The Wolf’s Sporting Guide

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The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – July 8

The Wolf’s Sporting Guide is coming off a big week with his bolter ($4.75) and multi ($7.50) both grabbing the cash. He again gives his best across the NRL, AFL and Super Rugby along with specials from UFC 200, Wimbledon and the Euro 2016 Final.

Wolf’s Best

NRL: Over 41.5 points @ $1.90 (Dogs v Tigers) – Sat 7:45pm
Canterbury and the Wests Tigers have met 30 times with the Bulldogs successful in 19 clashes, including a 36-4 demolition in Round 10 this year. The Bulldogs have won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the last eight matches between the two teams topping 40 points. In another interesting statistic five of the last six have had margins of 20-plus. Canterbury and the over are both plays in this one. The Bulldogs typically dominate the Tigers and in current form should be able to put a number on them, particularly with no James Tedesco on board. Despite wet weather, the over is the best bet based on the strong history of points between these two and the Bulldogs being a strong over team at ANZ when heavily favoured.

Code Bets

AFL: Crows -33.5 @ $1.91 (v Blues) – Sun 1:10pm
The gloss has come off Carlton in recent weeks, while the Crows are flying high with six wins in a row. Those who took the early line of -20.5 last week were rewarded and you will again want to be on early. The Blues are coming off three consecutive losses to Collingwood, GWS and St Kilda where they failed to cover the line in any of them. Adelaide are rocking to the tune of six wins in a row, with big scalps like GWS, West Coast in Perth and North Melbourne, as well as easier fare like Gold Coast at Metricon, St Kilda, and Melbourne at the MCG which wasn’t handed to them. The Crows last six games at the MCG have gone over and a high total will help the cover. Add to that the fact that Adelaide has the best record at the line this year of any team and you have a red hot special.

Euro 2016 Final: France WIN @ $2.00 (v Portugal) – Mon 5:00am
France meet Portugal in the Euro 2016 Final and the hosts look to win their 3rd major trophy on home soil. They won Euro 1984 as hosts and who can forget their World Cup triumph in 1998 where they beat Brazil 3-0 in the very same stadium where this match will take place. Portugal have battled their way to the Final and the luck of the draw has been more than just kind to them. They accounted for Wales in the semi and it was their first regulation time win for the tournament. It came after an extra time victory over Portugal and a penalty shootout win over Poland. France on the other hand have really come into their own. They put 5 past Iceland and their performance against Germany was impressive to say the least. Griezmann has been the player of the tournament with Pogba finally starting to make those driving runs through the middle of the park. Portugal will again look to Ronaldo wherever possible but there is only so much he can do. France has won the last 10 encounters between the two (including extra time and penalties) and with 13 goals compared to Portugal’s 8 they will have too much fire power. Les Blues to win by 2 goals.

Super Rugby: Stormers -8.5 @ $1.90 (v Force)
The Stormers can confirm their place in the finals with a win in Perth this weekend, while the Force are striving to climb off the bottom of the Australian Conference table before the season is out. The Force have lost their last three narrowly to the Blues, Rebels and Cheetahs – the latter a one-point defeat in Bloemfontein. With a 2-11 record, they are three points adrift of the second-last Reds in the Australasian Group standings. The Force are ranked 17th in attack and 16th in defence. The Stormers have taken 6 of the last 7 encounters including 3 of the last 4 in Perth. The Force struggle to put points on the board, while the absence of Hodgson and McCalman prevents them from competing with Super Rugby’s better forward packs. The Stormers cut loose with seven tries last week against the Rebels and a similar outcome appears certain this week. The tourists shape as arguably the best option against the line of the entire round.

Wolf’s Bolter

Wimbledon: Sets Williams 2-1 @ $3.80 (v Kerber) – Sat 10:00pm
Serena’s chase for an elusive 22nd Grand Slam will come against Angelique Kerber – the same woman who denied her at the Australian Open earlier this year. In the semi finals Serena came out and made some sort of statement, beating Vesnina 6-2 6-0 in just 48 minutes! That is her 3rd bagel set victory for the tournament and if she can replicate that performance Kerber doesn’t stand a chance. Don’t write off the German though. She shocked the world on Rod Laver Arena and she is yet to drop a set at the tournament. Serena’s older sister Venus threw everything at her but it wasn’t enough. Serena leads the H2H 5-2 but Kerber is a different player in 2016, especially after winning her maiden Grand Slam. The Wolf expects Kerber to hit down the line regularly off both wings just as she did in their clash at the Australian Open. She knows how to utilise her lefty serve and with Serena having all the pressure on her this one will go the distance. Serena in three.

Wolf’s Multi 

Combined Odds $9.00
NRL: Sharks +4.5 (v Panthers) | AFL: Eagles -19.5 (v Kangaroos)  | Euro 2016: Over 2.5 goals (France v Portugal)
Last weeks multi saluted at $7.50 and this weekend I have another treble for the Wolfpack to feast on!

Feature Match Previews

UFC 200: Lesnar v Hunt Sun 9:00am
The wait is over, and UFC 200 is here. The most anticipated event in UFC history features one of the most stacked card ever assembled, now headlined by the return WWE phenom Brock Lesnar as he takes on knock-out artist Mark Hunt. UFC 200 features two UFC title fights, seven current or former UFC Champions, and 16 fighters that have headlined a UFC event. For the MMA tragic it doesn’t get any better than this, and for the masses, with Lesnar and the Australian-based Hunt facing off.  This is one for the fans. At his height, Brock Lesnar was the biggest force in the UFC. He won the heavyweight title in his third fight with the promotion, and holds the record for the biggest selling Pay Per View in UFC history. Despite not fighting since 2011, his return has everyone buzzing, and his opponent, Mark Hunt, will be looking to make Brock’s return as short lived as possible. Hunt has arguably the best one punch power in the UFC, and has created a cult following with his ‘Walk Off’ Knock Out (landing a punch and walking away knowing that his opponent won’t be getting back up). Although Lesnar has more ring rust, his wrestling is a huge strength, and if he can get Hunt down to the canvas, look to him to dominate proceedings.
Predicted Winner: Brock Lesnar ($2.35)
Method of Victory: Lesnar KO ($3.75) in Round 2 ($8)

Super Rugby: Waratahs v Hurricanes – Sat 7:45pm
Conference leads and finals oblivion are among the rewards and consequences for both teams in this Saturday night blockbuster. The 8-5 Waratahs have won six of their last seven, including a 45-25 thumping of the Chiefs before the international break and a 57-12 defeat of the Sunwolves last week. They are tied for spot in the Australian Conference with the Brumbies. The Waratahs are ranked sixth in attack and fourth in defence. The Hurricanes notched hard-fought wins over the Highlanders and Blues at home either side of the Test rugby break. The Hurricanes are third in the NZ Conference but are just two points off the lead. They are ranked third in attack and seventh in defence. Both teams come into this encounter in good form, desperate and with a finals mentality. The Hurricanes haven’t played away from Wellington in two months, which hands the edge to the Waratahs, but this game should go down to the wire. Lean towards the ’Tahs, but the 1-12 margin options for both sides are looking attractive.
Best Bet: Waratahs WIN ($1.80)
Value Bet: Waratahs by 1-5 ($4.00)

AFL: West Coast v Nth Melbourne
The loser of this match is effectively consigned to missing out on a top four finish. If the Eagles are going to be a serious player this season, it has to start now by claiming the scalp of a fellow top eight rival for the first time this year. They are at home against a team that has been struggling to match it with the best as they battle injuries and form. North do play the ground well enough though, and player-for-player match-up soundly against the Eagles across the ground, but West Coast’s record at home is too strong to resist, particularly given they cover the line every time they win, which makes this particular points spread very attainable. Todd Goldstein, if he’s no longer carrying an injury, is the player that could win North the game with no Nic Naitanui in the opposition. Eagles will have a bit too much class.
Best Bet: West Coast -19.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Over 177.5 points ($1.88)

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