The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – October 13
Get ready for a huge weekend of football. The A-League is now in full swing while Liverpool host Man Utd in one of the biggest games of the EPL season!
EPL: Under 2.5 goals @ $1.90 (Liverpool v Man Utd) – Sat 10:30pm
What a way to kick of Gameweek 8!!! It’s one of the biggest rivalries in world football and there will be no love lost at Anfield. The international break was far from kind to both sides. Mane is looking a 6 weeks on the sidelines with a hamstring injury while Mourinho will be without Fellaini for at least a few weeks after he picked up a knee injury. It seems like a minor blow but he was very effective in Pogba’s absence and with a busy schedule coming up that includes Champions League, Mourinho will be limited as to the style and tactics he can employ. Tactics have been critical in their recent meetings and goals have consequently very hard to come by. The Unders is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings across all competitions with both teams finding the back of the net in just 4 of the last 11 meetings. As bad as Liverpool have been defensively they have maintained 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home EPL matches. Doing so against a rampant Man Utd will not be easy. United have scored 21 goals this season and conceded just the 2 – both in the one game away to Stoke. Liverpool have had trouble breaking down sides which sit deep and keep a narrow defensive line. This is the case as they are one of the smaller sides in the league and lack any aerial presence. No Mane hurts them and with Mourinho set to start both Herrera and Matic in a defensive-minded midfield The Wolf loves the Unders.
A-League: Teams To Score – WSW Only @ $2.60 (v CCM) – Sat 5:35pm
We may be just a single game into the season but there is not doubt that these sides will be on different ends of the ladder. How Paul Okon thinks his sides 5-1 loss came down to the Jets taking their chances is beyond all belief! He is in for a real reality check this week as the Wanderers will only build on the back of last weeks performance. It was out first look at the quartet of Riera, Cejudo, Bonevacia and Jumpei and there was a lot to like about it! Bonevacia has found his way into a more advanced role than the one he played at the Phoenix and he absolutely thrived in it. Despite winning the most recent meetings the Mariners have done it very tough against the Wanderers in the past. The Sydney side has won 4 of the last 6 meetings with the Mariners managing just 7 goals in their last 10 against the Wanderers. They will fail to find the back of the net at Spotless and if last week’s performance is anything to go by the Mariners could be on the end of another handful.
NFL: Pittsburgh +4.5 @ $1.91 (v Kansas City) – Mon 7:30am
The Steelers will travel to KC to take on the 5-0 Chiefs and will be desperate to erase the horrible memories of their 30-9 home loss against the Jaguars. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be under immense pressure after he threw five interceptions in one of the worst performances of his career. The Wolf is extremely wary of a bounce back effort from the Steelers this week and expects to see plenty of work for RB Le’Veon Bell to take the heat off Big Ben. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are flying with QB Alex Smith in career-best form, while they’ve unearthed a superstar in rookie RB Kareem Hunt. Tight end Travis Kelce is still in the concussion protocol and would be a massive out if he can’t suit up here. The Chiefs could also be guilty of looking too far ahead to their divisional clash against the Raiders next week. The Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and are 7-1 ATS after losing by 20+ points when Roethlisberger has been the quarterback. Take the Steelers with the start.
MLB: Astros -1.5 @ $2.25 (v Yankees) – Sat 10:00am
The Astros met the Yankees earlier this season at home and they won that series 2-1. The Yankees won the first game 13-4. Then the Astros countered with 7-6 and 8-1 victories. Overall, the Astros are 6-2 against the Yankees. In this pitching matchup, Dallas Keuchel will take on Masahiro Tanaka. Keuchel has earned a win in 4 of his last 5 starts against the Yankees. This season his only start against them lasted 6 innings as he allowed just 5 hits. The Astros won that game 3-2 and they’re 4-1 when Keuchel takes on the Yankees. He was only required once in the ALDS against the Red Sox and he went 5.2 innings in a 8-2 Astros victory. This season at home, he went 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA. For the Yankees, they’ll be fired up after winning three straight games against the Indians. Tanaka dominated the Indians in his only start of the postseason as well. He allowed just 3 hits in 7 innings as the Yankees won 1-0. But his road form this season has the Wolf worried. He has a 6.48 ERA and a 4-7 record. The Astros lineup has a .322 batting average against him and 7 home runs in just 59 at bats. His only start against the Astros this season was a disaster. He allowed 8 runs and 4 home runs in a 1.2 inning start. Since that game, the Yankees are 4-7 on the road with Tanaka on the mound. So the Wolf can see the Astros winning game 1. In terms of runs, the over total is 5-0 when the Astros face the Yankees. It’s also 8-4 in the Astros last 12 games and 4-1 when the Yankees head to Houston. So the Wolf would take the overs as well. But in the end, the Astros will be fresh from the break and this is a tough roadtrip for the Yankees first up against Keuchel. So the Wolf is taking the Astros -1.5 and the over total as the safe bet.
EPL: Teams To Score – Newcastle Only @ $7.00 – Mon 6:00am
They haven’t had much to cheer about at St Mary’s Stadium in recent times. Southampton have won just 1 of their last 9 home Premier League matches and have remarkably failed to score in 8 of those matches. Newcastle on the other hand are one of the hot sides in the top flight. They have lost just 1 of their last 5 and are coming off a hard earned draw at home to Liverpool. They have a favourable run over the next month and The Wolf expects them to tally points on the back of it. Ritchie and Atsu have been very effective out wide and they will put a tonne of pressure on Cedric and Bertrand. The Saints midfield duo of Romeu and Lemina is a real downgrade on recent seasons (Wanyama, Schneiderlin, Cork ect) and an area they have failed to address. The Wolf has Newcastle winning the midfield battle and is shocked to see Southampton this short in the market!
Cricket: 3rd T20 India v Australia – Sat 12:30am
A fantastic performance by Jason Behrendorff helped Australia equalize the series and go into the final match with an excellent chance of winning the series. Of course, India can be expected to come back strongly and put up a stiff fight as well to make the last match of this tour an exciting proposition. Losing three wickets in the powerplay of T20 innings will put you on the losers side more than not so when India ended up losing 4, the Wolf quickly started looking for betting opportunities towards an Aussie win. A grassy pitch with lateral movement turned out to be the undoing of the Indians in the last match but a flat, docile, wicket awaits them for the decider. Shikhar Dhawan is the man that the Wolf is interested in as the potential top batsman for India in this match. He plays his IPL matches for the Hyderabad franchise and knows what run scoring is all about on this surface. Now to the Aussies. Henriques, in fact, was the highest scorer in the last match and the Wolf is backing him to do the same in this match as well. He is good against spin and playing at number 3 allows him to control the innings at his own pace. Australia has the momentum going for it and has sorted out its batting order at just the right time. The Wolf is backing Australia to win the match and the series.
Winner: Australia ($2.25)
Top Bat India: Shikhar Dhawan ($3.70)
Top Bat Aus: Moises Henriques ($6.00)
A-League: Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City – Sat 7:50pm
Kevin Muscat will not be happy with the result but he will be pleased at how his side stacked up against Sydney FC with several key members failing to take part. Milligan will not back up from Socceroos duty after logging 120 minutes while Troisi is also unlikely after playing over 70 minutes. Their participation or lack thereof is likely to determine the result. If they play The Wolf has the Victory grabbing all 3 points but regardless of their participation there is one thing that we always see when big brother takes on little brother – GOALS! There have been 3 or more goals in the last 8 clashes and just the 1 draw in that stretch. City have lost just 1 of the last 5 encounters and came out on top in two of the last three meetings last season. McCormack will improve with every game and there was much to like about his combination with Kamau. With Fornaroli and Brandan out for most of the season they will need to contribute on a weekly basis. Berisha has scored in his last two against City and 5 of his last 7 A-League games at home. The goals will start early and will continue to come throughout the 90 minutes.
Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals ($2.60)
Value Bet: Over 4.5 goals ($4.50)