EPL Preview – Gameweek 29

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EPL Gameweek 29

Thankfully we have a full round of EPL this week and The Wolf is predicting it will be a round of upsets. With several teams backing up from midweek European matches and other suffering key injuries we could see several changes in and around the top 4. The match of the round takes us to Etihad Stadium where Man City will be hosting Liverpool.

Feature EPL Match Previews

West Brom v Arsenal – (Sat 11:30pm)
The Baggies have failed to deal with the absence of Matt Phillips in the centre of the park in recent weeks. He has been a live wire in midfield for West Brom adding 4 goals and 9 assists while being involved in almost every one of his sides attacking forays. After failing to score against both Palace and Everton, Tony Pulis has hinted that he will make changes and is hopeful of a early return for Phillips. What Phillips is to West Brom, Sanchez is to Arsenal. The Chilean has been involved in 26 goals this season (17 goals and 9 assists) more than any other player! That being said, there is a ‘BUT’. He is clearly unsettled and is almost guaranteed to leave the club at seasons end. Following the 5-1 thumping by Bayern Arsene Wenger played a full strength side against Lincoln in the FA Cup, and the purpose was to no doubt help rebuild the confidence of the side. Sanchez, Giroud, Walcott and Ramsey all found their way onto the score sheet but The Wolf says that we won’t see an instant turnaround in form. The Gunners have won only 1 of their last 4 across all competitions at The Hawthors and have been held to just a single goal in 6 of the last 8 meetings between the two sides. With losses in 4 of their last 6 away matches in the league Wolfy says to steer clear of Arsenal at the odds on price.
Best: Double Chance West Brom or Draw ($1.95)
Value: Under 2.5 goals ($2.05)

Stoke v Chelsea – (Sun 2:00am)
Chelsea’s 10 point lead at the top looks unassailable especially when you consider that they have lost just 1 of their last 21 EPL matches. The Potters certainly wont let Chelsea have it all their own way and will be extremely confident after holding Man City to a goal-less draw. They are undefeated in their last 8 Premier League matches at home and have conceded just 4 goals in that stretch – a run that includes 4 clean sheet victories. Stoke has not been a happy hunting ground for the Blues of late. The have come away with just 2 wins from their last 7 trips to the Midlands and The Potters size in defence always makes them very difficult to break down. The Unders is 8-1 in Stoke’s last 9 league matches at home and we have seen Chelsea more than content to wear teams down and win by a single goal.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value: Draw ($4.00)

Middlesbrough v Man Utd – (Sun 11:00pm)
Jose Mourinho’s tactics to deliberately foul Hazard in the FA Cup clash against Chelsea became undone earlier than expected. It resulted in Herrera being sent and his side having to play with 10 men. It was his sides first loss in 11 matches across all competitions and they face a very busy schedule ahead with several postpones matches and unacceptable results. A 1-1 draw away to Rostov in the first leg of their Europa clash means that Mourinho was forced to play his strongest side in the second leg rather than being in a position to rest several players ahead of this clash. A top 4 finish is crucial for United and the fact that this on is away from home could in fact help them. They have scored multiple goals in 4 of their last 5 away league games with a total of 10 goals and 13 of a possible 15 points. In comparison, at home United has scored just 13 goals in 11 games! The Red Devils have enjoyed travelling to Riverside and have scored in each of their last 14 games away to Boro. the Wolf says they wont be scoring more than once though. Boro have conceded just 14 in their 13 home games this season – the least of any team in the bottom half and with United playing their 3rd game in less than a week The Wolf cannot see them dominating.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.60)
Value: 1st Half Correct Score 0-0 ($2.75)

Tottenham v Southampton – (Mon 1:15am)
Why Pochettino would play Harry Kane against Millwall in the FA Cup is beyond all belief and with his star now sidelined for 4-6 week the goals are almost certain to dry up. With 7 teams in the hunt for a top 4 finish it is an injury they cannot afford but will now have to deal with playing without the EPL’s leading scorer. Heung Min Son will now shoulder the responsibility up front and will need plenty of support from Dele Alli and Eriksen. They will be aided by a tremendous home record and a Saints defence that has been leaking goals at a rapid rate. Southampton has conceded 15 goals in their last 6 across all competitions which is alarming to say the least. Even more concerning will be Spurs goal scoring record at White Hart Lane. They are undefeated in their last 14 at home across all competitions with 13 wins and an incredible 44 goals and 8 clean sheets in that period. Tottenham have been money at home this season.
Best: Teams To Score – Tottenham Only ($2.85)
Value: Tottenham Over 2.5 goals ($3.40)

Man City v Liverpool – (Mon 3:30am)
The Wolf is shocked to see Man City come up this short in the betting. They have lost 5 of their last 6 against the Reds and are on a short turn around following their midweek Champions League trip to France. It was a sad night in Monaco for City whose defensive frailties were again exposed. Questions continue to be asked about Pep and if Wenger is going to be in the firing line, so should he. After all, he ran with two Arsenal rejects as his wing backs in Monaco – namely Sagna and Clichy. Liverpool has found the back of the net in its last 12 matches against City and has collected 11 of a possible 15 points in a 5 game unbeaten run against top 6 sides. The Wolf says to make sure you get a piece of Liverpool in the double chance market as the City defence will not know whether to look left or right.
Best: Double Chance Draw or Liverpool ($1.72)
Value: HT/FT – Liverpool/Liverpool ($6.00)

Best Bets

Best: Double Chance Draw or Liverpool ($1.72)
Best Value: Tottenham Over 2.5 goals ($3.40)

Results

Best Bets
Gameweek 28: 2-3
Gameweek 28 ROI: 79%
Overall: 93-130
Overall ROI: 83.04%

Value Bets
Gameweek 28: 1-4
Gameweek 28 ROI: 60%
Overall: 54-169
Overall ROI: 84.88%

All Bets
Overall ROI: 83.68%