The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – November 17
Huge weekend of sport as the EPL returns following the international break. We also have the quarter finals of the Rugby League World Cup and endless American sports including the NBA and NFL.
A-League: Under 2.5 goals @ $2.25 (Sydney FC v Newcastle) – 7:50pm
The Sky Blues lost their first A-League fixture in 15 matches last week and this week their 19 games unbeaten run at home goes on the line. The Jets are undefeated but it’s the style of football they are playing which is turning heads. They lead the league with 15 goals and are playing to their strengths – the front quartet. Sydney FC are undefeated in their last 13 against the Jets with 11 wins in that stretch! The numbers don’t look good for the Jets. They have failed to score in 11 of the last 12 meetings including the last 6. It’s cause for concern but The Wolf says this is a very different Jets side. They are however yet to meet the top two sides who are ironically also the two best defensive sides. With the Under going 11-1 in the last 12 meetings and Graham Arnold renowned for setting up compact in big matches The Wolf says there will be nothing between them. After conceding twice last week Sydney will be completely focused defensively.
RLWC: New Zealand -14.5 @ $1.90 (v Fiji) – Sat 5:30pm
The Kiwis will have to do it the hard way after their shock 28-22 loss to Tonga last week and will now have to beat both Fiji, and most likely Australia just to reach the World Cup Final. The Kiwis held a 16-2 lead over Tonga at half-time, but couldn’t contain a rampant Tongan side in the second half. This is a massive danger game for the Kiwis and the loss to Tonga could be the wake-up call that they needed. Fiji have scored the most points (168) in the tournament and have conceded just 28 points through their three pool games. The counterargument to this is that Fiji have had one of the softest draws to date, with pool matches against the USA, Wales and Italy. This is Fiji’s grand-final and The Wolf isn’t sure if they’re up to the step up in class against a fired up Kiwi side.
EPL: 2nd Half Over 1.5 goals @ $1.80 (Arsenal v Tottenham) – Sat 11:30pm
It doesn’t get much better than the North London Derby. Tottenham are undefeated in the last 6 EPL encounters between the two sides and have won 9 of their last 11 league games on the road. That being said Arsenal have won their last 10 EPL home fixtures with 7 clean sheets in that stretch. The break will have done them wonders with several players carrying niggling injuries leading into it. History suggests this one will be settled in the second half. We have seen multiple goals in the second half in 5 of their last 7 meetings and that should continue. 7 of the last 8 Gunners’ goals have come in the second stanza and Spurs have not conceded in the opening half in their last 4 games across all competitions. Things will open right up in the second half.
Rugby Union: Australia +7.5 @ $1.90 (v England) – Sun 2:00am
The marquee match of the Wallabies Spring tour and its set to be an absolute beauty. England have built an extraordinary amount of depth from 1 through to 15 under Eddie Jones and consequently they perhaps boast the most well rounded team in International Rugby. Their tight 5 is immense and it is going to take a big effort from the Wallabies up front to gain parity at set piece and line out time. The thing the Australians do have in their favour however is an inform, settled line up that is really starting to click. The Wolf believes that a Wallabies victory in London is a distinct possibility and will stem from huge games from their X-factor players such Sean McMahon, Will Genia and Kurtley Beale. Unfortunately he is of the belief that England will be too powerful for the Aussies and will scrape home in a classic.
EPL: Over 4.5 goals @ $3.40 (Leicester v Man City) – Sun 2:00am
After a rocky start to the season Leicester have turned things around with a 5 game unbeaten run in the league but this weekend they face the ultimate test when they host runaway league leaders Man City. As it stands Pep’s side are the dominant side in Europe. They are undefeated across all competitions this season and The Wolf says they could break a stack of EPL records from most points to most goals and biggest margin. No side has been able to shut them down and we saw them dismantle Napoli and Arsenal – two of Europe’s best. City have found the back of the net 15 times in their last 4 league games and have also won all 5 of their away games in the league to date. Leicester have scored in 12 straight home games and have won 2 of the last 3 meetings – matches in which both teams have scored and with an average of more than 4 goals per game. Both teams will score, there will be goals galore and City will grab all 3 points.
Perth v Melbourne Victory – Sun 7:00pm
The longest domestic trip in world football was not a pleasant one for the Glory but they return home where they have won their last 4 and 8 of their last 10. The Victory conceded late and we won’t know the playing status of Milligan, Troisi and Barbarouses up until the side is finalised an hour before kick off. We saw them back up from international duty last time but with this game in Perth it may be a different story. The Glory have won the last 3 meetings at nib Stadium and the theme in this series, as in many involving the Glory, is goals! Both teams have found the back of the net in 10 of the last 11 meetings with the Over going 4-1 in the last 5 matches in the west. Until the Victory get all of their bodies back on deck The Wolf is more than happy to back against them.
Best Bet: Perth WIN ($2.50)
Value Bet: Perth Glory Over 2.5 goals ($4.00)
Philadelphia @ Dallas – Mon 12:30pm
The Ezekiel Elliott saga looks to be finally over, with the Cowboys running back agreeing to serve out his six-game suspension. It’s a major blow to the Cowboys running game and more importantly the chance to spread the Eagles defence. The Cowboys will also be without linebacker Sean Lee who is the leader of the Cowboys defence. Pardon the pun, but the Eagles are flying! QB Carson Wentz is having a MVP-like season for the 8-1 Eagles and they’ll be well-rested on the back of their Week 10 bye. They’ve got weapons all over field, with Jay Ajayi, Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffrey all demanding attention. The Eagles have covered the spread in their last 6 games overall and look to have too much firepower for a Cowboys side missing key personnel (Lee and Elliott) on both sides of the ball.
Best: Philadelphia -3.5 ($1.91)