EPL Preview – Gameweek 5

EPL Gameweek 5

We’re just four games into the season but the Premier League ladder is already taking shape. Chelsea, Tottenham and the two Manchester clubs occupy 4 of the top 5 spots but The Wolf says this weekend will be their first genuine test with all of the top sides backing up from midweek European commitments.

EPL Match Previews

Bournemouth v Brighton – (Sat 5:00am)
They will meet twice in a matter of days with a midweek EFL Cup clash to follow. The fixtures will provide Bournemouth with an opportunity to get a boost in team morale and some hard earned points after back to back losses to Man City and Arsenal. The Cherries are yet to register a single point this season but The Wolf absolutely loves what he heard from Eddie Howe post game. He did not shy away from the fact that his side were poor and highlighted that his side will have to be at their maximum levels week in, week out to compete in the Premier League. Brighton will look to build on their first ever Premier League win but The Wolf has concerns about their ability to perform on the road. They failed to make any impression away to Leicester and Watford so the trip to the cauldron that is Vitality Stadium will not be easy. Bournemouth had 31 points at home last season (10th most) and The Wolf says they will get back to winning ways this weekend. Stanislas is not far off a return and The Wolf says the Gross/Hemed duo will be brought back down to earth after a match winning performance. Bournemouth claimed 13 of a possible 15 points to close out last season in their last 5 against bottom half opponents and The Wolf says they will capitalise in a match they are expected to win.
Best: Bournemouth WIN ($2.00)
Value: Teams To Score Bournemouth Only ($3.25)

C.Palace v Southampton – (Sat 9:30pm)
Frank de Boer became the first manager sacked with Roy Hodgson taking over after signing a two year deal. His tenure as manager of the English national side was one to forget so it is a surprise to see Palace give him a permanent role immediately. With 4 losses and no goals to open the season they almost had no choice, especially with three of those defeats coming against Huddersfield, Swansea and Burnely – all matches in which they would expect to get points. Things have not gone much better for the Saints and The Wolf says their 5 points disguise just how bad they have been in attack. They have failed to score in 3 of their 4 league games this season and have now been held scoreless in 8 of their last 10 EPL matches dating back to last season. The Wolf isn’t completely shocked as Pellegrino is as defensive-minded as they come. He was a defender by trade as a player and in his last season with Alaves in La Liga his side ranked 16th in attack despite finishing 9th and making the Copa Del Rey final. He will have to loosen the reigns in midfield in order to get Tadic and Redmond some space to create. The Under is 8-2 in their last 10 EPL fixtures making it a real pity that this is the stand alone fixture in the early time slot. Won’t be much for the neutrals to cheer on.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.61)
Value: HT/FT – Draw/Draw ($4.40)

Huddersfield v Leicester – (Sun 12:00am)
Newly promoted Huddersfield had their first taste of defeat last weekend and thing are about to get extremely tough for them with matches against Tottenham, Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal and Everton  over the next 10 weeks. Leicester on the other hand will finally get a chance to go on a run after having already faced Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea – the toughest start for any team. The Wolf is expecting them to make a real impression from now through to Christmas and says they have performed very well without getting results. They should have taken the lead against Chelsea, blew a 3-2 lead against the Gunners and were able to hold out United for the opening 70 minutes at Old Trafford. The Mahrez/Vardy combination looks back to it’s best and Craig Shakespeare has not been shy to put out attacking formations. Aaron Mooy has been brilliant for Huddersfield and has been their go-to man but the key to their success this week lies in the centre back pairing of  Zanka and Schindler. The Wolf is expecting the Foxes to be in full flight! They have scored in 6 of their last 8 away league games with multiple goals at some difficult venues including the Emirates and Goodison Park. Get right around Leicester.
Best: Leicester WIN ($2.50)
Value: Leicester Over 2.5 goals ($6.00)

Liverpool v Burnley – (Sun 12:00am)
Mane should not have been sent from the field but he will still serve a three match ban following the club’s appeal being upheld. His suspension combined with the fact that Liverpool are on limited rest following UCL commitments leaves them exposed. Burnley deserve credit for their start to the season. They beat Chelsea and took a point off Spurs and have already accumulated 4 points from their two away games. Last season they had collected a total of 7 points on the road for the entire season – that’s 19 games! They managed to find the net just once in their first 6 away games last season and The Wolf expects some sort of regression towards that but that doesn’t mean they won’t score. The Reds have won 5 of the 6 meetings between the clubs in the Premier League era and have maintained a clean sheet in 4 of those wins. That being said… Burnley have found the back of the net in 12 of their last 14 away EPL matches. The Wolf cannot ignore that and says to always proceed with caution when Liverpool are in these spots. He says to make sure you DO NOT put Liverpool in any of your multi’s. Sevilla put two past them in a 2-2 draw in the Champions League and The Wolf can see Burnley doing the same.
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($2.00)
Value: Burnley Over 1.5 goals ($5.50)

Newcastle v Stoke – (Sun 12:00am)
It wasn’t going to take Newcastle long to find their groove and The Wolf says they will all but secure their tenure in the Premier League season by the time the new year comes. Under Benitez they are very compact and effective on the defensive end and they have more than enough moving forward to find the back of the net – especially at home. The Wolf points out that the difference between the mid table sides and those in the top 6 is the ability to score goals and get points away from home. Stoke were brilliant against Man Utd last week in a 2-2 draw and it came after they beat Arsenal – again on their own turf. Away from home though it has been a very different story. The Potters have won just 1 of their last 10 away games in the league and have failed to score in 7 of those matches. Choupo Moting looks like a great edition but he will not be getting the same supply when Stoke re on the road. Under 2.5 goals is 7-1 in Stoke’s last 8 away EPL fixtures with half of their last 10 road game failing to produce more than one goal. There will be nothing between them and The Wolf says a dour affair could go either way. One goal to settle it.
Best: Both Teams To Score – NO ($1.90)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($3.00)

Watford v Man City – (Sun 12:00am)
Man City are undefeated against Watford in the Premier League era and are undefeated against the Hornets in their last 11 across all competitions. It includes 6 straight wins and a combined score of 18-3. With Mane sent from the field in their clash against Liverpool it is hard to give City all the credit for the 5-0 win and lets not forget that Watford are undefeated with 2 wins and 2 draws to start their campaign. They have gone over 300 minutes of Premier League football without conceding a goal. Their backline of Holebas, Femenia (could miss out through injury) Kaboul and Kabasele play the game with a real physicality and it is a style of play than can disrupt sides like City who love to move the ball around with short passes. No team in the Premier League should be paying $8.50 to win at home let alone close to even money to find the back of the net. City have had some travelling to do following their UCL fixture in Feyenoord and we are also likely to see Guardiola rotate his squad – particularly across the back. It’s great news for the Hornets and The Wolf says City may have to score at least 3 time in order to take all 3 points.  
Best: Over 3.5 goals ($2.25)
Value: Watford Over 1.5 goals ($4.20)

Tottenham v Swansea – (Sun 2:30am)
Renato Sanches had a debut to forget and he can’t possibly play any worse. He looked lethargic, his passes consistently went astray and the timing of his ball control was off to say the least. He will not fill the void left by Gilfy Sigurdsson and they will have to re-construct the way they go forward in attack without him. They have failed to score in 3 of their 4 matches this season and that is after they collected 13 of a possible 15 points to avoid relegation at the end of last season. The alarm bells are ringing for the visitors as Spurs go in search of their first home win at Wembley. Kane opened his account with a brace last week and after an enthralling encounter with Dortmund the Spurs attack will be out in full force. We saw the Red Devils dismantle Swansea with their speed and Tottenham have the equivalent plus more with Alli and Eriksen. Spurs are undefeated in their 12 EPL clashes with Swansea posting 11 wins and a draw. They have scored multiple goals in their last 7 matches against the Swans and this is a matchup that they have completely dominated. This one could get very ugly for the visitors. 
Best: Teams To Score – Tottenham Only ($1.85)
Value: To Win Both Halves – Tottenham ($2.15)

Chelsea v Arsenal – (Sun 10:30pm)
They are far from strangers and this will be their 5th meeting in less than a year! Arsenal have come out victorious in 3 of those matches claiming the FA Cup and Community Shield. The Gunners may have dominated the cup ties but it is Chelsea who have collected the bulk of the points in the league clashes. The Blues record reads 7 wins, 3 draws and a single loss in the last 11 EPL meetings between them and they have kept Arsenal scoreless in 7 of those matches. Defensively Arsenal have been all over the place. The Wolf is far from sold on Wenger’s switch to a back three and says it is more like a back five with Bellerin and Kolasinac playing on the flanks. Liverpool taught them a footballing lesson a fortnight ago and their preparation will be limited following a late Europa fixture. On their day Arsenal play an amazing brand of football but in big matches they lack the muscle to take control in midfield. Kante, Bakayoko and Luiz will win that battle with ease and the return of Hazard to the starting XI will give them that touch of class. Chelsea’s dominance over their London rivals to continue.
Best: Chelsea WIN ($1.80)
Value: HT/FT – Chelsea/Chelsea ($2.75)

Man Utd v Everton – (Mon 1:00am)
The Red Devils dropped their first points of the season away to Stoke last week while Everton look to get something out of a horror month of football. Somehow they have been scheduled to play Man City, Chelsea, Tottenham and Man Utd in back to back league games. It doesn’t get any harder than that and Koeman will be more than happy to take a point here. The Toffees have held their own against United in recent seasons. They shared the points in both encounters last year and Everton have lost only 3 of their last 8 EPL clashes against their more fancied opponents. Wayne Rooney would love to find the back of the net against his former club and will be aided by Sigurdsson who has now had some time to form combinations with his new team-mates. The Wolf is expecting a real tactical battle in this one. Koeman will play Schneiderlin and Gueye as double holders with Rooney and Gilfy behind Sandro. Former United Academy player Keane will partner the experienced Williams in defence and Baines is no stranger to big matches. Pogba is out for the hosts after coming off with a hamstring complaint in the win over Basel and we could see a change in style as a result. Matic and Lukaku have been logging big minutes for both club and country which could take it’s toll late on. Under 2.5 goals has saluted in 5 of Everton’s last 6 away league games and with both sides in the middle of very busy schedules The Wolf is expecting a more controlled pace and tactical battle – especially in the first half. Unders!
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($2.05)
Value: 1st Half Result – Draw ($2.40)

Best Bets

Best: Man Utd v Everton – Under 2.5 goals ($2.05)
Best Value: Burnley Over 1.5 goals ($5.50)

Results

Best Bets
Gameweek 4: 5-5
Gameweek 4 ROI: 102.70%
Overall: 18-22
Overall ROI: 93.93%

Value Bets
Gameweek 4: 1-9
Gameweek 4 ROI: 27.5%
Overall: 7-33
Overall ROI: 72.16%

All Bets
Overall ROI: 83.04%

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