EPL Gameweek 28 Preview and Tips
Things are getting very tight in the race for a top 4 finish with just 4 points separating 2nd to 5th. Arsenal find themselves 7 points adrift of Spurs and the writing could be on the wall for them with back to back matches against City in the EFL Cup and Premier League in a matter of days. In the other blockbuster Chelsea host Man Utd with both teams backing up after midweek Champions League commitments.
EPL Feature Previews
Leicester v Stoke – (Sat 11:30pm)
Before we get into it this week The Wolf want to give a huge shout out to Jamie Vardy who became the first man in Premier League history to score against Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham in the same season. His 23 goals in 43 games against top 6 sides is the most of any player over the last 5 seasons and the Foxes will be turning to him again this week. He provided the winning goal in the FA Cup clash against Sheffield Utd and has now scored the clubs last 4 goals and has found the back of the net in each of his last 5 appearances. Leicester are undefeated in their last 5 meetings with Stoke including wins in each of the last two matches at King Power Stadium. The Overs is 4-1 in that 5 game stretch with 3 of the matches producing 4 or more goals. Stoke have been leaking goals all season long and have allowed 10 goals in their last 3 away league matches. Leicester to continue their push for Europa League qualification.
Best: Leicester WIN ($1.75)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.25)
Liverpool v West Ham – (Sun 2:00am)
With four of the top 6 sides facing off Spurs playing away from home this is a must win game for Liverpool. They could claim second spot in the ladder, and more importantly, solidify their spot in the top 4. They’ve had plenty of time to rest following their 5-0 win over Porto and have lost just once in the league dating back to October! The Reds have been devastating at Anfield where they are undefeated in their last 15 league games. Mohamed Salah continues to score goals for fun and his 22 goals trail only Harry Kane (23). He also has 9 assists and is a unbackable favourite for Player Of The Year honours. The trio of Salah, Mane and Firmino have been unstoppable. They will get more free reign in this one with Klopp set to play both Henderson and Milner in midfield alongside Emre Can. Liverpool crushed the Hammers back in November and have now put 4 past them in consecutive matches. The Hammers have scored in their last 6 away league games so as has been the case in Liverpool games all season long we will be backing both teams to score.
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.72)
Value: Over 4.5 goals ($3.10)
C.Palace v Tottenham – (Sun 11:10pm)
Spurs are undefeated in 2018 – a 14 game stretch across all competitions but they cannot afford a repeat of the complacency we saw in a FA Cup draw away to Rochdale. Surprisingly Spurs have drawn their last 5 away fixtures, conceding multiple goals in each of their last three. This one will not be as easy as the market suggests. Palace have lost just 1 of their last 10 Premier League matches at Selhurst Park and have found the back of the net on multiple occasions in 7 of those matches. Benteke is proving to be a very effective target man under Hodgson with Milivojevic and Cabaye more than capable of holding their own in the centre of the park. Palace are huge value in the double chance market and to score more than once.
Best: Double Chance C.Palace or Draw ($2.35)
Value: C.Palace Over 1.5 goals ($4.25)
Man Utd v Chelsea – (Mon 1:05am)
There is usually fireworks when two bitter rivals clash but The Wolf says that both managers would be more than happy with a draw heading into this one. It has been a very busy week for both clubs thanks to FA Cup and Champions League fixtures. History suggests there will be nothing between them and with two of the most defensively-minded managers facing off we will witness a very dour affair. Under 2.5 goals is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings and we have seen both teams find the back of the net in only 1 of the last 7 meetings. Chelsea managed just 30% possession at home to Barca during the week and The Wolf says Conte will employ similar tactics for the trip to Old Trafford. Moses and Alonso’s primary role will be defence in what will be a back 5 while Kante and Bakayoko will partner up in front of the backline. They will leave Lukaku little to no space and place constant pressure on the likes of Sanchez and Martial. A single goal will win this one.
Best: Both Teams To Score – NO ($1.80)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($3.00)
EFL Cup Final 2018
Arsenal v Man City – Mon 3:30am
The Gunners have their work cut out for them over the next week with back to back matches against City, starting with the EFL Cup Final. Arsenal are now 8 points adrift of 4th placed Chelsea and a spot in the coveted Champions League for next season is looking unlikely. It makes the EFL Cup even more important and could provide Wenger with an opportunity to salvage the season. The Gunners have won just 4 of their last 11 across all competitions and have not played well away from Emirates Stadium this season winning just 1 of their last 7 away games.
What’s worse is that City will be fired up following a shock loss to Wigan in the FA Cup. Delph got himself sent off following a brain explosion and it cost his side dearly. A month ago we saw Liverpool end their chance to match the ‘Invincibles’ and this time we saw Delph end his sides chance of winning a historic quadruple! Prior to that match City had been in sublime form and had followed up a 5-1 win over Leicester with a 4-0 thrashing away to Basel.
In a winner takes all match The Wolf is predicting a handful of goals! Both teams have scored in the last 6 meetings between the two clubs with the Overs saluting in 8 of the last 11. There has been an average of 3.7 goals per game in that stretch and this is the most potent Man City side we have ever seen. City will be lifting their first of many trophies under Pep Guardiola.
Best: Over 2.5 goals ($1.50)
Other: HT/FT – Man City/Man City ($2.35)
Value: Man City Over 3.5 goals ($5.00)
Gameweek 28 Best Bets
Gameweek 27: 6-4
Gameweek 27 ROI: 117.90%
Overall ROI: 96.43%
Gameweek 27: 2-8
Gameweek 27 ROI: 68.50%
Overall ROI: 78.62%
Overall ROI: 87.52%