The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – April 14
It’s the biggest weekend in sport this year with NRL, AFL, EPL, A-League and Super Rugby.
NRL: Cronulla +3.5 @ $1.91 (v Penrith) – Sun 4:00pm
Cronulla have won 7 of the last 9 against Penrith including both games last season. The Sharks won the Round 8 clash 20-18 at Cronulla and did the job again in Round 18 at Penrith with a 26-10 victory. Cronulla are 19-12 ATS dating back to 2014 in day matches and showed us they will be a force again this season with an unbelievable defensive display in the win over the Storm. The Panthers are 3-7 ATS with a 7-3 under record in their last 10 as a small home favourite. The Sharks have covered four straight road games and are a perfect 5-0 as a small road outsider in their last 5. Despite being a day game this one shapes as a real defensive battle and that can only suit the Sharks. We saw Penrith have real trouble posting points against the Storm a fortnight ago and breaking down the Sharks disciplined goal-line defence will not be easy. The Sharks with the start is a special.
EPL: Teams To Score – Tottenham Only @ $2.20 (v Bournemouth) – Sat 9:30pm
Spurs continue to put the pressure on Chelsea and they continue to be free money at home. They have won their last 7 across all competitions and extended home win streak in the league to 11. The records continue to tumble for Pochettino’s men. They are 16 games unbeaten at home in the Premier League with 10 clean sheets along the way. Their +21 goal differential at home reflects just how good they have been at White Hart Lane and they are also set to finish on top of rivals Arsenal for the first time since 1995 – a nice bonus for the fans. Bournemouth fought their way to a point at Anfield last week but have just a single goal in their last 3 meetings against Spurs. Harry Kane made his return off the bench last week and The Wolf says he will no doubt find his way onto the score sheet. With 5 first half goals in their last two games look for the hosts to make another quick start before cruising to a comfortable win.
AFL: Fremantle +22.5 @ $1.91 (v Melbourne) – Sat 1:45pm
Melbourne will be without star Trio Max Gawn (hamstring), Jordan Lewis (suspension) and Jesse Hogan (suspension) for this clash against Fremantle. With Aaron Sandilands in the main ruck role for Fremantle, the Wolf is expecting him to dominate Jake Spencer and give first possession down to the likes of Neale, Hill, Fyfe and Mundy. It means that Fremantle will continue will their dominant record over the Demons. The Dockers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings going 7-1 ATS along the way. The Dees have averaged just 53.5 points per game in that stretch and The Wolf is not ready to buy into them turning it around. This is a big start and the Dockers are in fact a great chance at the outright win.
A-League: Teams To Score – Sydney FC Only @ $2.35 (v Newcastle) – Sat 5:35pm
Newcastle need to win to avoid collecting yet another wooden spoon but The Wolf says they blew their chance last week in the F3 derby. They now travel to Allianz to take on the runaway leaders and competition favourites. The Sky Blues have been nothing short of perfect this season and The Wolf praises their work ethic above all else. With the Premier’s Plate won a long time ago Graham Arnold was in a position to rest as many players as possible. Rather than do so, he has reiterated to his team that there is one month left in the season and that they need to maintain 100% commitment. That will continue this week and they will post their 8th consecutive win over the Jets. The Sky Blues have 10 clean sheets in their last 11 versus the Jets and are in fact undefeated in their last 14 meetings with them. Wolfy is shocked to see the price of his best bet at more than $2!
EPL: Over 3.5 goals @ $2.75 (Southampton v Man City) – Sun 2:30am
The Saints have left it late but are playing some of their best football. Their only loss in their last 5 came away to Spurs and they are coming off back to back wins over Palace and West Brom. They can thank their defence for the improvement and their 37 goals conceded gives them the 6th best defensive record in the league. City ended their winless run with a win over Hull but again conceded a nothing goal late on. One thing we have come to learn this season is that City love to make it a shootout – especially on the road. There have been 55 goals in their 16 away games this season at an average of almost 3.5 goals per game. Both teams have found the back of the net in 9 of the last 11 meetings with the same amount producing at least 3 goals. The Wolf says we could see in excess of 4 goals.
AFL: Hawthorn v Geelong – Mon 3:20pm
Can the undefeated Cats win again or will the Hawks record their first win of 2017? Hawthorn was nothing short of atrocious on the road against a previously struggling Gold Coast side. The Hawks were thumped on the scoreboard and in major stat categories such as disposals (343 to 498), inside 50’s (36 to 64) and contested possessions (118 to 180). The Hawks are now 0-3 Straight up and 0-3 ATS in a tough start to 2017. We can expect the Cats to rely heavily on their superstar players in Dangerfield, Selwood and Hawkins who have been superb so far in 2017. With the Hawks coming back from an Interstate trip and struggling to find any sort of form the Wolf can only see one outcome here and that’s an easy win to the Cats.
Best: Geelong -14.5 ($1.91)
Prop: Dangerfield 35+ Disposals ($2.25)
NRL: Canberra v Parramatta – Sat 5:30pm
The Eels are in desperate need of a win after dropping four-matches straight after starting the season 2-0. Meanwhile, the Tigers produced the upset of the season for new coach Ivan Cleary, downing the Cowboys in Townsville 26-16. The Tigers have long had the best of Parramatta winning 8 of their last 12 against the Eels. Both of teams recorded a win against each other in 2016, with the Eels winning the Easter Monday clash 8-0, while the Tigers bounced back in Round 21, with a 23-8 victory. Four of the last five matches have tallied less than 39 points. The Wolf is ignoring the Tigers strong recent record over the Eels and is taking Brad Arthur’s men purely based on desperation. The Tigers will be still be on a high after their shock in Townsville and might not be switched on to get in the arm wrestle with the Eels. The Eels are too good a side to keep down, with players like Corey Norman and Semi Radradra in line for a strong effort here. Eels to return to the winner’s circle.
Best Bet: Parramatta -3.5 ($1.91)
Other: Under 41.5 ($1.88)