The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – June 23
The Wolf returns with his best bets across all sporting codes for this weekend. We are back to a full round in the AFL while the lead in to Wimbledon continues in Halle and at Queen’s Club. The Socceroos also get one last chance to shine at the Confederations Cup.
AFL: North Melbourne +13.5 @ $1.91 (Western Bulldogs) – Sat 7:25pm
North Melbourne are the best of the weekend without question. They can be backed at the line and in head-to-head markets with total confidence. The premiers are officially in all sorts of strife having fallen out of the eight and The Wolf says the Kangaroos will capitalise. North have a near perfect record as an underdog of more than two goals in Melbourne and they have covered 6 of their last 9 against the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are awful as big favourites at Etihad (8-16 ATS) while the Kangaroos are money going 13-4 ATS at the ground in their last 17 when an underdog of more than two goals. Get the chips in on the Kangaroos.
NRL: Under 42 points @ $1.90 (Canberra v Brisbane) – Sat 5:30pm
One point separated these sides when they met in Round 4 this year and The Wolf is expecting another tight affair. The loss of Anthony Milford is a massive blow for the Broncos chances and home advantage could prove the difference for the Green Machine here. The Wolf’s recommended play is to back the Unders with nine of the last 12 matches failing to break 40 points. The under is also 19-9 when an interstate underdog of 3.5 or less scored 24 or more points in their previous match. With the Broncos having a handful of stars backing up from Origin The Wolf expects Wayne Bennett to really simplify the game plan and that includes kicking for touch to slow things down. The Raiders are not the scoring machine they were last year and 6 of their last 8 have failed to reach 42 points. The smart money will be on the Under.
Confederations Cup: Mexico WIN @ $2.40 (v Russia) – Sun 1:00am
This is the pivotal match in Group A with host nation Russia finding themselves in a must win match. Mexico’s come from behind win over New Zealand means that a draw will be enough to see them through to the semi finals. With Portugal expected to account for New Zealand it means that Russia need to grab all 3 points. The Wolf though cannot see it happening. Russia were unable to establish any sort of stronghold in central midfield against Portugal while Mexico failed to convert on a number of chances against NZ. Mexico will have the advantage of being well rested after they made 8 changes for the clash with NZ. Chicharito, Carlos Vela and Jiminez will all be back in the starting XI and they will have plenty of opportunities to pounce on the counter with the hosts set to really press up the field. Mexico have scored multiple goals in 4 of their last 5 matches and if they can get one early The Wolf feels that they could really go on with this one. Ideally, they would like to avoid Chile in the semi’s – especially after the 7-0 loss at the Copa America last year. Mexico 2-0.
AFL: Carlton +13.5 @ $1.91 (v Richmond) – Sun 3:20pm
Carlton are a sensational bet in this one to knock off rivals Richmond. The Tigers’ inability to close out tight matches is becoming increasingly concerning. The Blues have absolutely superb cover records in day matches at the MCG covering 18 of their last 25. They are also 19-7 ATS at the home of football when an underdog of more than two goals. Carlton continue to surprise and with the Tigers coming off a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Swans they are set to let one slip yet again. Both sides rely on their defence and a low total makes the line even bigger. Blues!
NRL: Manly WIN & Under 36.5 points ($4.25) – Sun 4:00pm
Everything is lining up in the Eagles favour in this one. Manly have won 7 of the last 9 clashes at Shark Park and 13 of the last 15 meetings overall. The Sharks are 1-7 ATS in the Shire this year, not to mention 1-10 ATS after scoring 24 or more at the ground. Manly have covered 9 of their last 12 away from Brookvale and they only have Jake backing up from Origin – compared to 5 stars for the Sharks. Don’t expect to see many points either with 5 of the last 6 meetings tallying 32 points or fewer. The Sharks have been getting away with poor starts all season long but their luck will run out. Manly to hold them off in a tight one.
Alexander Zverev v Richard Gasquet – Sun 12:05am
Gasquet continues to get results on grass yet no one is giving him the respect he deserves. This match should be much closer to a flip! Zverev is yet to have his serve broken this week but that will change. Gasquet has broken serve more times than any other player this week. The Frenchman has generated a total of 12 breaks of serve – with at least 3 in each of his matches this week and they have hardly come against slouches. Monfils has one of the best hold percentages on tour, Tomic’s best surface is grass and Haase was coming off wins over Ferrer and Thiem. The Wolf will say it again… Gasquet is a two time semi finalist at Wimbledon and if they keep putting up prices like this we will continue to back him!
Best Bet: Gasquet +2.5 ($2.00)
Value Bet: Gasquet WIN ($2.90)
AFL: St Kilda v Gold Coast – Sun 4:40pm
St Kilda and Gold Coast round out a compelling Round 14 with both teams needing a win to stay in contact with the Top 8. The over is the bet in a very difficult last game for punters. The Suns as a big outsider tend to play fairly loose and that has historically led to a lot of over games. The over is 15-6 when Gold Coast are +18.5 or bigger interstate off a loss which is a significant stat to say the least. It is hard to see this one not surpassing the smallish total. In the player props Seb Ross has hit 110 in seven of his last nine games with one of those misses a close-up 107. He is a ball magnet who will love the likely wide-open game.
Best: Over 180.5 points ($1.88)
Prop: Seb Ross 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.75)