The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – June 16
The Wolf is coming off yet another big week with his best in the NRL, AFL, Union and NBA all grabbing the cash last week. He’s back with his best again this week and has provided us with feature previews for Origin 2 and the upcoming Confederations Cup featuring the Socceroos.
NRL : Under 36.5 points @ $1.90 (Melbourne v Nth Qld) – Sat 5:30pm
The Wolf can’t understand how the NRL would allow this clash to be scheduled in the lead-up to Origin 2 but it presents us with one of the bets of the year! The Unders is more than a bet in this one with both sides missing a host of players. The game plan will be simple for both of these under-strength sides – focus on defence! Six of the last seven matches have totalled 35 or fewer and the Storm are a 9-1 Under team in their last 10 at home as a favourite of less than a converted try. The Wolf is making the Unders a five-chip special!
AFL: Port Adelaide -57.5 @ $1.91 (v Brisbane) – Sat 4:35pm
This will be a total hatchet-job, a one-sided mugging that is going to get very ugly. Port have made a habit of laying the smack down on really bad teams and on home turf they are lethal as a huge favourite. They have covered 4 of their last 5 against Brisbane and have won three straight against the Lions – all by margins of 77 or more. The Lions are dreadful interstate and worse off a rare win. They have failed to cover the start in their last 4 matches at the Adelaide Oval with an average losing margin of 103 points in those games. This could get to three figures.
Confederations Cup: Under 2.5 goals @ $1.95 (Russia v NZ) – Sun 1:00am
There is a perception that the host nation will always perform well at a major tournament. With Russia The Wolf is not so sure. They are one of the most inexperienced sides at the tournament and have had very few competitive matches due to the fact that they automatically qualify for the World Cup as the host nation. If there is one thing that is for certain with New Zealand it is that they will defend their socks off. It all started at the 2010 World Cup where New Zealand were eliminated in the group stage despite not conceding a single goal. That defensive style has continued to prosper and they have conceded more than once in just 1 of their last 19 internationals. They are coming off losses to Northern Ireland and Belarus in friendlies but both were via a 1-0 scoreline. The Wolf says they will not have the fire power to trouble teams on the score-sheet but the Unders is as a a bet as we will find this entire weekend.
NRL: Wests Tigers +10.5 @ $1.91 (v Cronulla) – Sat 7:30pm
The Sharks enter this clash without five Origin stars (Fifita, Graham, Holmes, Maloney and Bird), while the Tigers are missing two of their best players (Tedesco and Woods). Luke Brooks is set to make his return from a hamstring injury and it couldn’t come at a better time. The Tigers could have arguably beaten a full-strength Sharks side at Leichhardt in Round 9, making the 11.5 line seem inflated with the Sharks missing five crucial members of their sides. Of course the Tigers will be without Tedesco and Woods, but they still have enough stability across the park to prevent a blowout against an under-strength Sharks side. The Sharks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at Shark Park and the Tigers have covered 6 of their last 8 as a road underdog of 10 or more points. The Wolf is very keen on the Tigers with the big start.
Confederations Cup Winner: Chile @ $3.60
Make no mistake about it, Chile are here to win this tournament! Coach Antonio Pizzi has selected the strongest squad possible with Alexis Sanchez and Arturo Vidal to lead the way. This is the side that has defeated Argentina in the last two Copa America finals and ended Spain’s reign as World Cup Champions. Isla and Medel are stalwarts in defence and there is no hiding the ability of Alexis Sanchez but The Wolf says it is Vidal who is the key to success. Only Verratti and Kante can be spoken of in the same sentence when it comes to the world’s best holding midfielders but Vidal also provides something that the others don’t – goals. The Wolf is also expecting a massive tournament from Sanchez. He will be leaving Arsenal in the summer and his stocks look set to sky rocket if his form continues over the next fortnight. Chile are the The Wolf’s pick to win the tournament with Vidal to win the Golden Ball and Sanchez the Golden Shoe for top goalscorer.
AFL: Western Bulldogs v Melbourne – Sun 3:20pm
Round 13 wraps up with an interesting affair between premiers the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne with a spot in the Top 8 likely on the line. The Bulldogs may have won just 1 of their last 4 but come into this one with a dominant record over the Dees. They have won 11 of their last 13 when facing the Demons and have covered in 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS at Etihad as a favourite of fewer than three goals while the Dogs have covered just 3 of their last 11 at the venue. The smart money will be on the Dogs.
Best: Western Bulldogs -10.5 ($1.91)
Prop: Nathan Jones 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.90)
State Of Origin II: NSW v QLD – Wed 8:10pm
Queensland heads to Sydney needing to win Game 2 to keep the 2017 State of Origin series alive after they were blown off the park by NSW 28-4 in Game 1 at Suncorp Stadium. Queensland’s policy of picking-and-sticking has gone out the window, with seven changes made to the side that lost the opener. The last four times the road team has won the series opener they wrapped the series up on home turf. The last eight matches in Sydney have tallied 32 or less – the last match to top that number was in 2010. None of the last five live matches at the ground have topped more than 22 points with two of the last three tallying 10. The Maroons will improve with the return of Thurston and Slater but Origin is won in the middle where the Blues have a significant edge. The Wolf likes the Blues 1-12 and is keen to play the Unders too!
Best Bet: NSW 1-12 ($2.65)
Other Bet: Under 32.5 ($1.90)