The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – August 4
The Wolf’s best in the Sporting Guide has saluted 4 weeks running and this week’s is a 5 chip special!
AFL: Under 162.5 points @ $1.88 (Richmond v Hawthorn) – Sun 3:20pm
The Kangaroos delivered in back to back weeks as a 5 chips special and The Wolf is rolling out all 5 chips yet again this week! The total on this should jump about 140 even if it is a beautiful sunny day. These two are a combined 27-9 under this year and all the angles suggest this will be a low-scoring affair, heightened by the stakes of the match. The Under has hit in 4 of the last 5 clashes and it doesn’t stop there. Richmond are 42-19 under after scoring more than 90 points while the Hawks have a 15-6 Under record as an outsider since 2012. The under can be bet with total confidence!
NRL: Canberra +5.5 @ $1.91 (v Cronulla) – Sat 7:30pm
The Raiders and in the desperation stakes and sit 4 points outside the 8 with a handful of games remaining. They’ll be boosted by the returns of suspended duo Jordan Rapana and Josh Papalii who should make the world of difference. The Raiders have won the last 3 encounters at Shark Park and Cronulla have a poor betting record at the ground covering just 10 if 27 night games there since 2014. In addition, Cronulla are 1-11 ATS at home after scoring 24 or more the week before. The upset is on the cards.
Super Rugby: Over 53.5 points @ $1.87 (Lions v Crusaders)
Then there were 2. After two blockbuster semi finals last weekend the stage is set for an instant classic with the two most impressive teams throughout season 2017 progressing to the Super Rugby Final. No team has won a Super Rugby final outside their own country since the Crusaders knocked off the Brumbies in the year 2000 with 8 of the last 11 Finals being decided by 8 or less points. This one though will be all about points on the board. These two have been scoring for fun all season long and a fast Jo’burg track will turn this into a shootout. The Lions poured it on last week with 44 points against the Hurricanes and although they won’t get as many against the Crusaders they will still be eclipsing the total with ease.
Carlton+26.5 @ $1.91 (v Essendon) – Sat 2:10pm
Get the chips into the middle because we are all-in Carlton. The Blues have a great record at the MCG and are near unbeatable as a betting proposition as a big underdog at the ground. Carlton are 20-9 ATS in day matches at the MCG, 12-6 ATS after losing by 10 goals and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Bombers. To add to that, they are 17-4 ATS at the MCG as an underdog of more than three goals. Essendon have been extremely flaky this year and are a poor bet as a big favourite at the MCG where they are 1-5 ATS since 2012 when favoured by more than 3 goals. Get right around Carlton at the line.
Athletcis: Kathryn Mitchell @ $21.00 (Women’s Javelin) – Mon 4:00am
The Wolf has marked this as one of the most open women’s field events. Spotakova won gold in Beijing and London but could manage only bronze in Rio as Kolak, 15 years her junior, set a new national record to claim victory. There was a mere 88cm separating 2nd to 7th in Rio and with 6 women throwing in excess of 65.00 this season it is wide open. Kolak’s 68.43 in Lausanne was a new PB and although Spotakova is the world record holder – her mark of 72.28m came almost a decade ago. The Wolf says to also keep a close eye on Kathryn Mitchell. She was 3rd behind the two big guns in Lausanne and set a new PB on that day. If the others get caught up in their own little battle she could set a mark in excess of 66m and take gold.
NRL: Manly v Sydney Roosters – Sun 2:00pm
The Sea Eagles will be happy to return to Brookvale this week after heavy back-to-back road losses to the Dragons and Storm respectively. The Sea Eagles have won four of the last five clashes against the Roosters. Manly won the Round 5 clash at Allianz Stadium 18-12, with Sea Eagles centre Dylan Walker crossing for a double. Four of the last six matches have topped 40 points and with clear skies forecast we should see that trend continue. Connor Watson has been a real live wire in attack and continues to improve with every game. Manly have conceded 92 points in the last two games – missing 113 tackles in the process. They will really aim up this weak but with cracks in their defensive line they will have to rely on DCE and the Trbo boys to give them plenty of spark in attack.
Best: Over 40.5 ($1.88)
Other: Manly 1-12 ($3.30)
Soccer: Chelsea v Arsenal – Sun 11:00pm
The reigning EPL champions take on the current FA Cup holders in the traditional curtain raiser for the English football season. Both sides have lost multiple matches in the preseason and against sides they were expected to beat. Chelsea have not won the Shield since 2009 while Arsenal have won 2 of the last 3. Arsenal have won 14 of 21 while Chelsea have a poor 4-7 record in their 11 Shield appearances. It makes the price on offer for Arsenal very attractive, especially with a wide open encounter predicted. There have been 3 or more goals in 6 of the last 8 with both teams scoring in 10 of the last 14. We could see a handful of goals!
Best: Over 2.5 goals ($1.66)
Value: Arsenal WIN ($3.40)