EPL Gameweek 2
We had out fair share of surprises in the opening round of the EPL with the reigning champions Chelsea losing at home, Liverpool dropping points on the road and newly promoted Huddersfield winning their first ever EPL match. Chelsea look to be in a spot of bother early and will take on Spurs this week with a handful of regular starters out to either suspension or injury. Arsenal have a tough trip against Stoke while City and Everton clash in the final game of the round. The Wolf has marked both teams to score in the Swansea/Man Utd clash as his best of the week.
EPL Match Previews
Swansea v Man Utd – (Sat 9:30pm)
Admittedly it was a good start to the season for the Red Devils but The Wolf warns us not to read too much into it. Lukaku bagged a brace, Pogba and Martial also got on the score-sheet while Mkhitaryan was instrumental in the hole. With Matic in the hole we will now see United line up with a 4-1-4-1 formation – especially at home where they are able to maintain 60% possession. We are yet to see what they do on the road and Wales is not a place they have travelled well to. Swansea have won 2 of their last 3 at home to Man Utd and The Wolf has dug up some very interesting stats. Both teams have found the back of the net in 10 of the last 11 meetings across all competitions with Swansea scoring two or more in 3 of their last 6 EPL encounters. The Swans are undefeated in their last 6 league matches and have won their last 3 at Liberty Stadium and 6 of their last 8. They have scored multiple goals in 5 of those 8 matches and are a different team at home. They may also be boosted by the addition of Llorente who returned to full training this week. He has scored in his last 3 home games and led the Swans with 15 goals last season. The prices on offer for the Swans to score are insane!
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($2.35)
Value: Swansea Over 1.5 goals ($7.00)
Bournemouth v Watford – (Sun 12:00am)
The last two seasons have been a classic case of survive and thrive for Bournemouth. They managed to avoid relegation in their first season of top flight football before a remarkable run to finish 9th last season. It came on the back of 55 goals – the 7th best attack in the league. They were able to sign Ake after having him on loan and get Jermaine Defoe on a free. The problem is that they are currently without Stanislas who was their focal point in attack and Callum Wilson who was brilliant early. Meanwhile Watford showed us exactly what they are about last week. They took it to the Reds and will not be leaving anything in the bag this season. They will to improve away from home. They conceded 39 goals away from home (2nd most) and failed to scored in 6 of their last 7 road games. The Cherries have won 4 of their last 6 at home. These two have drawn their last 4 EPL matches and have shared the points in 6 of their last 7 dating back to their battles in the Championship. With Bournemouth down on troops and Watford’s result against Liverpool it is hard to split them. Draw.
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.61)
Value: Draw ($3.30)
Burnley v West Brom – (Sun 12:00am)
At one stage last season Burnely managed to win 7 of 8 home games. It help them to 33 points at home (9th most in league) and was the reason they were able to survive. They took full advantage against a 10 man Chelsea last week but The Wolf has questions over whether they can succeed following the departure of Michael Keane and Andre Gray. They are unlikely to be tested this week when they take on a Tony Pulis built defensive Baggies unit. West Brom are hardly a side that floods numbers forward but they will be one of the best defensive sides outside the top 6 this season. With Yacob and Livermore playing in front of Dawson, Brunt and co we will see very few bottom half teams get all 3 points against them. The Baggies had 7 draws away from home last season (tied most) and one of them came here at Turf Moor. Nyom will have a job to do on the elusive Robbie Brady and if their recent encounters are anything to go by this script will not go as predicted. For some unknown reason there have been a tonne of goals when these sides meet! There have been 4 or more goals in their last 6 encounters across all competitions and Over 2.5 goals has saluted in their last 10 meetings! The Baggies have scored multiple goals in 10 of the last 13 meetings including a total 12 in the last 4. There will be goals!
Best: Over 2.5 goals ($2.50)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($5.00)
Leicester v Brighton – (Sun 12:00am)
Leicester will still be trying to figure out how they walked away from the Emirates without a single point after leading Arsenal with a little over 5 minutes to play. The Foxes will find the back of the net with regularity thanks to their expansive style and aerial prowess in both general play and set pieces. They will continue to have a problem against sides that have the ability to play short intricate passes in and around the box. Arsenal and Spurs are the last two sides they faced that can do so and they conceded a combined 10 goals. Luckily Brighton don’t pose that threat and the champions of two season ago will be able to get their first win of the campaign. Leicester have won 5 of their last 7 home games in the league so look for the King Power Stasdium to be buzzing.
Best: HT/FT – Leicester/Leicester ($2.60)
Value: Correct Score – Leicester 3-0 ($13.00)
Liverpool v C.Palace – (Sun 12:00am)
The Wolf sent out a stern warning about Liverpool in his season preview and they made far from the ideal start to the season. Mane, Firmino and new signing Salah all looked fantastic but as we have seen in recent years the Reds have no problems finding the back of the net. The problem lies in their back 4. Clyne couldn’t return soon enough while the pairing of Matip and Lovren just isn’t going to cut it. With Coutinho set to depart for the Nou Camp one can only hope that the money obtained will be spent on targeting at least one world class defender. Their history against Palace tells the story. Liverpool have won just 6 of their last 16 against Palace across all competitions and have lost their last 3 at home to Palace in the league. Palace have scored multiple goals in 7 of their last 10 against the Reds with 3 or more total match goals in all of those matches. A Benteke double sank the Reds in the corresponding fixture last season and has scored the winning goal in 2 of the last 3 encounters – once for each team. Goals, goals, goals!
Best: Over 3.5 goals ($2.30)
Value: C. Palace Over 1.5 goals ($4.20)
Southampton v West Ham – (Sun 12:00am)
One of a select few teams to open the season with back to back home games Southampton will be hoping to make it count this time around. They should have collected all 3 points against Swansea and will host a Hammers side that is likely to be without Lanzini, Antonio and Kouyate. Noble tried his gut out at Old Trafford last week with Arnautovic, their new addition, adding some spark but with not enough bodies on deck they will struggle to get a foot into this game. Southampton had 14 clean sheets last season but they continue to struggle finding the back of the net. The Saints have failed to score in their last 6 EPL matches at St Mary’s Stadium and have failed to score multiple goals in 5 of their last 6 against the Hammers. The Wolf has them digging out a 1-0 win.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value: Under 2.5 goals & Southampton WIN ($3.75)
Stoke v Arsenal – (Sun 2:30am)
The Gunners got out of jail against Leicester with two goals in as many minutes handing them all 3 points. One thing that we have learnt over the last 24 months is that the Arsenal backline crumbles when Koscielny is off the field. It was most evident when he was sent off in the Champions League against Bayern Munich and his absence was again felt on the weekend. He will continue to serve his ban this weekend and that opens the door for Stoke to throw everything at them. Arsenal did the double over Stoke last season but they have won just 1 of their last 7 league trips away to the Potters. Stoke were uncharacteristically sloppy at home last season but they looked a very controlled team despite losing to Everton. Allen and Fletcher provide energy and ball winning ability in the centre with Zouma a great addition next to Cameron and Shawcross. Stoke are one of the biggest teams in the league in terms of size and aerial ability and they will make it very tough for Arsenal by playing very compact and forcing them wide. This will limit the short passing between Ozil, Ramsey and Lacazette which will only help their cause. The Potters are a huge price and The Wolf sdays they can surprise Arsene’s Gunners.
Best: Double Chance – Stoke or Draw ($2.10)
Value: Stoke WIN ($5.00)
Huddersfield v Newcastle – (Sun 10:30pm)
Newcastle were the dominant side in The Championship last season but the Huddersfield fairy tale continues. After winning in a dramatic playoff to gain promotion they won their first ever Premier League match in stunning fashion at Selhurst Park. The Magpies were gallant in defeat despite having Shelvey sent early in the second half. They will be making will several changes with Dummett and Lejeune picking up injuries. Colback is likely to fill the hole left by Shelvey and his battle with opposing number Aaron Mooy will be a beauty. The Aussie was instrumental last week and looked far from out of place in top flight football. He was involved in everything and his supply was second to none! Shelvey’s absence should really open things up in the middle of the park and The Wolf expects a very open affair as a result. With a total of 7 goals in their two Championship clashes last season they will not be shy in front of goal.
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.90)
Value: Over 2.5 goals ($2.20)
Tottenham v Chelsea – (Mon 1:00am)
It was a contrasting opening round for two of the title contenders. Spurs continues where they left off last season but for the reigning premier’s things could not have gone worse. Captain Gary Cahill was given a straight red inside the opening quarter of an hour with Burnley running riot to take a 3-0 lead. A Morata goal on debut gave Chelsea a lifeline but Fabregas was then sent as the Blues finished with 9 players. As a result they will face their London rivals without Cahill, Fabregas, Hazard and Perdo. Continuity was the key to their success last year and The Wolf says this will be a genuine test. Tottenham are undefeated in their last 4 home EPL fixtures against Chelsea and will be looking to carry that form to their temporary home – Wembley. The way Spurs are playing right now you would want to have something on them no matter who, or where they are playing. The Eriksen, Alli and Kane show was in full force last week. Tottenham have scored at least 2 goals in 12 of their last 14 EPL fixtures and The Wolf says that streak will continue.
Best: Tottenham WIN ($1.95)
Value: Teams To Score – Tottenham Only ($3.40)
Man City v Everton – (Tue 5:00am)
City got their campaign off to the ideal start with a comfortable win over Brighton. Most surprisingly we saw Pep start with both Aguero and Jesus up front in what was more of a 5-3-2 formation. Walker and Danilo played in advanced wing back roles, Fernadinho held midfield on his own while Be Bruyne and Silva were able to run free in behind the forward duo. The Wolf has said it time and time again. The combination between Aguero and Silva is the most dangerous in the league and if they get going they will take some stopping. Everton have been boosted by the signing of Sigurdsson for £45m and his addition will make them an attacking force. They played a very controlled brand of football in the win over Stoke with Rooney celebrating his return to Goodison Park with the solitary goal. Everton have not travelled well in recent times. They are winless in their last 8 away EPL matches and have scored just 6 goals in that stretch. With Barkley and Bolasie still sidelined and Gilfy unlikely to take part it is hard to see them creating enough chances to challenge City. The Manchester side are unbeaten in their last 12 league games at Etihad Stadium and have scored multiple goals in 9 of those matches. City will go through the motions quite comfortably.
Best: Teams To Score – Man City Only ($2.15)
Value: Man City Win Both Halves ($2.45)
Gameweek 1: 4-6
Gameweek 1 ROI: 71.2%
Overall ROI: 71.2%
Gameweek 1: 3-5
Gameweek 1 ROI: 111.11%
Overall ROI: 111.11%
Overall ROI: 91.10%