The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – July 7
The Wolf returns with his best bets across all sporting codes for this weekend. His bolter saluted at $5.50 last week with the Sharks handing the Roosters a hiding. Let’s see who he is backing this weekend…
NRL: Under 41.5 points @ $1.90 (Canterbury v Newcastle) – Sun 4:00pm
The Wolf is trying to figure out how this total is set anywhere near 40 points! The Bulldogs and Knights are the two worst attacking teams in the NRL. Canterbury have a 13-3 Under record this season and are averaging a league worst 13.75 points per game. The Knights aren’t much better scoring just over 14 points per game on the road in 2017. 5 of their last 6 encounters have tallied 38 or fewer, the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 at Belmore and the Under is 7-1 in the Dogs last 8 day games. The Wolf cannot see how they reach the total in this one.
AFL: Under 166.5 points @ $1.88 (St Kilda v Richmond) – Sat 7:25pm)
Love the under in this game. Richmond have been a remarkable under team all season going under the total in 12 of their 14 games. The Tigers are a huge under team off a good defensive performance and the under has an almost perfect strike rate when they play at night in Melbourne. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 night matches in Melbourne and 6-2 Under in last 8 under lights at Etihad. The Saints can get into the grind as well so the under seems a good thing here.
Rugby Union: New Zealand -11.5 @ $1.90 (v British Lions)
After all the hype, the stage is now set for an epic decider in Auckland on Saturday evening. The All Blacks shape up for their biggest game since the World Cup final and expect fireworks at Eden Park because they will be out for revenge. The All Blacks have not lost at Eden Park for 23 years. Since their loss to France in 1994, the All Blacks have gone unbeaten for 39 straight Test matches and it has been 6 years since the All Blacks have lost back to back Test Matches. The Lions won’t shy away from this one, but with 15 players on the field, The Wolf feels New Zealand will show why they are the best team in world sport.
NRL: Penrith WIN @ $1.91 (v Manly) – Sat 5:30pm
Just like the Sharks last week The Wolf is expecting a big bounce-back performance by the Panthers and the unavailability of Jake Trbojevic leaves a big hole in the Sea Eagles pack. The move of Peachey to the starting side looks a good one and it’s impossible to ignore the Panthers dominant record over the Sea Eagles in recent times. The Panthers have won four straight and six of their last seven against the side from the northern beaches and have scored at least 22 points in six of the last seven meetings. At the foot of the mountain it will be the Panthers that grab an all important two competition points.
Wimbledon: Gulbis WIN @ $10.00 (v Djokovic) – Sat 10:00pm
The Wolf says he could be getting this one all wrong but cannot ignore what he has seen with his eyes. Everyone has been quick to say that Djokovic is back to his best but The Wolf couldn’t disagree more. His title winning run in Eastbourne against inferior competition has disguised the fact that he is far from back to his best. Klizan rolled over and retired in his opening round match while Pavlasek could barely make a 1st serve. Then we have the fact that Ernests Gulbis was incredible in a straight sets win over Del Potro. He plays the tennis of a man that is worthy of being in the top 10 and it is his massive serve which gives him a puncher’s chance. He thundered down 25 aces in three sets and has won in excess of 80% of points on his first serve. He will prevent Djokovic from getting into a rhythm and will go for it on return. To many this would be a shock result but not The Wolf.
Yoel Romero v Robert Whittaker
This is a history making fight for Australia! Robert Whittaker will become the first Aussie to contend for a UFC belt but The Wolf says we have to think with our heads in this one. Romero won Olympic silver in Sydney and has gone on to have an incredible professional career. He has just the one loss in the UFC and is on a 8 fight win streak. Wins over Machida, Jacare and Weidman have affirmed his position as the number one contender for the interim title made available due to the injury sustained by Bisping. Likewise, Whittaker has also earned his stripes after dropping down from the welterweight division. He is undefeated as a middleweight in the UFC and in what is almost a rarity these days he brings a karate/Muay Thai background to the table. He has a unique striking style and amazing timing but The Wolf cannot look past the strength of Romero. He has passed bigger tests and Wolfy can only see him losing on the back of fatigue. Whittaker will look to contain him for the opening two rounds before finishing strong but Romero fights simply do not go to the judges scorecards. It would be nice to see Whittaker claim UFC gold but The Wolf says Romero will be too strong.
Best: Romero WIN ($2.00)
Value: Under 1.5 round ($2.50)
AFL: West Coast v Port Adelaide – Sun 4:40pm
Seventh-placed West Coast meets fifth-placed Port Adelaide in one of the most compelling Round 16 affairs. West Coast are seventh on the ladder with an 8-6 record. They rank ninth in scoring and eighth in defence. The Eagles have won just two of their last six but enter this off a surprise win over the Western Bulldogs in Melbourne. Four of the last five West Coast games have been decided by a single digit margin. Port have dropped to fifth on the ladder following their home loss to Richmond. They have an 8-6 record but rank top defensively and second in scoring. The Power have lost two straight just once this year. The Power have conceded more than 81 points in just one of their last seven matches. The best play in this compelling affair is the over. West Coast are a huge over team in day games and Port are a big over team as a small interstate outsider. Both of these teams are strong defensively but it wouldn’t surprise if this one opened up.
Over 173.5 points ($1.88)
Prop: Sam Mitchell 30+ Disposals ($2.10)