EPL Gameweek 27 Preview and Tips
The Wolf was all over Watford at $6.50 against Chelsea! The Blues loss means they are now down to 4th and just a point clear of Tottenham. Arsenal also closed the gap with a big win over Everton while the bottom 3 (Stoke, Huddersfield and West Brom) all lost. This week we kick things off with the London Derby between Tottenham and Arsenal.
EPL Feature Previews
Tottenham v Arsenal – (Sat 11:30pm)
Spurs managed to walk away with a point from their trip to Anfield thanks to a late equaliser while Arsenal’s season, and future, seems to have been revived! It is early days yet but Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan will more than just boost the Gunners attack and with Ozil putting pen to paper on an extension they will also have stability. They are still a holding midfielder and world class defender away from challenging but it is a huge result when you consider that they were set to lose Sanchez and Ozil for nothing. Arsenal have one of the best home records in the league this season but it is their away form which has been well below par. They have won just 1 of their last 6 away EPL fixtures and have lost their last two – away to Bournemouth and Swansea of all teams. Their 15 away goals is less than half what Liverpool have scored in their travels and leaves them exposed away to a Spurs side that have conceded just 9 goals at home. Under 2.5 goals is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between the two sides across all competitions and despite all of the firepower on the field, The Wolf will be sticking with it.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($2.50)
Value: Both Teams To Score – NO ($2.60)
Man City v Leicester – (Sun 4:30am)
Sterling’s miss of the season went on to cost City as they dropped points away to Burnley but The Wolf says to get used to the league leader’s taking it easy in the closing stages of the season. Their focus will now shift to the UCL, FA Cup and League Cup as the chase for trophies begins. Their 13 point buffer at the top will allow them to do so and this may just be one of those fixtures where Guardiola brings off his players early. They will travel to Switzerland midweek and The Wolf expects some complacency. City are undefeated in their last 25 Premier League matches at Etihad Stadium but it is their attack which has allowed them to maintain that record. They have conceded in 6 of their last 8 league games at home but scored at least 3 in each of their last 5. The Foxes meanwhile have found the back of the net in 8 of their last 9 EPL away games which makes both teams to score red hot value.
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.72)
Value: Leicester Over 1.5 goals ($4.75)
Newcastle v Man Utd – (Mon 1:15am)
The Magpies are hovering just above the drop zone with wins in only 2 of their last 17 league games. They have managed to earn points in 3 of their last 4 but after taking the lead against both Palace and Burnley, they failed to hold on for all 3 points. They now host a United outfit that are very tough to break down. The Red Devils have clean sheets in 7 of their last 8 across all competitions and the addition of Sanchez has reinvigorated their attack. The trio of Martial, Lingard and Sanchez have truckloads of pace and they all like to move the ball quickly – crucial in breaking down opposing defences. The Under is 5-1 in Man Utd’s last 6 EPL games and with additional commitments to come (FA Cup and UCL) they will look to shut this one down early.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.72)
Value: Under 2.5 goals & Man Utd WIN ($3.40)
Southampton v Liverpool – (Mon 3:30am)
This has been dubbed as Southampton A versus Southampton B in recent seasons as Liverpool have stripped their less fancied opponents of virtually all of their star talent. Mane, Clyne, Lovren, Lallana, Lambert and Van Dijk are all products of Southampton. The Wolf says this is the main reason why the bulk of their recent clashes has been extremely tight. The last 5 matches between them across all competitions have produced a total of just 5 goals – a complete anomaly when you consider that Liverpool games average almost 3.5 goals per game. A deeper dive reveals that 4 of the last 5 have produced no more than a single goal and The Wolf believes than one goal could win this. Southampton have gone 7 matches at home without scoring multiple goals and we will see them employ a very defensive mentality in this one. Cedrid and Bertrand hold the key defensively. They must limit the effectiveness of Mane and Salah out wide, restricting Liverpool to shots from range. A boisterous St Mary’s crowd will help frustrate the visitors and The Wolf says there will be no more than a single goal between them. The Unders screams value in this one!
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($2.20)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($4.25)
Chelsea v West Brom – (Tue 7:00am)
The Wolf was all over Watford to beat Chelsea last week and he says the Blues struggles are not over just yet. Since Christmas, West Brom have held Everton and Arsenal to draws while registering wins over Brighton and away to Liverpool! Chelsea on the other hand have lost 3 of their last 4 across all competitions and conceded an extraordinary 7 goals in their last two matches. In what is another night game, The Wolf says Conte’s negative tactics will again cost his side. He fell into the back three by chance in the 3-0 loss to Arsenal in Sep 2016 and has not changed a single thing since! He continues to play a double holding midfield with Alonso and Moses as supposed wing backs. We have also seen him play Hazard as a false number 9 in what is a team that virtually attacks with just 3 players! He has been forced into a change with Bakayoko being suspended and Giroud looks set to get a start. Despite their recent run they have still been installed as $1.33 favourites to win. The Wolf will again be taking their opponent in the double chance market.
Best: 1st Half Result – Draw ($2.50)
Value: Double Chance – Draw or West Brom ($2.90)
Gameweek 27 Best Bets
Gameweek 26: 6-4
Gameweek 26 ROI: 111.43%
Overall ROI: 95.60%
Gameweek 26: 4-6
Gameweek 20 ROI: 124.50%
Overall ROI: 79.01%
Overall ROI: 87.31%