The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – May 19
The sporting action continues this weekend. The EPL season wraps up while in the NRL the players get one last chance to impress before State Of Origin selection. In the AFL just 1 win separates the top 9 teams while in the NBA we are into the Conference Finals.
NRL: Newcastle +10 @ $1.91 (v Penrith) – Sun 2:00pm
The Knights produced one of the upsets of the year when they defeated the Raiders 34-20 last week. They’ll be looking at building on that performance and making it consecutive wins at home and The Wolf is shocked to see them as such big outsiders. Home underdogs of 8 or more cover at 63% dating back to 2008. Since 2013, the Knights are 8-7 ATS getting 10 points at home. Home underdogs of more than a converted try off a win are 9-4 ATS since 2014. The Panthers have covered just 2 of their last 7 after posting 30 points and after leaking 26 points in the first half against the Warriors we should see Newcastle get out to a lead. The +10 start looks very generous for the home team and the Panthers have hardly been playing consistent football this season.
AFL: Hawthorn +12.5 @ $1.91 (v Collingwood) – Sat 7:25pm
It is astonishing to think Collingwood are just 2-6 and anchored in 17th on the ladder considering some of their performances which include wins in Sydney and against Geelong and close losses to GWS and the Bulldogs. That record looks set to continue as they have a terrible record against the Hawks. Hawthorn have won 9 straight against Collingwood dating back to 2012, posting 100-plus in all of them. The Hawks have covered 7 of 9 against the Magpies since 2012 and they are 7-2 ATS as an outsider at the MCG since 2012. Collingwood are absolute poison as a favourite and with Hawthorn finding some form over the last month are the team to bet. Don’t mind the injury crisis that has swept the Hawks. They have historically bested the Magpies, they are great plays as an underdog and are a good cover team at the MCG at night. Collingwood cover just 38% of games as a favourite.
EPL: Crystal Palace WIN @ $2.70 (v Man Utd) – Sun 12:00am
We’ve all seen the meme’s about Mourinho and his sides results but they can salvage their season by winning the Europa League and the ‘chosen one’ is fully aware of it. He has already hinted that he will play a completely second string side for this clash and a loss would mean one of the worst statistical seasons Old Trafford has ever seen. Here is a quick run down of the last 12 months… Man Utd sacked Louis Van Gaal and appointed Mourinho. They then signed Zlatan, the Bundesliga player of the year (Mkhitaryan) and the world’s most expensive footballer in Pogba. In addition they went 25 league games without defeat yet they will still finish 6th! The stats don’t lie. Utd will win no more than 18 league games this season – the clubs fewest in the Premier League era and their current goal tally of 52 is the lowest behind only Van Gaal’s side last season. To add insult to injury they have fewer wins at home than relegated Hull. Things will go from bad to worse when Palace take all 3 points. Only Europa can salvage their season.
Super Rugby: Rebels +12.5 @ $1.90 (v Waratahs) – Sun 4:05pm
Another round 13 potential classic. The return of McMahon and Timani will give the Rebels a hard edge and if they can get clean ball to blokes like Korobiete and Naivalu the Wolf could see them inflicting the Waratahs 5th home loss in a row. With finals on the line, the Waratahs definitely have more to play for but with rain predicted all weekend we are likely to see the two sides trade penalty goals throughout. It makes the start a huge one and with the Rebels coming of a very valiant performance they are a great bet at the line.
NRL: Melbourne 1-12 @ $3.00 (v South Sydney) – Sun 6:30pm
The Storm don’t lose two in a row too often and The Wolf is expecting a big response from the Storm defensively. The forecast suggests it could be a wet track on Sunday, making both the Storm 1-12 and under 39.5 points strong plays. The Rabbitohs returned to the winner’s circle with a 28-8 win over the Tigers. Former Tiger Robbie Farah was instrumental in the win, while Sam Burgess was unstoppable. 10 of the last 11 have failed to break 34 points between these two maybe a big margin of victory very unlikely. With South covering 7 of the last 11 a blowout is unlikely. Storm 1-12 is the value.
AFL: Melbourne v Nth Melbourne – Sun 3:40pm
Melbourne and North Melbourne have mixed their form this year and with both teams outside the Top 8 each have earmarked this as a key clash. Melbourne have won 2 of their last 3 games and have moved up to 10th on the ladder. The Dees pulled off a monster upset last week with a dominant 41-point win over the Crows in Adelaide. North Melbourne have won 15 straight over Melbourne dating back to 2007 with the Demons getting within four goals just twice. North have covered 7 of their last 11 at the MCG dating back to 2012 while the Demons have failed to cover their last 5 at the ground. Upset is on the cards.
Best: Nth Melbourne +13.5 ($1.91)
Prop: Jack Ziebell 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
NRL: Bulldogs v Roosters – Sun 4:00pm
The Bulldogs will be looking to bounce back after last week’s disappointing loss to the Thurston-less Cowboys, while the Roosters will be high on confidence after putting up a cricket score over the Eels. The Wolf is really looking forward to this clash and is expecting the Bulldogs to come out all guns blazing. Unfortunately the Bulldogs halves pairing of Frawley and Mbye is still a work in progress, and the Roosters have a clear advantage here with Keary and Pearce. Look for Pearce to have a big match as he looks for a NSW recall after a troubled 2016. The Bulldogs/Roosters HT/NT double looks great value at $7.50.
Best Bet: Canterbury +6.5 ($1.91)
Other: Canterbury/Sydney ($7.50)