The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – December 1
The Rugby League World Cup Final headlines the weekend of sport but it doesn’t stop there… A-League, EPL, NFL and much much more.
EPL: Over 2.5 goals @ $1.70 (Liverpool v Brighton) – Sun 2:00am
Jurgen Klopp put faith in his squad in the trip to Stoke and they repaid the faith in a comfortable win. Mignolet was lucky not to be sent in the first half while Salah came on late to bag a brace. He now has 17 goals across all competitions this season and his return to the starting lineup will send shivers through the Brighton defence. Henderson, Coutinho and Salah will all get the start with Milner also likely to benefit from the rotation. Klopp will be fully aware that Brighton are undefeated in their last 6 EPL fixtures at home with Man City the only side to claim all 3 points from their trip to East Sussex. Brighton’s defence has been the key to picking up points at home but The Wolf cannot see them holding out Liverpool. The Reds have scored 3 or more goals in 6 of their last 7 games across all competitions with the Over 8-1 in their last 9. This one has goals written all over it. Brighton have found the back of the net in 5 of their last 6 home games while Liverpool have just 1 clean sheet on the road in the league. In fact, Liverpool have conceded 16 goals away from Anfield this season – only the Hammers have allowed more on the road. We have seen the Over go 6-1 in their away games as a result with 5 of the 7 games producing at least 5 goals! The Wolf is rolling out all 5 chips for the Overs!!!
RLWC: Under 40.5 points @ $1.90 (v England) – Sat 8:00pm
The Kangaroos have cruised through the tournament with minimal fuss, reflected by the fact that they’ve conceded just 16 points across their five games to date. England had some nervous moments against Tonga in their semi-final. They ran out to a 20-0 lead before falling across the line by 20-18 to book their spot in the final against Australia. Gareth Widdop’s move to fullback has been a revelation for England, with the St George-Illawarra star scoring a try and setting up two others in the narrow win over Tonga. The Australian brick wall defence will prove a tougher nut to crack. The Kangaroos beat England 18-4 in the World Cup opener and have now won 12-straight against England dating back to 1995. The loss of Hodgson is a massive blow for England and it’s impossible to ignore that Australia has conceded an average of 3 points per game at this World Cup, and has been completely dominant over England. The Wolf is expecting a similar result to the 18-4 victory in the group stage making the Unders his best best.
A-League: Newcastle WIN @ $2.40 (v Melbourne City) – Sat 7:50pm
The Jets juggernaut continues and they deserve everything that comes their way. They have been spectacular in attack with 20 goals through 8 rounds – just shy of the all time record to start the season. Petratos and Nabbout continue to provide defenders with nightmares with Gerogevski’s overlapping runs another feature. They have great balance with Kantarovski and Ugarkovic putting in the hard work in midfield while the duo of Topor-Stanley and Boogaard provide plenty of experience. The Wolf cannot see how City slow down a rampant Jets outfit. The Melburnians have conceded 3 times in each of their last two outings and have collected just a single point from their last 4 league matches. They will also be without energetic ball winner Malik in midfield leaving a gaping hole – one which the Jets will exploit. The Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings and that will play right into the hands of the Jets. If you are not a believer of the Jets you will be after this week.
NFL: New England -8 @ $1.91 (v Buffalo) – Mon 5:00am
The Bills will be high on confidence after their 16-10 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead in Week 12. They’ll need more than 16 points if they’re to challenge Tom Brady and the Patriots when they come to town. The Patriots have won 24 of the last 27 meetings against the Bills and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against the Bills in Buffalo. Bills QB Tyrod Taylor was good against the Chiefs, but he lacks the weapons on offence when his main targets are Zay Jones and Jordan Matthews. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is a master of taking away the opposition’s top weapon and The Wolf is expecting a quiet game from LeSean McCoy, hurting the Bills chance here. It’s never wise to bet against Brady and the Pats offence.
EPL: Teams To Score – Arsenal Only ($4.25) – Sun 4:30am
The Gunners ran riot at home to Huddersfield in what was their best performance of the season. Sanchez, Ozil and Lacazette all got in on the act while the combination of Ramsey and Xhaka in midfield is really starting to gel. Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 in the league including 12 straight at home dating back to last season. Their 9 clean sheets in that stretch is the most impressive stat and The Wolf strongly believes that they can add to it. Two screamers from Ashley Young completely changed the complexion of United’s match at Watford and the reality is that they had scored just 1 goal in their last 3 away league games prior to that match. Mourinho’s tatics away to top sides have been crystal clear. A clean sheet is priority one and he is more than happy to walk away with a draw. In their last 8 games away to either Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal they have lost 6 and drawn two. What is even more alarming is the fact that they have found the back of the net just once! Arsenal have held United scoreless in 3 of the last 4 meetings at The Emirates and The Wolf says Mourinho’s defensive mentality will cost his side dearly.
Ashes 2nd Test – Sat 2:30pm
The Wolf can see England bouncing back in the 2nd Test, despite the bowlers on both sides sure to have plenty of success with a swinging pink ball. There’s no question that all of the pressure is on England, but The Wolf is expecting England to embrace the back-against-the-wall mentality. It’s crucial that England win all of the key moments, which ultimately proved the difference at The Gabba. James Anderson and Stuart Broad will be extremely dangerous in these conditions, while Chris Woakes proved in the warm-up match against the CA XI that he could be threatening here too. Cook and Root both had success against the pink ball in their recent Test against the Windies making it impossible to ignore the $3.60 on offer for England.
Best: England WIN ($3.60)
Value: England 1st Innings Top Bowler – James Anderson ($3.20)
UFC 218: Halloway v Aldo II – Sun 3:30pm
The Main event of UFC 218 was originally scheduled to be a bout between Holloway and Edgar, before Frankie Edgar withdrew due to injury. Thankfully for UFC fans former champion Jose Aldo has stepped up to the plate in an effort to try and regain the UFC title he has held twice before. Bad news for Jose is Holloway beat the brakes of him back in June at UFC 212, finishing it in the 3rd round. Since then, “the Bless” era has begun and Hawaii have a UFC champion once more. Before his victory in June Holloway went on a tear in the featherweight division winning 10 fights in a row. He currently has the 5th longest fight streak in UFC history with 11. The Hawaiian has already cemented himself as one of the most unorthodox and well-rounded fighters inside the octagon, possessing excellent and diverse striking skill with a tight grappling game. His victories over Anthony Pettis and Cub Swanson are prime examples of this as Holloway likes to dominate his opponent on the feet and continue it to the ground where he wraps it all up. He will be looking to do the same in this one and the Wolf is struggling to see a situation where that isn’t the case. The Wolf is predicting a UFC 212 repeat with Holloway to win by stoppage in round 3 or 4.
Best: Holloway WIN ($1.32)
Value: Holloway By KO ($2.10)