The Wolf’s Sporting Guide

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The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – July 29

Wolf’s Best

NRL: Gold Coast Titans +6.5 @ $1.91 (v Cronulla) – Mon 7pm)
Cronulla’s pursuit of immortality continues on the Gold Coast on Monday as they search for an incredible 16 straight victories against a Titans team trying valiantly to hold onto a Top 8 spot. The Titans have been kind to the Wolfpack all season long and it is no surprise to see that they are an NRL best 13-5 ATS. The have covered their last three and are 5-3 ATS this season against top 8 teams. The Titans have covered 7 of their last 8 as a home underdog of 6 or more and it gets even better with home underdogs of 6 or more off a win of 20-plus going 7-2 ATS since 2008. All the numbers stack up big for the Gold Coast here making them the bet of the week. This Titans team is tough, honest and resilient and can cause a monumental upset here.

Code Bets

AFL: Melbourne -33.5 @ $1.91 (v Gold Coast) Sun 1:10pm
Melbourne threw away victory last week, and will be keen not to do so against easier opposition here. Melbourne have covered the line three of their last four matches and their record at the MCG this season is impressive with a +14% POT and a 78% win rate at the line. The Suns on the other hand are dreadful away from home. They have won just 1 of their last 20 interstate matches and although they have been gallant under a heavy injury list in the last month, most of those matches have been in the comfort of Metricon Stadium. Now they hit the road, where they have a poor record, and face a hungry Melbourne at their favoured MCG. The Demons are coming off a loss that will have stung and that should motivate them even more for this clash. They will be looking to make this a free-flowing affair, banking on their deeper midfield and ability to use the space of the MCG to best effect for their forward-line to capitalize. The Dees to post a comfortable win.

UFC 201: Lawler WIN @ $1.60 (v Woodley) – Sun 12:05pm
Woodley is going to come out very hard in the first two rounds and look for the early victory. He has knockout power and is very strong in the wrestling game but there will be plenty of concern from his corner if he fails to take Lawler down early. If he can’t get the job done in the opening rounds things could go south for him very quickly. Lawler has just as much power and won’t mind going hard early. His track-record of getting stronger as the fight progresses have The Wolf excited. He with withstand the early attacks from Woodley and use all the experience he has gained throughout his 37 fight career to do so. Lawler is an astute tactician in the octagon and will eventually make light work of a fading Woodley. Lawler by KO.

Super Rugby: Hurricanes 1-12 @ $2.60 (v Chiefs)
It’s a mouth-watering North Island derby for the first spot in the decider, with both teams sweating on the fitness of key players ahead of what shapes as one of the great Super Rugby semis. The Hurricanes have won 14 and the Chiefs 12 of 27 previous clashes, with one match drawn. The ’Canes lead the count 9-5 at home, but the Chiefs scored a controversial one-point win in Wellington earlier this season. The Hurricanes are 15-3 at home since the start of 2015 and are coming off a scintillating 41-0 quarter final rout of the Sharks in atrocious Wellington conditions. Seven of the teams’ last eight games have been decided by 1-12 margins and with both teams at their peak of their powers there will not be much separating them. The Hurricanes have been our bread and butter all season long and The Wolf says to stick with them.

Wolf’s Bolter

NRL: Eels WIN @ $2.85 (v Tigers) – Sat 5:30pm
There could be an upset brewing in this one with the Parramatta plus the best bet of the match. The Eels despite their predicament have not given up all year and their resilience should hold them in good stead against a fairly fragile Tigers team. The Tigers got the job done against the Dragons but only just despite the final scoreline. The Tigers are totally unreliable as a big favourite while home underdogs getting big starts are always a play at the backend of the season. Home underdogs of 6.5 or more R20-26 since 2011 are 45-30 ATS while home underdogs of 8-plus cover at a rate of 68%. That highlights a significant statistical push and with the Tigers having covered just 1 of their last 5 when favoured by more than a converted try the Eels are in with a big shout for an outright win.

Wolf’s Multi 

Combined Odds $7.50
NRL: Storm -1.5 (v Cowboys) | AFL: Port Adelaide -34.5 (v Brisbane)  | Super Rugby: Highlanders WIN (v Lions)
It’s a footy frenzy this weekend and The Wolf is going across the NRL, AFL and Super Rugby.

Feature Match Previews

AFL: Kangaroos v Saints – Sat 7:25pm
It may be Boomer’s 427th bu the Saints are in with a big shout of spoiling the party. The Kangaroos were able to fend off one challenger for their 8th spot last week and now face another. St Kilda have won seven of their last nine matches not to mention 7 straight at Etihad. They have also won a league best six matches as an underdog this season and could well make it seven. Their pressure and speed is a trademark, turning the ball over and moving it quickly to an open and functioning forward-line. North don’t lack for toughness, but do for foot-pace, which may get exposed on the counter. The Roos were finally able to hit the scoreboard last week, while the Saints have been able to keep teams under control and will fancy themselves again. It would be understandable for North to be very slight favourites, but the odds look too skewed towards them based on early season form, rather than events of recent times.
Best Bet: St Kilda +11.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: St Kilda WIN ($2.45)
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.00)

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