EPL Gameweek 8
The EPL returns after yet another dreaded international break and it has been a costly one for several teams with injuries to key players. How will they respond…
EPL Match Previews
Liverpool v Man Utd – (Sat 10:30pm)
What a way to kick of Gameweek 8!!! It’s one of the biggest rivalries in world football and there will be no love lost at Anfield. The international break was far from kind to both sides. Mane is looking a 6 weeks on the sidelines with a hamstring injury while Mourinho will be without Fellaini for at least a few weeks after he picked up a knee injury. It seems like a minor blow but he was very effective in Pogba’s absence and with a busy schedule coming up that includes Champions League, Mourinho will be limited as to the style and tactics he can employ. Tactics have been critical in their recent meetings and goals have consequently very hard to come by. The Unders is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings across all competitions with both teams finding the back of the net in just 4 of the last 11 meetings. As bad as Liverpool have been defensively they have maintained 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home EPL matches. Doing so against a rampant Man Utd will not be easy. United have scored 21 goals this season and conceded just the 2 – both in the one game away to Stoke. Liverpool have had trouble breaking down sides which sit deep and keep a narrow defensive line. This is the case as they are one of the smaller sides in the league and lack any aerial presence. No Mane hurts them and with Mourinho set to start both Herrera and Matic in a defensive-minded midfield The Wolf loves the Unders.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value: Both Teams To Score – NO ($2.15)
Burnley v West Ham – (Sun 1:00am)
A League Cup loss to Leeds on penalties is the only real blemish on what has been a great start to Burnley’s season. They have wins over Chelsea and Everton while taking points off Tottenham and Liveprool – all away from home! To have conceded a total of just 5 goals with the draw they have had is incredible. The back four of Ward, Lowton, Mee and Tarkowski deserve a stack of the credit but lets not forget the hard work of Cork and Defour. Brady provides great spark out wide and Wood has been worth every penny. Meanwhile Bilic kept his job at the helm of the Hammers thanks to a 1-0 win over Swansea. He was quietly confident in the press with Arnautovic and Lanzini making their returns this week but The Wolf says they are not ready to win on the road. They have managed a single point in their 4 road games this season and failed to score in 3 of those games. The Under is 6-0 in Burnely’s last 6 EPL fixtures and 10-1 in their last 11 at Turf Moor. They will be hold the Hammers at bay.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.60)
Value: Teams To Score – Burnley Only ($4.00)
C.Palace v Chelsea – (Sun 1:00am)
Chelsea’s lack of depth will be tested in the coming weeks as they will be without their two most important players – Kante and Morata. Batshuayi will get the nod up front with Fabregas to play alongside Bakayoko in midfield. The Blues are blessed with a favourable run and with Hazard ready for 90 minutes they should have no trouble against Palace. After all Palace are yet to score this season and are coming off back to back thumpings of 5-0 and 4-0 to the two Manchester clubs. Roy Hodgson was supposed to be the saviour but he clearly had no idea what he was signing up for. Palace have been good for an upset win over Chelsea in recent seasons but as it stands they are a side lacking confidence and quality. Benteke has joined the growing injury list – a list that includes Wickham and Zaha. They will also be without Loftus-Cheek who is ineligible to take on his parent club as part of the loan deal. It is hard to see how much worse things can get but they definitely will not be getting better this week.
Best: Over 2.5 goals & Chelsea ($2.05)
Value: Chelsea Over 3.5 goals ($6.00)
Man City v Stoke – (Sun 1:00am)
Stoke have historically troubled many of the top sides and City fall right into that category. City have won just 5 of their last 11 Premier League fixtures against The Potters and just 1 of the last 3 at home. When they won though they have won well with the last 3 wins reading 4-1, 4-0 and 4-1. City have been on an absolute tear this season winning 8 straight across all competitions and with 6 clean sheets in their last 7. They have been dealt a major blow with Aguero to spend time out after sustaining a rib injury in a car accident but it means more game time for Sane and Sterling who have been live wires on the wings. Stoke could be without both Allen and Jese with Shawcross and Martins Indi also out. It’s in midfield where City have a significant advantage. David Silva and De Bruyne have combined for 9 assists and that is more than the entire Stoke squad. City are an offensive juggernaut at home and Stoke will find out all about it.
Best: Teams To Score – Man City Only ($1.85)
Value: 1st Half Man City Over 1.5 goals ($2.35)
Swansea v Huddersfield – (Sun 1:00am)
Unlike Ange Postecoglou you can be sure that Aaron Mooy will be in David Wagner’s starting XI. The loss at home to Spurs was their worst performance of the season but the international break is not all bad news for the smaller sides in the EPL as they have very few players making long trips around the globe. The goals have dried up for both of these sides but they have been stubborn enough defensively to remain competitive. Swansea have conceded just 4 in their last 4 league games while Huddersfield had allowed just 3 goals in their opening 6 games prior to the loss against Spurs. The Under is 5-1 in the Terriers’ last 6 which line3s up well with the Swans who are 5-2 Under on the season. The Wolf is bemused as to how Swansea can be this short in the market. They have lost all 3 of their matches at home and have just a single goal to show for it. Huddersfield are value as the outsider.
Best: Double Chance Draw or Huddersfield ($1.60)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($2.60)
Tottenham v Bournemouth – (Sun 1:00am)
We knew Harry Kane would get going eventually but boy is he on FIRE! He had 7 in his last 3 for Spurs prior to the break and took that form with him to international duty with back to back winning goals for England against Slovenia and Lithuania. It has helped catapult Spurs into 3rd spot and they were always going to be a title threat once the goals began to flow. Bournemouth have not enjoyed taking on Tottenham. They have gone down 4-0 and 3-0 in their last two away to Spurs and have lost each of their 3 away games in the league this season. The Cherries have failed to score in each of their last 3 outings against Pochettino’s men and that trend looks set to continue with Spurs maintaining 4 clean sheets in their last 5 across all competitions. Kane is set to go off yet again. He has 6 goals in his last 3 against Bournemouth including a hat trick! With matches against Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal over the next month you can be sure that Tottenham will want to seal all 3 points in this one nice and early.
Best: Teams To Score – Tottenham Only ($1.90)
Value: Tottenham Over 3.5 goals ($3.00)
Watford v Arsenal – (Sun 3:30am)
This may be hard to believe but through 7 games of the season Arsenal and Watford have scored the same amount of goals. The Gunners have surprisingly been held scoreless in three of their matches this season and as one would expect it has been each of their 3 away games this season. They have collected just 1 of a possible 9 points on the road this season and it is the reason they are already 6 points off the pace. This shapes as a real danger game for Wenger’s side. The sides have split the last 4 meetings with 2 wins a piece with The Hornets toughness a real feature. The Over is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings with both teams finding the back of the net in 6 of those encounters. The French duo of Doucoure and Capoue have taken control in midfield for Watford which has allowed Cleverly and Richarlison to operate with almost unlimited freedom. With Arsenal back to full strength in attack this shapes as a real shootout. It’s time for Sanchez and Ozil to really click into gear.
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.53)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($2.50)
Brighton v Everton – (Sun 11:30pm)
Everton are in trouble! Irrespective of a tough schedule to start the season, sitting 16th after 7 games is unacceptable. They simply cannot find the back of the net and with only 4 goals to show for themselves, only Seansea and Crystal Palace have scored less. Rooney’s goal on the opening day seems created a false sense of hope and Calvert-Lewin has failed to find the back of the net despite getting a chunk of game time. They are desperate to see the return of Barkley and Bolasie but neither have been given a return date. The Toffees have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 league games and that leaves the door wide open for Brighton. The newly promoted side have been impressive at home. They battled hard in a loss to City before posting wins over West Brom and Newcastle. The suspension of Hemed doesn’t help and means both team with be low on stocks when it comes to scoring ability. The points will be shared.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.53)
Value: Draw ($3.10)
Southampton v Newcastle – (Mon 6:00am)
They haven’t had much to cheer about at St Mary’s Stadium in recent times. Southampton have won just 1 of their last 9 home Premier League matches and have remarkably failed to score in 8 of those matches. Newcastle on the other hand are one of the hot sides in the top flight. They have lost just 1 of their last 5 and are coming off a hard earned draw at home to Liverpool. They have a favourable run over the next month and The Wolf expects them to tally points on the back of it. Ritchie and Atsu have been very effective out wide and they will put a tonne of pressure on Cedric and Bertrand. The Saints midfield duo of Romeu and Lemina is a real downgrade on recent seasons (Wanyama, Schneiderlin, Cork ect) and an area they have failed to address. The Wolf has Newcastle winning the midfield battle and is shocked to see Southampton this short in the market!
Best: Double Chance Draw or Newcastle ($1.85)
Value: Teams To Score – Newcastle Only ($7.00)
Leicester v West Brom – (Tue 6:00am)
The next month of football is very important for The Foxes. They had a ridiculously tough draw to start the season but it opens up with matches against West Brom, Swansea and a struggling Everton. They have had no troubles scoring at home but it hasn’t translated into many points. We have now seen them score in 10 straight EPL home games and they have in fact found the back of the net on multiple occasions in 7 of those matches. Goals has also been the theme in the recent meetings between the two sides with 4 of the last 5 producing at least 3 goals. There has been a total of 18 goals in that 5 game stretch so the goals will come thick and fast. Vardy has 5 goals already this season and Mahrez is well overdue to contribute.
Best: Leicester WIN ($2.00)
Value: Leicester Over 2.5 goals ($4.75)
Gameweek 7: 4-6
Gameweek 7 ROI: 72.3%
Overall ROI: 91.08%
Gameweek 7: 0-10
Gameweek 7 ROI: 0%
Overall ROI: 61.03%
Overall ROI: 76.06%