The Wolf’s Sporting Guide – September 9
Get The Wolf’s best bets across all codes this weekend including the NRL, American Football, Soccer Internationals and other sporting action this weekend..
|NRL||Penrith v Canterbury: Under 41.5 ($1.90)|
|AFL||Adelaide v North Melbourne: Adelaide -32.5 (1.90)|
|NFL||San Diego v Kansas City: San Diego +7 ($1.90)|
|Rugby Union||Australia v South Africa: South Africa ($2.35)|
NRL: Penrith v Canterbury: Under 41.5 ($1.90) – Sun 4pm
The angles are plentiful here for the under. Finals games skew under. Canterbury are a big under team in finals. The under is huge when a team conceded just single digits in finals matches. The under hits at 59% when teams come off a big win or a huge loss and the betting is close. The under is 14-7 since 2013 when the Panthers are favoured by 4.5 or more. On and on they go
AFL: Adelaide v North Melbourne: Adelaide -32.5 (1.90) – Sat 7.50pm
It’s hard to see this one going anything but the way of the home side. Adelaide got a reality check in the last round after a soft draw, and received a lesson in finals intensity. Expect them to learn from it. North have struggled for the best part of three months now, and in reality are not one of the best eight teams in the competition. Their early season form has long since dissipated, and they don’t have the class nor function to beat the top contenders. Add in the unrest created by the Kangaroos off-field staff pensioning off veterans like Harvey, Petrie and Firrito, and the instability at North is not going to lead to finals wins. Adelaide’s best is free-flowing attacking footy to the most potent forward-line in the AFL, matched with defensive soundness which keeps the ball trapped in their forward half. North won’t be able to match them, and can be expected to drop away late in the game once the result is a foregone conclusion.
NFL: San Diego v Kansas City: San Diego +7 ($1.90) – Mon 3am
The Wolf is in love with the Chargers this year and cannot believe they are getting a full touchdown in Week 1. All the metrics suggest San Diego are in for a big bounce-back year. Away underdogs of 7 or more have covered 7 of the last 10 AFC West division battles while the Chargers have covered 5 of 6 back to 2010 getting 7 on the road against divisional rivals. Bet of the week.
Rugby Union: Australia v South Africa: South Africa ($2.35) – Sat 8pm
The Wallabies are in a mess, and sticking with virtually the same backline is unlikely to aid their bid to regain respectability. Bringing Mumm in for Fardy to boost their battling line-out only emphasises their weaknesses in the second-row – and they will struggle against Springbok twin towers Etzebeth and de Jager. The visitors, meanwhile, have pulled the right rein with selecting powerful centre de Jongh and Kriel, who could cause real carnage in the inexperienced Wallabies midfield. The Boks are impossible to resist as underdogs here, despite their ordinary record in Brisbane.
NRL: Melbourne v North Queensland: Melbourne/Under ($3.50) – Sat 7.30pm
The under in this one shapes as the best bet of the first week of the finals with under angles everywhere. The Storm are a huge under team, particularly at night when a home favourite, the under hits at 20-8 in finals when the road team comes in off a big win and the under is big in finals football. The history between these two is also of low-scoring matches. Melbourne’s home-field advantage should get them home in this one though the Cowboys have won both all-time finals between the teams.
Combined Odds: $16.12
Under 41.5 (Pen-Cant)| Adelaide -32.5| San Diego +7| South Africa
Feature Match Previews
NRL: Canberra v Cronulla – Sat 5.30pm
We are in for an absolute belter here and it is impossible to go against Canberra in their current form. The Raiders are flying, playing as well as any team in the premiership, and teams off big attacking performances have a great record in finals. There are some angles for the Sharks – they bounce back well off big losses – but the Raiders form is irresistible at the moment and small home favourites in the opening week of the finals have a dominant record.
Best Bet: Canberra -2.5 ($1.90)
Other: Canberra 1-12 ($3.00)
AFL: Sydney v GWS – Sat 3.20pm
Sydney bring a wealth of finals and premiership experience to their September campaign, safe in the knowledge they have what it takes to get the job done. GWS will approach the game with the fearlessness that only youth can provide, and will back themselves to win anywhere anytime. Sydney’s midfield has the edge due to a more consistent spread at the top end, and complementary assets. Josh Kennedy will lead the way, with an understandably superior finals record (average of 29 disposals per final across his career) given his contested and clearance style. He also averages 28 touches per game against GWS.Sydney’s defence is the most miserly in the league, and they can strangle the GWS forwards under the pressure of finals, when scoring is more difficult. The Swans will be too hardened, too professional, and too good for the Giants.
Best Bet:Wire to Wire – Sydney Lead at End of Each Quarter ($2.25)
Value: Sydney Line -15.5 ($1.91)