The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – August 19
Get The Wolf’s best bets across all codes this weekend including the NRL, AFL, EPL and a stack of specials from the Rio Olympics.
NRL: South Sydney +7.5 @ $1.91 (v Cronulla) – Mon 7:00pm
Souths have found a little bit of form over the last few weeks and will be hoping to cause another shock against a Cronulla team still in the fight for the minor premiership. Souths have covered their last two while the Sharks have failed to cover their last three with things definitely getting shaky in the Shire. The home underdog play lines up again for this one. Home underdogs in the final seven rounds of the season getting a start of 6.5 or more are 35-18 ATS. What is even more impressive is the fact that home underdogs of 6.5 or more off a win of 20-plus are 8-1 ATS since 2009 while off a double digit win are 21-7 ATS. There is some doubt that Adam Reynolds may not play but if he does this is as close to a 5 chipper as it gets.
AFL: Melbourne -22.5 @ $1.91 (v Carlton) – Sun 1:10pm
Carlton would love to find a win before season’s end, but Melbourne are finishing the season hard. Carlton have now lost nine in a row and they were extremely poor against Brisbane last week. Melbourne on the other hand have won three in a row for the first time in a decade, just reward for four weeks of good form which kicked off with a six point loss to West Coast in Perth. Since then, they’ve beaten Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Port. Melbourne are in about the hottest form they’ve been for ten years, and the question now is how long they can sustain it. If they can, Carlton, well below their best in the last two weeks, are there for the taking. Melbourne are a much better side than Carlton, in much better form, and have the Blues covered in every part of the ground.
EPL: Double Chance Watford or Draw @ $1.95 (v Chelsea) – Sun 12:00am
Chelsea were far from impressive in a 2-1 win over the Hammers and they looked more than just scrappy at the back. They lacked cohesion in attack and what concerned The Wolf more was their lack of composure at the back – something that will have to be their strength if they are to succeed under Conte. To those who don’t know any better the $1.75 about Chelsea looks value. The Wolf says think again and says they should be close to $2.50! Watford were very dangerous in patches against the Saints last week with Amrabat and Holebas providing very dangerous overlapping runs while combination of Deeney and Ighalo will again reap plenty of rewards in front of goal. The centre of midfield is their weakness so look for Chelsea to play through the middle third with Willian and Hazard. The teams have met three times at Vicarage Road in the Premier League with Chelsea managing just a single victory. The Wolf says we will turn a significant profit laying Chelsea on the road in the first 6-8 weeks and it will all start against Watford.
Bledisloe Cup: Wallabies +6.5 @ $1.90 (v All Blacks) – Sat 8:05pm
The Wallabies will attempt to alleviate a dismal Super Rugby campaign for Australian fans when they host the world champion All Blacks in Saturday night’s Bledisloe Cup and Rugby Championship opener. Australia have won just one of their last 13 Tests against New Zealand but the last two matches between the teams at ANZ Stadium have featured a draw and a win to the Wallabies. Five of the seven Bledisloe Tests at ANZ Stadium have been decided by eight points or less. The influx of experienced Europe-based stars should ensure significant improvement on the Wallabies’ June form. The All Blacks could be vulnerable here, with only seven starters from the World Cup final backing up; the Wallabies could line up the same as they did at Twickenham 1-15. New Zealand have found their recent trips to ANZ Stadium tricky, with the slippery conditions ill-suited to their fast-paced game-plan. Stick to the 1-12 margins on a greasy night, and lean to the hosts with the start.
NRL: Over 44.5 @ $1.90 (Canberra v Parramatta) – Sun 2:00pm
The red-hot Raiders look to continue their surge up the ladder with a big home clash against a Parramatta team that is starting to show some wear after a torrid season. Hodgson will miss out for the Raiders while Scott and Semi return for the Eels. Canberra are the form team of the premiership and since Round 11 the Raiders rank as the top attacking team by a significant margin while defensively they rate third. Canberra have now won seven straight and 10 of their last 11. Their attack is a major reason why the Over is 13-8 in their matches this season and with the overs hitting at 59% in day matches over the final seven rounds of the season since 2011 we should see this one eclipse 50.
EPL: Stoke WIN @ $5.00 (v Man City) – Sat 9:30pm
It may have taken a late own goal from Paddy Mcnair but City were able to grab all three points against Sunderland. If you though Pep wasn’t disappointed by the result, think again. In a midweek UCL qualifier against lowly Steaua Bucharest he not only started Aguero, Silva and De Bruyne – they played virtually the entire game despite being up 3-0 after 49 minutes. Aguero scored a hat-trick and should have had 5 after missing two penalties. Clearly Man City are well behind from where Guardiola wants them to be and on the short turn around Stoke poses a significant threat. Stoke have won 2 of the last 4 encounters against City and winning at The Potters home ground is never easy. This is a genuine clash of styles and Stoke will look to use their advantage in strength and height to trouble City. Stoke came out on fire when these two met here last season and the Wolf is expecting much of the same with the trio of Shaqiri, Bojan and Arnautovic to cause the newly formed City back four huge problems. Stoke are huge value!
Combined Odds $8.50
NRL: Warriors +13.5 (v Cowboys) | AFL: Gold Coast +21.5 (v Collingwood) | EPL: Arsenal WIN (v Leicester)
It’s a footy frenzy this weekend and The Wolf is going across the NRL, AFL and Super Rugby.
Feature Match Previews
UFC 202: Conor McGregor v Nate Diaz – Sun
UFC 202 is headlined by the fight that everyone wanted to see at UFC 200, ‘The Notorious’ Conor McGregor v Nate Diaz. Whilst we had to wait a little longer than expected due to a dispute over media commitments, the UFC is getting the best of both worlds. Not only did they have the stacked UFC 200 to sell to their fans, they managed to keep their biggest draw card for a fight that is sure to swell the UFC’s coffers even more. So where do we see this going? Whilst no doubting the commitment McGregor is showing to the cause, I can’t see any reason why we should expect a different result. Diaz is going to be more comfortable at the weight. He beat McGregor on short notice the first time around on little notice whilst on holidays, and a full fight camp can only help. Let’s just hope that this one lives up to the hype! Take Diaz for the outright win and win by submission.
Best: Nate Diaz WIN ($2.00)
Value: Diaz by submission ($3.50)
AFL: Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows) – Sat 7:40pm
Port are in horrendous form, while Adelaide keep marching on to what should be a top four finish. Port have been all but non-competitive over the last two rounds, going down to Melbourne by a 40 point margin that should have been 60, and Sydney by 67 points after kicking only four goals for the game. Adelaide have won three in a row and 11 of their last 12 matches. Their last three wins, over bottom three teams Essendon, Brisbane and Fremantle, have been by 82 points, 138 points and 72 points respectively. Adelaide has been arguably the most professional team in the competition this season, winning the games they have been expected to, and putting away the bad sides better than any other side. If the Crows can get a run on against the Power, they can run up another score, particularly given Port’s vulnerabilities down back, and their own forward line potency.
Best: Adelaide -35.5 ($1.91)
Other: Both Teams to Score 70 points – Yes ($1.75)