The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – August 11
The Wolf’s has multiple 5 chippers this weekend including two in the one game!!!
AFL: Collingwood +18.5 @ $1.91 (v Port Adelaide) – Sun 4:40pm
We’ll have to wait until Sunday afternoon for The Wolf’s best bet of the weekend but he says it will be worth the wait. This is a GREAT betting game to finish the round off with the Collingwood plus and the under BOTH five-chippers in the one game. We are looking at one of the great fill-ups of the season. The biggest problem with this game is the wait. Collingwood are 11-1 ATS as an interstate outsider when getting more than 2 goals start and have covered 12 of their last 15 overall interstate. There are also huge angles for the Under. Collingwood are 14-3 Under interstate off a win and 3-0 in their last 3 at Adelaide Oval.
NRL: Sydney Roosters +8 @ $1.91 (v Melbourne) – Sat 5:30pm
The Wolf can see a low-scoring, grinding affair making the Roosters +8 a five-chip special. The Roosters will be boosted by the return of Boyd Cordner and Jake Friend, and will be determined to make amends for letting a 18-4 lead slip against the Sea Eagles last week. The Roosters are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 night matches and 7-2 ATS off a loss over the last 12 months. They’ve also covered 7 of their last 11 when getting 4.5 or more points start. The Storm are the kings of the grind and that makes the start bigger than it is.
EPL: Under 2.5 goals @ $2.25 (Man Utd v West Ham) – Mon 1:00am
A total of 10 teams won more games at home than Man Utd last season including Leicester, Brunley, West Brom and Bournemouth! The Red Devils managed just 26 goals in their 19 games at Old Trafford – the least in the Premier League era. Mourinho’s defensive style was on full display but despite boasting the second best defence in the league they could only manage 6th position. Winning the Europa League salvaged their season but The Wolf believes they will have to do more than add Lukaku to score more goals. The defensive style will not disappear overnight and they hardly set the world on fire with their attack in the preseason. They played almost exclusively on the counter when facing superior opponents and that will not cut the mustard in the Premier League. The Hammers will raise more than a few eyebrows this season. Arnautovic, Chicharito, Zabaleta and Joe Hart have all played at the highest level and The Wolf expects them to challenge for a top half finish. Under 2.5 goals saluted in 7 of United’s last 8 EPL games and until we see otherwise The Wolf says to continue backing the Unders.
AFL: St Kilda +7.5 @ $1.91 (v Melbourne) – Sun 1:10pm
Get the cash into the middle because we have a five-chipper here with St Kilda. The Saints should be well and truly favoured in this but the genius bookies are giving us 7.5 points start. The Saints have a dominant record over Melbourne winning 14 of the last 15. More importantly the Demons are horrific bets when favoured, particularly at the MCG. They have covered the line in just 1 of their last 10 matches at the venue while the Saints have covered 4 straight there. Saints are also 25-14 ATS in day matches in Melbourne since 2012 and have covered 8 of their last 12 as an outsider in Melbourne when coming off a win. Saints!!!
NRL: HT/FT – Gold Coast/St George @ $7.50 – Sat 3:00pm
This is simply a must-win match for the Dragons if they have any aspirations of playing finals football. The Titans have been awful in their past two matches, but The Wolf is expected a determined effort here with their pride on the line. The +8 looks like a massive start for the Titans if you ignore their recent form and it’s not like the Dragons have been in the best of touch. The Dragons will get the job done, but The Titans will push them for the full 80 minutes. The $7.50 for the Titans/Dragons double definitely represents great value.
EPL: Newcastle v Tottenham – (Sun 10:30pm)
There is no excuse for a club of Newcastle’s stature and financial strength to get relegated but it didn’t take them long to get things back on track. As expected they won The Championship last season and did so after being able to retain Rafa Benitez and the majority of the squad. There is no shortage of Premier League experience with names such as Shelvey, Colback, Ritchie, Perez and Mitrovic just to name a few. The additions of Murphy and Atsu will give them an abundance of speed on the flanks which will basically see them be a ‘poor man’s Spurs’ this season. That will be more than enough to get them mid table and with what is a very young squad they will build in the years to come. Spurs on the other hand are built and ready to challenge for that elusive Premier League title. They have the most settled squad of any team in the league and will look to get off to a fast start. They play just one top 6 side in the first 8 weeks (Chelsea) and even that is at home. They key to Tottenham’s season lies in their ability to get results at Wembley – their make shift home while their new home is built. The Wolf believes playing at Wembley will help improve their away form and is expecting them to score even more goals on the road this season. The Kane, Eriksen and Alli show will start at St James’ Park. Both teams have found the net in 8 of the last 12 meetings with at least 3 goals in 10 of those matches. This could be the match of the round!
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.70)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.00)
NRL: Penrith v Nth Queensland – Sat 7:30pm
The Panthers forced their way into the Top 8 after their win over the Tigers and the Dragons loss to the Rabbitohs. The Cowboys currently sit in sixth position and could keep their Top 4 hopes alive with an upset win here. The Panthers have named Matt Moylan on an extended bench as he nears a return from a hamstring injury. The Cowboys will be without Gavin Cooper and Antonio Winterstein, who both picked up injuries in last week’s loss to the Storm. The Cowboys have won seven of the last eight against the Panthers including three of the last four in Penrith. The Wolf is backing the Cowboys as outsiders here. The Panthers have had a soft run and are 0-6 against teams in the Top 6 this year. Throw in the Cowboys strong recent record against the Panthers and they start to look a great bet, not only with the +6.5 start but straight up.
Best: North Queensland +6.5 ($1.91)
Other: Over 38 points ($1.90)