Rugby Championship while the American football action continues with both NFL and College football.
EPL: Both Teams To Score – YES @ $1.90 (Arsenal v Swansea) – Sun 1:00am
A Koscielny handball gifted Arsenal all three points in injury time against Burnley and it marked the Gunners 5th consecutive win across all competitions. They have also maintained a clean sheet in their last four a record they will look to extend against a Swansea outfit that have earned just a single point from their last 6 EPL matches. Defence has been a real problem for the Swans who have conceded multiple goals in each of their five losses this season. They have failed to fill the void left by former captain Ashley Williams and things looks set to go from bad to worse against a Arsenal side that has been slicing its way through opposition defences at will. The trio of Sanchez, Walcott and Ozil have already combined for 9 goals and 8 assists this season and The Wolf predicts that they will again be very hard to shut down. Swansea have won 3 of the last 4 meetings and have found the back of the net in 5 of their last 6 against Arsenal. The Gunners will be out for revenge but Swansea won’t take a back seat. This one will be as open as they come.
Rugby League: New Zealand +7.5 @ $1.90 (v Australia) – Sat 7:50pm
International Rugby League heads to Perth for the first time as Australia and New Zealand play a warmup Test before heading to England for the Four Nations. New Zealand usually take a while to warm to a big performance but over the last three seasons have improved vastly, particularly in defence, and that can carry them to a big performance in Perth. Australia are certainly weakened with some big outs and a changing of the guard while the Kiwis go in much stronger than in their mid-year Test. New Zealand certainly have a major edge in aggression and given Australia’s plugging three-quarter line they can take advantage. An upset is brewing.
NBL: Illawarra +4 @ $1.90 (v Melbourne) – Sun 3:00pm
Shooting told the story of these teams in Week 1. United shot just 39% (7th) from the field and 30% (7th) from deep. Illawarra broke NBL records with their 122-point homestand against Adelaide, draining 16 threes at 48.5% with seven different players landing from deep. The Hawks can run and gun all day and are big overs as an underdog.
NFL: Over 47 points @ $1.90 (Kansas City @ Oakland) – Mon 7:05am
The Wolf’s best in the NFL improved to a perfect 5-0 last week and the run looks set to continue. Very keen to bet the over in this one. There is a strong angle here with home favourites of less than a field goal 31-22 ATS Weeks 5-8 since 2006 including a 10-5 ATS record in Week 4. The over is 12-4-1 in the last 17 Raiders home games while 4 of the last 5 Raiders-Chiefs games have gone over. The over is 7-4-1 in the last 12 Chiefs road games.
EPL: Teams To Score – Tottenham Only @ $2.70 (v West Brom)
What a start it has been for Spurs. The are undefeated in the league this season and are hands down the best defensive unit in the EPL. Alderwiereld and Vertonghen have been stalwarts at the back while Walker and Rose continue to be the most dangerous wing back combo in England. Son continues to play a role in the absence of Kane with Wanyama has made the centre of the park his own. With Tony Pulis at the helm for the Baggies it comes as no surprise that they are playing a real grinding style of football. Every point counts under the Pulis philosophy and The Wolf expects them to lead the league in draws this season. The same will apply here with the sides having ended on level terms in 9 of their 20 Premier League clashes. Evans, Dawson and Mcauley will continue to provide stability at the back while Yacob and Fletcher will chop anything than comes their way. Spurs have the edge in class but if they will again be on the back of their defence. Spurs by a single goal.
Feature Match Previews
Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City – Sat 7:50pm
The Sydney Derby stole the show last week and this week it is Melbourne’s turn to put on a spectacle. A packed Etihad Stadium will host Tim Cahill’s A-League debut in what shapes as an absolute thriller. Victory were minutes away from holding on for a win in Brisbane last week but conceded a injury time equaliser to a 10 man raw outfit. City on the other hand were able to hold on for a 1-0 win despite Sorensen being sent off on the hour mark. Bouzanis made some very important saves in his absence and there is no doubt that the Victory will look to test him early. Both sides will go for it from the opening whistle and an open encounter will really suit City. Caceres, Fornaroli and Cahill will be one of the most dangerous trio’s in the A-League this year and The Wolf expects them to strike nice and early. The loss of Troisi won’t help the Victory who will rely on Valeri and Broxham to provide the muscle through the middle. There have been at least 3 goals in each of the last 5 meetings between Victory and City. The Wolf says that trend will continue and has made Over 2.5 goals in this match his best of the week in the A-League.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.57)
Value Bet: 1st Half Over 1.5 goals ($2.35)
Liverpool v Man Utd – Tue 6:00am
Set your alarm clocks folks as this will be no ordinary Tuesday! Bitter rivals Liverpool and Manchester United lock horns in one of the most anticipated matches of the season. The Red Devils have won the last 4 EPL clashes between the two sides but The Wolf says that the power of Klopp is starting to shine through. They have won 4 in a row and have the best attack in the Premier League with 18 goals so far this season. Firmino has really stepped up to the plate over the last month as the Reds continue to get contributions from across the park. The Red Devils continues with their inconsistencies. They were impressive against Leicester but were well below par against Zorya and Stoke where they failed to create enough genuine goal scoring opportunities. Rooney is again set to be on the bench as Mourinho is set to use the trio of Lingard, Mata and Rashford behind Inrahimovic. The problem for United in this one is that they will not be able to cope with the relentless pressure applied by the Reds. Since Klopp came to the club Liveerpool have scored more goals than any other team. The Wolf is getting behind Klopp’s men and is predicting a Liverpool win.
Best: Liverpool WIN ($2.10)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.00)