The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – March 24
Welcome back footy season! For the first time this year we will have AFL, NRL and Super Rugby on all weekend long. The Wolf has stacked his sporting guide with specials from all codes.
NRL: Gold Coast +3.5 @ $1.90 (v Nth Queensland) – Sat 9pm
The Wolf saw enough weaknesses in the Cowboys pack last week to think that the Titans can get the job done here. Taumalolo’s suspension is a massive blow to the Cowboys and the Titans have one of the more underrated packs in the competition. Ash Taylor is on fire and the absence of Jarryd Hayne doesn’t seem to have had an impact. The Titans have won their last 3 at home against the Cows and have covered 16 of their last 25 as a home underdog. We have turned a heap of profit backing home underdogs thus far and will continue to do so with home underdogs covering the start 66% of the time in the opening four rounds. Like Manly last week the Titans will go right through the middle of North Queensland.
AFL: West Coast -17.5 @ $1.91 (v Nth Melbourne) – Sun 1:10pm
North will be looking to see how its young brigade can hold up against a West Coast side packed with talent. Brad Scott has a tough task on his hands as many experts are tipping North Melbourne to fall out of the 8 in 2017. West Coast have been criticised for their performances away from home since entering the competition. If recent history is anything to go by they could be on track to turn that around in season 2017. Their last two interstate trips they defeated the Giants in Sydney and the Crows in Adelaide. On both occasions they were paying over $4 to win the match. This task at Etihad looks a lot easier than those matchups and they will be too good for the Roos here.
A-League: Over 3.5 goals @ $2.60 (Wellington v Newcastle) – Sun 5:00pm
When these two meet it is always entertainment plus! There have been 3 or more goals in 9 of the last 10 meetings with a total of 41 goals in that stretch. That’s 4.1 goals per game and who will be hard pressed to find more goal in a 10 game span between any two teams in world football. Defensivley, the Phoenix have been like the Grand Canyon over the last month. They have conceded 3 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 matches and the Jets haven’t been much better. City but 4 past them last week in a clinic and The Wolf cannot see either side closing down their opposing attackers. This one will be all about the wingers. Hoole and Nabbout for the Jets with Krishna and Barbarouses for the Nix. The matchup is tailor made for them to put on a show. If you want to see goals, this is the must watch game of the round.
Super Rugby: Sharks WIN @ $1.70 (v Cheetahs)
Sharks coach Franco Smith has named all his available Spring Boks after opting to rest the majority of them last week, Tendai Mtawarira and Coenie Oosthuizen will add serious beef to the Sharks front row whilst Lawazi Mvovo returns out wide. The Sharks have won 8 of their last 11 games against the Cheetahs and will improve that record further. The Skharks made it three in a row when they scraped past the Kings last week and in a battle of mammoth forward packs The Wolf says they will have too much class for the Cheetahs.
A-League: HT/FT – Central Coast/Central Coast ($4.20) – Sat 5:35pm
They occupy the bottom two spots of the A-League ladder and have clearly been the worst two sides this season. The Mariners had a sniff of finals football when they won 3 in a row but have since received a reality check with just one point from their last 4 games. Meanwhile Adelaide won a spiteful affair against the Roar but will be without Carrusca who was sent for a second bookable offence. The Mariners have a chance to to the triple on Adelaide for the second time in 5 seasons. They won all 3 clashes against the Reds in the 2012/13 season and following back to back 2-1 win this year have the opportunity to replicate that feat. For a side that has been cemented to the bottom part of the ladder the last few season, the Mariners have consistently been able to find joy against Adelaide. They have scored in 7 straight meetings against them and there has not been a draw between the pair in the last 15 meetings. The Mariners showed plenty of fight against City and Sydney FC and with a two week break since their last game they will come out with plenty of intent. Mariners!
NRL: Wests Tigers v Melbourne – Sun 4:00pm
It’s been a turbulent week in Tigertown, with the shock sacking of Jason Taylor just three rounds into the season. The Tigers are coming off a 46-6 thrashing at the hands of the Raiders and it will be up to the players to respond at Leichhardt Oval on Sunday. Meanwhile, the well-oiled machine that is the Storm continues to grind out wins and remains unbeaten after three rounds. Cameron Munster and Suliasi Vunivalu will both miss the clash due to injury. The Storm have won 5 of the last 7 matches against the Tigers and won last year’s clash at Leichhardt Oval by 1 point. There will be plenty of emotion at Leichhardt Oval on Sunday, but Storm coach Craig Bellamy is a master at keeping his side focussed on the job at hand. The Tigers will be spirited, but the Storm have the runs on the board. The Tigers will lift for this one, but you can’t bet against the clinical Storm straight up. However, the Tigers getting +6 looks a good play.
Best Bet: Wests +6 ($1.90)
Other: Under 42.5 ($1.90)
AFL: Adelaide v GWS – Sun 3:20pm
It’s the year of no excuses for the Giants as they embark on a quest to win their franchise’s first Premiership flag. With a talented and young spine consisting of Davis, Haynes, Ward, Patton and Cameron there is only upside in their 2017 output. Adelaide will be looking to maintain their fortress at Adelaide Oval after going 9-2 at home last season. The task won’t get any tougher than the premiership favourites GWS Giants in round 1. With question marks over the fitness of a few of their senior midfielders and skipper Taylor Walker, the Crows look vulnerable. The Giants got through the JLT Series unscathed until the final match where they lost midfielder Stephen Coniglio with an ankle injury. With a list that arguably has the most talent in the AFL, the Giants can cover the loss of a midfielder better than most. To win here they need to beat Adelaide for the first time in their short history, and the Wolf thinks they can do it.
Best: GWS WIN ($1.60)
Prop: Shiel 30+ Disposals ($2.50)