The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – April 7
It’s the biggest weekend in sport this year with NRL, AFL, EPL, A-League and Super Rugby.
AFL: Hawthorn -20.5 @ $1.91 (v Gold Coast) – Sun 4:40pm
Are the Suns going to show us any good football in 2017? Gold Coast has undoubtedly been the most disappointing side of 2017. They lost at home to Brisbane in round 1 before being hammered by GWS to the tune of 102 points. The Hawks have ran into two sides on fire so far in season 2017 in Essendon and Adelaide. They are 0-2 but by no means playing bad football. The Suns have failed to eclipse 63 points in their last 6 games against Hawthorn with the Hawks winning each of those games. The Hawks have averaged 155ppg in that stretch and will take full advantage of a lacklustre Suns outfit. The Hawks first win of the season will be a big one!
NRL: Melbourne 1-12 @ $3.00 (v Cronulla) – Sun 4:00pm
The grand final rematch will wrap up Round 6 and couldn’t have come at a better time for the Storm. The Storm are the only undefeated team through five rounds and are the clear benchmark in the competition. The Storm have won 11 of the last 14 against the Sharks but missed the big one last year. The Storm won last year’s Round 26 clash 26-6 at AAMI Park and the Sharks have not won in Melbourne since 2008. Defence has again been what the Storm’s unbeaten run has been built on with the Storm not conceding more than 14 points in a match. Melbourne are 4-1 ATS with a 4-1 under record this season and a low scoring game will result in a narrow margin of victory. The Wolf is backing the Storm to make amends for last year’s grand final loss on the back of their brickwall defence. They’ve only conceded 48 points so far this season and will grind the Sharks out of this one.
A-League: Over 3.5 goals @ $2.25 (Central Coast v Newcastle) – Sun 5:00pm
There has for long been a myth that the F3 derby is high scoring. It definitely hasn’t been and The Wolf has historically pushed us into the Unders at a big price. With 7 of the last 8 encounters producing no more than 2 goals the Unders looks huge value but Wolfy says there is a big twist this time around. The Mariners need all 3 points to climb of the bottom and it could be their last chance with a meeting against the Victory next week. Furthermore, both these sides have been embarrassing on the defensive end. The Mariners have conceded 12 goals in a 4 game losing streak while the Jets have been hammered – allowing 15 in their last 4. At home and in desperate need of maximum points it will be the Mariners who push the tempo and it will cost them. Newcastle has shown glimpses on the counter with Hoole and Nabbout and The Wolf is relying on them to get us over the line.
EPL: Hull Over 1.5 goals @ $6.00 – Sat midnight
Things have not gone according to plan for Pep Guardiola and he has clearly failed to adjust to the style of the Premier League. His side has a genuine chance to close the gap on the leaders over the last few week but in their 3 matches against Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea they were only able to collect two points. They now host a side battling to avoid relegation and Hull have shown just how dangerous a desperate side can be. The Tigers have won 3 of their last 4 to jump out of the drop zone and will head to Etihad Stadium with a nothing to lose attitude. Historically a low scoring team, that book has been thrown out of the window thanks to Marco Silva and the hunger to stay in the top flight. The Over is 5-0 in their last 5 games with the Tigers scoring multiple goals in 3 of their last 4. City’s defensive problems have been well publicised and they will again need rely on outscoring their opponents to collect all 3 points. Hull have the ability to score twice at a huge price!
AFL: Port Adelaide v Adelaide – Sat 7:40pm
It’s a top of the table showdown and one thing is for certain – things will get physical. Port Adelaide ran all over Fremantle last week with gun Robbie Gray helping himself to 30 disposals and 6 goals in a best on ground performance. The Crows are also 2-0 after resounding wins over flag favourites GWS in round 1 and an away win against Hawthorn last week. Rory Sloane who was ferocious laying 16 tackles and the young midfield brigade followed suit with Charlie Cameron and Wayne Milera again standing up. Adelaide have won 6 of the last 10 showdowns with 8 of those encounters going over the game total. The Crows will be looking to make this a shoot out given they have the number one ranked forward line in the competition. The Wolf says the will kick their way to victory.
Best: Adelaide 1-39 ($2.25)
Prop: Robbie Gray 3 or More Goals ($2.60)
NRL: Canberra v Parramatta – Sat 5:30pm
It was another busy week in Tigertown, with the announcement of Ivan Cleary as the new Tigers coach. He’ll have a difficult first-up assignment against the Cowboys in Townsville and he could be left wondering why he signed on the dotted line. The Tigers have won 8 of their last 12 against the Cowboys, but North Queensland have won the last three in Townsville by margins of 13, 28 and 58. The Tigers will have painful memories of their last trip to Townsville, where they left with their tails between their legs on the end of a 64-6 thumping. It’s impossible to back against the Cowboys, but the Tigers will come out determined for at least the first half as plenty of the squad will be playing for contracts beyond this year, with new coach Cleary at the helm. The loss of Granville is a blow, but Thurston and Taumalolo should have a night out here once the Tigers drop their heads.
Best Bet: North Queensland 13+ ($1.65)
Other: Over 44.5 ($1.88)