The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – October 6
The NRL and AFL seasons may have ended but the sports action continues. A-League, NFL, Rugby and much more!
A-League: Under 2.5 goals @ $2.10 (Central Coast v Newcastle) – Sat 5:30pm
The Jets managed just 2 points in their last 10 A-League games, lost their last 7 away from home and have failed to score in their last 470 minutes of A-League football on the road. The two sides met in the penultimate round of last season and it was a 2-0 win to the Mariners which allowed them to leap-frog the Jets and condemn them to the spoon. There is a false perception that the F3 Derby is one of excitement and end to end action. Unfortunately this is not the case. The Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings with 5 of those matches ending in a stalemate. Goals will be hard to come by.
Rugby Championship: New Zealand 13+ @ $1.67 (v South Africa) – Sun 2:05am
The 57-0 thrashing in Auckland 3 weeks ago, is the All Blacks largest ever score and winning margin against the South Africans. It’s also the biggest loss inflicted on the Springboks and just the 3rd time they have been held to 0. What is even more concerning for the South Africans is the fact that the All-Blacks are back to full strength after resting several stars in the win over Argentina last week. On home soil we will see improvement from the Springbok but not enough to avoid another heavy defeat.
UFC 216: Over 2.5 Rounds @ $1.71 (Ferguson v Lee) – Sun 3:00pm
It’s hard to manufacture a superstar, they either have that x-factor or they don’t. Kevin Lee has that aura about him, the way he speaks, dresses and moves include all the ingredients to make a superstar cage fighter, all he’s missing is that big win! In this bout Lee, must stay unpredictable keep Ferguson guessing and don’t let El Cucuy get into his grooth. If all things go to plan for the Motown Phenom, fans could be witnessing the next big fight for Conor McGregor. Either competitor must be impressive in victory to get Conor to come back and defend his lightweight belt. With the Diaz re-match not garnishing immediate attention, now could be the perfect time for either man to strike. Look for this one to start slow and build to an epic conclusion, the Wolf sees a fight of the year contender right here.
NFL: Houston +1 @ $1.91 (v Kansas City) – Mon 11:30am
The Texans led by rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson made the NFL world take notice after a blistering 57-14 win over the Titans last week. Watson looked like a seasoned veteran, throwing four TDs and rushing one in of his own. Now comes the big test against the 4-0 Chiefs and a rampaging Justin Houston. Watson’s ability to move around in the pocket and having the explosive DeAndre Hopkins as his go-to man, should hold Watson in good stead against any pressure that the Chiefs send his way. The Chiefs (4-0) have been ultra-impressive this season on the back of QB Alex Smith and rookie RB sensation Kareem Hunt. The one disadvantage for the Chiefs is that they’re on a short week after their come-from-behind win over the Redskins in Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. It’s a real toss of the coin job, but The Wolf has settled on the home side with +1 start.
A-League: Adelaide Over 2.5 goals @ $6.50 (v Wellington) – Sun 3:00pm
Adelaide are coming off their worst season in 5 years but as bad as it was they still managed to take care of business against the Phoenix. In the three meetings last season the Reds posted a win and two draws. Going further back they are undefeated in their last 5 against the NZ side (3 wins, 2 draws) and have scored multiple goals in 5 of their last 6 clashes. The Wolf has Adelaide rated as favourites for this one and they will somehow be starting as outsiders. Adelaide to continue their unbeaten against the Nix and will do so in fine fashion. They have found the back of the net on 3 occasions in each of their last two matches (FFA Cup) and The Wolf says they will take that form with them across the Tasman.
Rugby Championship: Australia v Argentina – Sun 9:40am
The Wallabies can end the Rugby Championship on a high and secure second spot on the table with a win over the Pumas in Mendoza. Ever since the 2nd Bledisloe Cup match in Dunedin he Wallabies have been playing some inspired rugby. The front and back row conundrum looks to be sorted for the time being with both units performing admirably in South Africa. The back line is the real weapon for the men in gold and now sits behind only the All Blacks in terms of class. Unfortunately, the Wallabies undoing over the last 18 months has been a sheer lack of consistency so it is important that they turn up on Sunday Morning (AEDT) and put the Pumas to the sword ahead of the 3rd Bledisloe in Brisbane and the all-important Spring tour.
Best bet: Australia first half line – 3.5 ($1.90)
Value bet: Australia 13+ ($2.65)
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC – Sat 7:50pm
Rivalries come and go but there is nothing quite like the Big Blue. They are two of the most successful clubs in the A-League and rarely to they disappoint. Sydney did the regular season treble over the Victory last season but needed to hold their nerve in a penalty shootout to win the Grand Final. It extended Sydney’s remarkable record in recent times over their rivals. The Sky Blues have lost just 1 of their last 10 against Melbourne and have allowed just 5 in the last 5 meetings. It has been 7 meetings since there were more than 3 goals and there has been an average of just 2 goals per game across the last 6 clashes. The battles have become very tactical since Graham Arnold has taken charge and The Wolf says this one will be no exception. Both sides like to build from the back and take control in midfield. The number one focus for Sydney will again be defence and this early in the season we will see a very controlled tempo from Arnold’s men. They will go into the sheds at a stalemate and it could be a single goal that gives either side all 3 points.
Best Bet: 1st Half Result – Draw ($2.15)
Value Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.15)