The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – June 30
The Wolf returns with his best bets across all sporting codes for this weekend. He has been on a heater with 5 chipper saluting at almost a daily rate!!! He has another two lined up for this weekend.
NRL: Manly -6.5 @ $1.91 (v New Zealand) – Sat 5:30pm
Manly are on a roll at the moment and there really is no stopping them. They have won 5 straight and 11 of their last 12 highlighted by a 17 point win over the defending premiers. The Warriors are yet to win 3 in a row this season and have a dreadful record in Perth, losing in all five of their trips there. Manly have covered 9 of their last 12 away from Brookvale and have held the Warriors to 18 or less in their last 6 clashes. Taupau and Jake to lay the platform with Cherry-Evans to stake him claim for an Origin jersey with a man of the match performance. Manly could win this by 20!
AFL: Under 165.5 points @ $1.88 (Port Adelaide v Richmond) – Sat 7:40pm
It’s rare for The Wolf to roll out all 5 chips but he has done so several times this week. The Unders saluted with ease in the NRL clash between the Dogs and Eels on Thursday and he is expecting a repeat in the other footy code. Every indicator in this match – every indicator – says this game is going to be a low-scoring under game. These teams are the top two defences in the AFL. They have a history of under games. Port are a huge under team at night with the under going 15-3 in night matches at Adelaide Oval. In addition, Richmond are 13-6 under after conceding 60 or fewer points. This game won’t tally even 150.
Confederations Cup: Over 2.5 goals @ $1.60 (Portugal v Mexico) – Sun 10:00pm
Portugal went into their semi final clash against Chile as firm favourties – wrongly so according to The Wolf. Chile were able to dominate possession and created the better chances including hitting the woodwork twice in the matter of seconds. Neither side were able to break the deadlock and when they went to penalties it was Bravo who was the hero. Portugal missed all three of their penalties with Ronaldo not even attempting one. Santos will surely start Quaresma for this one and his side should have little troubles breaking down a Mexico defence which has consistently leaked goals. Germany put 4 past them and it could have been more. The 3rd place playoff match has consistently been the most entertaining of the competition! There have been four or more goals in each of the last three matches to settle 3rd place with all three of them going to extra time. The Wolf is rolling out all 5 chips for Over 2.5 goals and wouldn’t be surprised if we see 5 or even six!
Boxing: Under 10.5 Rounds @ $2.05 (Pacquiao v Horn) – Sun 1:00pm
Jeff Horn, an ex-schoolteacher from Brisbane has somehow landed a world title fight against one of the world’s greatest ever boxers in Filipino, Manny Pacquiao. Pacquiao needs no introduction given he’s won titles in 8 different weight divisions but the real question is, does Horn stand any chance of victory? Well, according to the Wolf, the answer is a resounding no. This fight is a complete mis-match that looks to have been setup as the first fight in Pacquiao’s “farewell tour”. His record stands at 59-6-2 (38 KOs) and he fought, and won convincingly, twice last year beating Timothy Bradley & Jessie Vargas – dropping both fighters. We could look at strategy and key strengths and weaknesses but the simple fact of the matter is that the gulf in class is just too big. Horn is currently trading at around the $5 mark, he should be $50 in reality. Manny will ensure the sellout crowd have something to cheer for but will put Horn to bet in the middle rounds.
NRL: Cronulla 13+ @ $5.50 – Sat 4:00pm
The Wolf is expecting a huge response from the Sharks this week. They were out-muscled and out-enthused last week but they can be excused with 5 players backing up from Origin. Cronulla have had the wood over the Roosters in recent seasons winning the last 5 meetings. The sharks have consistently won the forwards battle which has allowed them to then go wide and pile on the points. At a neutral venue it is surprising to see the Sharks start as underdogs. They are 12-5 ATS in road games since 2014. The Roosters have conceded 16 or more in 5 straight and with the Sharks averaging 26ppg in their last 5 against the Roosters The Wolf is predicting the Sharks to do a number on them.
Roll out the strawberries and cream because it is that time of the year again. This is the first time in close to a decade that the majority of top ranked players come to The championships in indifferent form. World number 1 and defending champion Andy Murray is in all sorts. He was beaten in his opening match at Queen’s Club and has 6 losses this season to players ranked outside the top 20. Djokovic is in a similar position. He played the week before Wimbledon for the first time since 2006 and it is a clear sign that his game is far from where he believes it should be. He has just the one title this year and that came back in January. Nadal hasn’t played since the French and could only ever win here when he was at the peak of his powers. The script is written for Roger. He is the form player on tour this season and his win in Halle last week was his 4th title of the season. He is 25-2 on the season and is a 7 time winner at SW19 and has made the semi’s or better in 11 of his last 14 appearances. There is value around for last year’s runner up Milos Raonic but the Wolf says to make sure you have something on Marin Cilic. He has made the quarters here in the last 3 years and had multiple match points against Federer last year. He was a title winner in Istanbul and a runner up on grass to Lopez at Queen’s which is always a good form line for Wimbledon.
Best: Roger Federer ($3.25)
Other: Milos Raonic ($17.00)
Value: Marin Cilic ($21.00)
Cycling: Tour de France
This weekend sees the start of the 104th edition of pro-cycling’s most famous event, the Tour de France. Chris Froome will be looking for his 4th title and 3rd in a row, whilst riders such as Richie Porte and Fabio Aru will be hoping that the change of route will lead to a more open spectacle and the end of the Team Sky dominance of the peloton. Chris Froome is looking to add to his 3 titles but has looked a shadow of his former self this season. Richie Porte on the other hand comes into the Tour in imperious form and enjoying one of his most successful years of his career having won both the Tour Down Under & the Tour of Romandie. There is value about for Fabio Aru who has a strong support group with Dane and Fuglsnag. The Wolf suspects that Froome is in decline and if he falls off the map we could see one of his team-mates emerge. Sergio Henao is a crazy price at $251, especially when you consider that he has a stack of top 10’s to him name this year. It’s one of the most open tour’s in recent time and The Wolf says it will not disappoint.
Best Bet: Richie Porte ($2.70)
Value Bet: Fabio Aru ($21)
Roughie: Sergio Henao ($251)