The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – July 21
The Wolf returns with his best bets across all sporting codes for this weekend. He says the points will dry up for the Sharkies this week and is rubbing his palms in excitement for both the men’s and women’s finals at Wimbledon…
NRL: Under 41.5 points @ $1.90 (Canberra v Melbourne) – Sat 5:30pm
The Raiders got out of jail in golden point against the Dragons last week, but they’ll need more than luck if they’re to topple the competition front-runners here. None of the last three matches between these two have topped 30 points and the Storm are 11-6 coming off the bye. The Storm have the best defence in the competition conceding an average of just 16 points per game and the Raiders have not scored more than 20 in their last 5 games. With all of their Origin players back on deck look for the Storm to really tighten things up defensively. The Raiders have lacked the spark of last season and The Wolf cannot see them scoring more than 2 or 3 tries.
AFL: North Melbourne +30.5 @$1.91 (v Essendon) – Sat 1:45pm
North Melbourne are five-chip specials here and if there was a sixth chip, we’d throw that in the middle too. North have embarrassed the Bombers in their last three meetings and they rarely miss a cover as a big outsider in Melbourne. The Bombers have a horrific record as a favourite at Etihad going 7-18 ATS while North are 11-3 ATS in Melbourne when getting more than 3 goals start since 2012. North should not only cover, they should win this off the stick.
Super Rugby: Lions -14.5 @ $1.90 (v Sharks) – Sat 10:30pm
The Sharks weren’t able to upset the table-topping Lions last weekend and they now travel to Johannesburg looking to turn the tables on the minor premiers. The Sharks have scored just 12 points in their last three Finals fixtures away from home, including a tally of zero when they travelled to Wellington in last season’s quarter-finals. It’s a telling stat and the Wolf expects the Lions to be relentless at home. With the Sharks unable to impress on their own turf last week look for them to capitulate late on.
Soccer: Juventus Over 1.5 goals @ $2.45 (v Barcelona)
Barca have been historically poor at this tournament. We saw them lose 4-0 to Liverpool last year and they have won just 2 of their last 6. The scorelines reflect that they clearly take the foot of the pedal defensively. They have conceded multiple goals in 4 of their last 5 ICC matches with 4 or more total goals in each of those games. We will see both teams find the net with regularity.
NRL: St George Illawarra 1-12 @ $3.40 (v Manly) – Sun 2:00pm
The Dragons should have arguably won in Canberra last week and will be looking to make amends when they host the Sea Eagles in Wollongong on Sunday. The Wolf is keen on the Dragons as outsiders here and rates them as massive value. They smashed the Sea Eagles earlier in the season and the loss of Koroisau is a massive blow to their chances here. The Dragons have won the last meetings between the two sides in Wollongong and really struggled to hit their straps against the hapless Tigers last week. Take the Dragons with the start and to win by 1-12 points.
AFL: Collingwood v West Coast – Sun 3:20pm
Collingwood’s fading final hopes rely on a win here against an eighth-placed West Coast clinging to a Top 8 berth. Collingwood bounced back with a much-needed win against the Suns on the Gold Coast last week, ending a four-game losing streak. West Coast have won three of their last five games and enter this off a dominant 74-44 Derby win but have not put back-to-back wins together since Round 8. The under is a bet again in this clash. There are some good angles at play here for the under and almost no good angles for either side. The under hits at 70% when West Coast are a small interstate favourite and has hit in 8 of their last 11 at Etihad while Collingwood are 11-5 under at Etihad. These two also have a history of low-scoring matches.
Best: Under 184.5 points ($1.88)
Prop: Andrew Gaff 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.90)
Soccer: PSG v Tottenham – Sun 10:00am
Spurs finished with the best attack and best defence in the EPL last season and a full two months off has provided the squad with much needed rest. PSG opened their ICC campaign with a shootout win over Roma in a game that produced very few chances. PSG have been the standout team in this tournament in recent years. They have lost just 1 of 8 matches and that came via penalties. Wins over Man Utd, Inter, Leicester and Real Madrid has seen them lift this trophy each of the last two years. With Spurs having their first run of the season The Wolf is predicting PSG’s winning ways to continue.
Best: PSG WIN ($1.90)
Value: HT/FT – PG/PSG ($3.10)