The Wolf’s Sporting Guide

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The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – August 12

Get The Wolf’s best bets across all codes this weekend including the NRL, AFL, EPL and a stack of specials from the Rio Olympics.

Wolf’s Best

NRL: St George Illawarra +11.5 @ $1.90 (v Cronulla) – Sat 7:35pm
The southern derby is a match that always has plenty of fire in it and this will be no different with the Sharks in the fight of their lives to win the minor premiership and the Saints desperately clinging to the miracle of a finals berth. Saints have covered their last two and gone under in three straight while the Sharks have failed to cover their last two. Home underdogs in the final seven rounds of the season since 2008 getting 6.5 or more are 34-17 ATS while those getting 8.5 or more are 20-11 ATS. Home underdogs in that time getting 6.5 or more off conceding 12 points or fewer are a perfect 7-0 ATS. There is a huge statistical push for the Dragon and with the return of Dugan, Thompson and Frizell the double digit start is music to our ears.

Code Bets

AFL: Adelaide -42.5 @ $1.91 (v Fremantle) – Sun 4:40pm
Adelaide are coming off 82 and 138 point wins, and are looking for another big one. Fremantle have now lost six in a row, with no real hint that a win is just around the corner. Last weeks western derby against the Eagles was a fairly lifeless affair, and the Dockers are looking to the off-season. Adelaide have won 10 of their last 11 matches, and have been in awesome form over the last fortnight against the bottom two sides, beating Brisbane by 138 points and Essendon by 82.

EPL: Tottenham WIN @ $2.35 (v Tottenham) – Sat Midnight
The pre season for of both teams has been nothing ride home about. Everton has failed to win any of their last 4 and have failed to score in over 180 minutes of football. For Spurs it has been a very similar story with losses in 4 of their last 5 friendlies, albeit against tough oppositions including Juventus and Atletico Madrid. Everton were also dealt a huge blow with Stones moving to Man City but it really came as no surprise. It has been 8 meetings since the Toffees defeated Spurs and the absence of Williams and Coleman will not help. The first 6 weeks will be crucial for Spurs if they are to replicate last season. Unlike Chelsea and both Manchester clubs they have a settled squad. They will get off to a quick start  this season and it will start at Goodison Park.

NRL: Newcastle +14 @ $1.91 (v Penrith)
Newcastle have already been consigned to the wooden spoon but with pride and some potential energy heading into the 2017 season, they will not be a cakewalk for a Penrith side well in contention for a finals berth. Newcastle showed plenty of fight at home to the Dogs last week and The Wolf is expecting much of the same. Penrith are on the short back up and have posted very few big wins this year. Just like the Dragons game the same applies here with a home underdog getting a big start. Penrith have covered just 1 of their last 4 as a road favourite while road favourites of 6.5 or more who scored 35 last start are 7-14 ATS since 2013 and 11-26 ATS since 2008. Knights at the line!

Wolf’s Bolter

Olympics: Yigrem Demelash @ $19 (Men’s 10,000m) – Sun 10.27am
The Wolf hasn’t gone this wide in his sporting guide for a while but the Olympics present huge betting opportunities and biog odds! London gold medal winner Mo Farah is short enough here in his pet event. He has not dropped a major 10km race since the 2011 World Champs but he might be a touch underdone this year. Yigrem Demelash of Ethiopia has improved sharply this year and has the best time of the season after recording a 26:51.11 in Hengelo in June. He is flying and can upset Farah. At double figure odds we have to have something on.

Wolf’s Multi 

Combined Odds $6.00
NRL: Under 38.5 points (Dragons v Sharks) | AFL: Gold Coast -26.5 (v Essendon)  | EPL: Man City -1 (v Lions)
It’s a footy frenzy this weekend and The Wolf is going across the NRL, AFL and Super Rugby.

Feature Match Previews

NRL: Canberra v Melbourne – Mon 7pm
Round 23 finishes up with the match of the round, an absolute belter between Canberra and Melbourne. There are arguably no two teams in better form than the Raiders and the Storm with massive finals implications at play here. This is an absolute belter of a match, one of the most exciting matches of the year, a true battle of styles between Canberra’s attacking flair and Melbourne’s defensive stoutness. Both teams have been great betting propositions this year but sticking with Canberra. Home underdogs off a 13-plus win cover at nearly 70% and the Storm do struggle on Mondays. Stick with the Green Machine.
Best Bet:  Canberra +2 ($1.90)
Other: Canberra ($2.10)

EPL: Arsenal v Liverpool – Mon 1:00am
Contenders or pretenders… both teams start the season sitting on the fence. The criticism of Venger’s failure to bolster his strike-force has again left fans disgruntled. Liverpool on the other hand had their first full off season with Klopp but they still look like a work in progress. They broke the shackles with a mouthwatering display against Barcelona and the 4-0 win will give them plenty of confidence. They do however have a terrible record against Arsenal. Liverpool have won just one of their last 20 away fixtures against the Gunners in all competitions while Arsenal look to continue with their opening game of the season exploits. The Gunners have lost just 2 of their last 15 season openers! The Reds will play a very different style this season and The Wolf expects them to press high up the pitch and break on the counter. This one should be a thriller and with 5 of the last 6 meetings producing at least 3 goals there could be a handful in this one.
Best: Over 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.40)