The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – August 26
Get The Wolf’s best bets across all codes this weekend including the NRL, AFL, EPL and other sporting action this weekend..
NRL: South Sydney -13.5 @ $1.91 (v Newcastle) – Sun 4:00pm
It may be old boys’ day at Newcastle but with South Sydney finding their feet with Damien Cook at hooker this could get ugly. The Bunnies have whacked the Knights by 40-plus in three straight and those scars are hard to overcome. Souths have covered three straight while the Knights have covered just 1 of their last 5. South Sydney are 2-1 with Damien Cook as the starting hooker this year with that loss a one-point defeat to Melbourne. The Bunnies are in the form we expected of them leading into the season and on form they are playing well above their position on the ladder. Reynolds played just 20 minutes and they still managed to beat the Sharks. Against the Knights they could post more than 50 points!
AFL: Western Bulldogs -20.5 @ $1.91 (v Fremantle) – Sun 4:40pm
Fremantle have stopped really giving a yelp and have lost their last four matches, against GWS, Adelaide, West Coast and Sydney, by an average margin of 75 points. They are all top eight sides, and they play another one here. The Bulldogs have won three in a row since dropping games to St Kilda and Geelong, accounting for the likes of North, Collingwood and Essendon. They continue to play a tough, no-frills brand of football, which is proving effective for them. The Bulldogs have won three from four interstate this season at +58% POT and 75% ATS. Fremantle are done for the year, and are tailing off like a side desperate for the end of the season. The Dogs are still honing their style to ensure it can win finals despite lacking personnel, and will be looking to make a statement to finish the home and away rounds. The Dogs will win comfortably, and the line looks there for the taking.
EPL: Teams To Score – Man Utd Only @ $2.10 (v Hull) – Sun 2:30am
If you didn’t think that Man Utd could win the title this season think again. Zlatan again showed his class with a double last week and his impact cannot be understated. With he and Pogba giving them a strong spine through the middle it has provided Rooney and Martial with both time and space. They were dominant against Southampton and were able to effectively shut down Tadic and Redmon – a duo which The Wolf has marked as very dangerous. Hull have collected just a single point against the Red Devils from their last 8 EPL encounters and despite winning their opening two games The Wolf cannot see United letting up in this one. United to win and keep a clean sheet.
Bledisloe Cup: New Zealand -18.5 @ $1.90 (v Wallabies) – Sat 5:30pm
The Wallabies were a rabble last week, clueless with the ball in hand while dropping off tackles at an alarming rate without it. Hit hard by injuries and with several stars struggling form, Michael Cheika has few options at his disposal to bolster a side short on confidence. The All Blacks have only had to make a few minor tweaks, and should be able to pick up where they left off in Sydney in front of a packed house in Wellington. Beauden Barret was unstoppable last week, while the ABs’ offloading and support play was first-class. Unfortunately for the Wallabies, a similar blowout looms this weekend.
NRL: Over 44.5 points @ $1.90 (Manly v Canberra) – Sat 3:05pm
Canberra’s surprising push for a Top 2 position continues at Brookvale Oval on Sunday when Manly host the Raiders on Saturday afternoon. The Manly faithful won’t be given a chance to farewell club legend Jamie Lyon whose career is over following a hamstring injury. Canberra are 13-9 ATS with a 14-8 over record. Those number are even more impressive when we look at the last 12 weeks. They have covered 9 of their last 12 and gone over in 10 of their last 12. The Wolf couldn’t be more keen on the over in this one. All the angles are pushing for a big total here with Canberra are strong over team, the over a big play when a home teams was defensively poor last start and day matches at this time of year going strong over. Stylistically it is hard not to see the Raiders’ potent right edge tearing up the Sea Eagles poor edge defence.
EPL: Over 3.5 goals @ $3.25 (Watford v Arsenal) – Sat Midnight
Arsenal are traditionally fast starters but they have hit more than a bump and although it is early in the season sitting 5 points from the top is a concern. Watford also sit on a single point but have been playing well enough to have at least won one of their matches, especially after having taken the lead in both fixtures. Deeney was their only regular starter to take part in the midweek EFL Cup loss with several names not even making it on to the team sheet. That means we will see them at full strength when they host the Gunners. The Wolf won’t stop raving on about Amrabat and Holebas and they were again heavily involved down the flanks and were able to get in behind Chelsea with ease. Arsenal did the double over Watford last season but The Hornets did knock them out of the FA Cup. All three meetings had at least three goals and with Watford playing an expansive style under Walter Mazzari we should see just as many when they meet this time around at Vicarage Road. Launch into the Overs.
Combined Odds $6.50
NRL: Roosters +4.5 (v Sharks) | AFL: Suns +16.5 (v Port Adelaide) | EPL: Over 2.5 goals (Watford v Arsenal)
It’s a footy frenzy this weekend and The Wolf is going across the NRL, AFL and Super Rugby.
Feature Match Previews
AFL: Adelaide v West Coast – Fri 8:10pm
Adelaide, coming off a fierce showdown win, take on a West Coast coming off the most bittersweet win of the season. Adelaide just keep rolling on, with four wins in a row, and 12 of their last 13. Last week saw a strong performance in a brutal showdown, where Port took it right up to the Crows, but they responded as good sides do. West Coast have hit the right notes in the last three weeks, recording a big win over Fremantle in the western derby, a last gasp victory against GWS at Spotless, and then dominating Hawthorn last week with fierce pressure. The cost was the loss of Nic Naitanui to an ACL injury. Adelaide needed a proper physical hit out after three soft wins, and they got that last week against Port, sharpening them up before this important clash. West Coast is in its best form of the season, which gives them a chance. Both of these sides are in the position of hosting a home final in week one, but the loser will forfeit that right. Adelaide should just get up due to home ground advantage, but it might be closer than many think, particularly given the record of the away team in these clashes.
Best: Adelaide Win 1-39 ($2.20)
Value: West Coast Line +24.5 ($1.91)
EPL: Tottenham v Liverpool – (Sat 9:30pm)
Last season Spurs built their success around their defence and they look set to do exactly the same this time around. The settled back four of Rose, Walker, Vertongen and Alderwireld conceded just 35 goals last year (least in EPL) and have continued where they finished having conceded just once from their opening two games. Liverpool were brought right back down to earth by losing 2-0 to Burnley in an abysmal display. As a result we saw Klopp play close to full strength in their midweek EFL Cup fixture with Coutinho and Klavan the only omissions. He also continues to persist with Milner at left back as out of form Moreno continues to warm the bench. They did manage 5 goals against Burton Albion with Sturridge coming on to score a late double. Clearly Klopp was looking to build some confidence heading into this game and the Reds are well positioned with 5 wins and 2 draws in their last 7 against Spurs. History points to a high scoring match but The Wolf disagrees. Tottenham have made it clear that defence is their priority. Liverpool are still trying to form their combinations in attack while for Spurs Harry Kane is yet to find the back of the net in the month of August. Both games ended in a stalemate last season and we will see much of the same in a hard fought draw.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($2.05)
Value: Under 2.5 goals and Draw ($4.50)