The Wolf’s Sporting Guide

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The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – July 15

Wolf’s Best

NRL: Broncos -6 @ $1.90 (v Rabbitohs) – Sat 7:30pm
Two teams dreadfully out of form, South Sydney and Brisbane find themselves in a must-win situation when they meet at ANZ. Brisbane have won the last two meetings convincingly. The teams met in Sydney in Round 25 last year with the Broncos winning 47-12 before winning 30-8 in Brisbane in Round 8. The teams have typically played high-scoring matches with the last seven all topping 38 points. Brisbane have covered 4 of their last 6 on a rest of 11-plus days and 8 of their last 10 off two straight losses. Brisbane should start to settle down now the Origin period has come to a close and if they are remotely back in form they will embarrass South Sydney. The Rabbitohs are an utter mess at the moment and Brisbane have the talent and capability to run in a huge score here. There are some angles supporting the Broncos here and betting against Souths has been profitable all year.

Code Bets

AFL: 4th Quarter GWS Giants -14.5 @ $1.87 (v Lions)
GWS should bounce back from an unexpected loss with an easy kill. Brisbane have lost 11 in a row since their Round 4 defeat of Gold Coast while the Giants look to reclaim the form that saw them thump the Swans. GWS will learn a big lesson from last week and they will not be letting an early lead slip. They have generally been clinical in the 4th quarter of their matches this season and the time has come for them to knuckle down and make a push for a top 4 finish. With the Swans losing to the Hawks a win is likely to put them in the top 4. Percentages will be key in terms of finishing positions and the Giants will really kick on in the final term – putting a score on the Lions!

NRL: Over 48.5 points @ $1.90 (Knights v Storm) – Sun 2:00pm
The wooden spoon Newcastle host one of the title favourites in Melbourne and will need some kind of home ground push to remain even vaguely competitive against one of the form teams of the competition. The over is 9-1 since 2008 when a road team is favoured by 16.5 or more with the favourite covering four of the last six. The Storm are 9-5 ATS when laying 16.5 or more since 2008, covering three of their last four. There is a huge statistical push for the over. The best bet is the over. Even though the total is high the over has a huge salute rate when a road team is favoured by 16.5 or more, hitting at a rate of 90%.

Super Rugby: Brumbies -20.5 @ $1.90 (v Force)
The Brumbies only need to hold their nerve against the struggling Force to seal the Australian Conference title and progress into next week’s playoffs. The Brumbies hold a 9-4-1 lead in 14 previous clashes with the Force, while the Canberra outfit has suffered just one loss in their last 10 meetings with the Perth side. The Brumbies are 4-2 against the Force at home, and downed the Force 31-14 in Perth in Round 3. The Brumbies will know the equation for them to clinch a finals berth after the Waratahs take on the Blues on Friday, but it’s hard to see them not cruising to a bonus-point win here regardless of what’s required. The Force just can’t score points against quality defences, and they’re being comprehensively outmuscled in the pack. Back the Brumbies against the points start with confidence.

Wolf’s Bolter

NRL: Sharks 13+ @ $2.75 (v Roosters) – Mon 7:00pm
The Sydney Roosters’ attempts to kick-start their season will not get any easier when they tackle a red-hot Cronulla team chasing history after 13 straight wins. The Roosters have lost four straight and six of their last seven. Against Top 6 teams they are 0-5 with three double digit losses.It is surprising Cronulla are as long as they are considering the state of the Roosters at present and the form of the Sharks. Home teams who post points and lose the week prior are typically terrible bets. Favourites are also very much the way to play at this time of year. The Sharks are on a roll and can pile on the points in this one.

Wolf’s Multi 

Combined Odds $7.00
NRL: Over 39.5 points (Eagles v Warriors) | AFL: Kangaroos WIN (v Power)  | Super Rugby: Highlanders 1-12 (v Chiefs)
The multi came up one leg short last week but The Wolf says we will bounce back!

Feature Match Previews

AFL: Crows v Magpies – Sat 7:40pm
The second biggest match of the round as it turns out, with both sides on winning runs. Adelaide are on a seven game winning streak, undefeated since Round 8. Significant victims have been GWS, West Coast in Perth, North, and Melbourne at the MCG. They’ve scored over 100 in each of these wins. Collingwood have won three in a row since their bye, as they’ve welcomed back some senior players. They dominated Fremantle from the outset in Round 14, won ugly against Carlton in Round 15, and then trounced GWS after quarter time last week. Adelaide are the undisputed form side of the competition, but Collingwood loom as a danger side for any finals bound team in the run to September. The Crows have made an art-form of opening up their forward-line and strolling into easy goals, which has been a weakness of the Pies at times this year. Adelaide should still win, but it might be closer than some think.
Best Bet: Adelaide 1-39 ($2.35)
Other Bet: Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.60)

Tour de France Stage 13 – Fri 5:45pm
The first of 2 ITTs in this year’s race, Stage 13 will be an hour of pain for the riders that are going full pelt for the full 37.5km trying to put time into their rivals.  There is an uphill start to the stage and a nasty kick towards the finish.  It looks to be a very technical parcours, with a number of switchbacks on the first descent.  This will disadvantage riders like Tony Martin, who are used to punching out a big cadence and sticking to that.  Riders will need to be able to adjust their rhythm based on the course in front of them and we should see a good spectacle with lots of action. Back in 2012, Bradley Wiggins won a similar style of TT by 34 seconds and the likes of Froome will be hoping for the same result today.  TT time gaps can be more decisive on the race result than some mountain stages these days so expect to see a very definite final podum picture at the end of the day. Dumoulin is the man to beat.
Best Bet: Dumoulin WIN ($1.80)
Value Bet: Porte ($17)

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